If you’ve lived in Douglas County for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up to a crisp, sunny morning, and by dinner time, you’re digging through the hall closet for that heavy parka you swore you wouldn't need until February. Honestly, trying to pin down a long-term Lawrence Kansas weather forecast is kinda like trying to predict which way a Kansas basketball game will go in the final two minutes—it’s high-stakes, unpredictable, and usually involves a lot of shouting at the screen.
Right now, we are sitting in the thick of a classic January stretch. As of Sunday night, January 18, 2026, the air in Lawrence is hovering right at 32°F. It’s a bit damp out there too, with humidity sitting at 75%. If you’re heading out late, it feels more like 27°F thanks to a light 5 mph breeze coming off the northwest. It’s that biting, "hunker down" kind of cold that makes a bowl of chili at Free State Brewing sound like the only logical life choice.
The Week Ahead: A Rollercoaster in Douglas County
Looking at the upcoming week, we aren't exactly catching a break. Tomorrow, Monday, January 19, is going to be a wake-up call for anyone who forgot we’re in the dead of winter. We’re looking at a high of only 24°F. That’s it. Even with the sun out, it’s going to stay frigid.
The wind is picking up too, blowing from the northwest at 12 mph. When you combine those temperatures with the wind chill, Monday morning is going to feel pretty brutal. You’ve probably noticed the pattern by now: sunny skies in Kansas winters often mean the coldest air is settling in.
But wait—don't pack away the lighter layers just yet. By Tuesday and Wednesday, things take a weird turn. We’re actually going to see highs climb back into the mid-40s. 45°F on Tuesday and 46°F on Wednesday. It’s that "fool's spring" moment we get every year where you think maybe, just maybe, winter is losing its grip.
Why the Forecast Flips So Fast
Why does this happen? Basically, Lawrence is caught in a geographical tug-of-war. We are perfectly positioned to get blasted by Arctic air sliding down from Canada, but we’re also just close enough to the Gulf of Mexico to catch occasional warm, moist air masses moving north.
When the Jet Stream dips south of us, we’re in the freezer. When it wobbles back north, we get those 40-degree "heatwaves." It’s a dynamic that keeps local meteorologists in Topeka and Kansas City on their toes.
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Is Snow on the Way?
Everyone wants to know about the white stuff. Looking at the current data, the chance of precipitation for the next few days is pretty low—around 5% to 10%. However, Friday and Saturday are looking a lot more interesting.
The temperature is expected to plummet again on Friday, January 23, with a high of only 19°F and a low of 4°F. Saturday, January 24, looks even colder, with a high of 11°F and snow showers becoming more likely (about a 35% chance). If you have weekend plans, you might want to keep an eye on the Saturday morning totals. Even a light dusting at these temperatures can turn the intersection of 23rd and Iowa into a skating rink.
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How to Survive a Lawrence Winter
Honestly, the best way to handle a Lawrence Kansas weather forecast is to stop looking for a "normal" day. There isn't one.
- Layering is a survival skill. If you’re a student at KU walking up the hill, you need a windbreaker over a hoodie. The wind at the top of Mount Oread is consistently 5-10 mph stronger than it is downtown.
- Watch the humidity. 75% humidity at freezing temperatures (32°F) feels way worse than 30% humidity at 20°F. That "wet cold" gets into your bones and stays there.
- Check the wind direction. If the wind is coming from the north or northwest, it’s going to be sharp. If it shifts south, even if the temperature is low, the "bite" usually softens.
Real Talk on the Local Climate
Historically, January is our driest month, averaging only about 1.2 inches of total precipitation. Most of that comes in the form of light snow or the occasional freezing drizzle. We aren't in the heavy spring rain season yet (looking at you, May), but the lack of moisture makes the air feel incredibly thin and dry.
What most people get wrong about Kansas winters is thinking it’s just one long, grey stretch. It’s actually quite sunny—January averages about 50% clear or partly cloudy days. The problem is that the sun is a bit of a liar this time of year; it looks beautiful through the window, but the thermometer tells a different story.
Actionable Next Steps for Lawrencians
Since we're staring down a pretty significant temperature drop toward the end of the week, here is what you should actually do:
- Drip those faucets. When we hit that low of 4°F on Friday night, older homes in the Oread or Old West Lawrence neighborhoods are at high risk for frozen pipes. A slow drip can save you a $500 plumbing bill.
- Check your tires. Cold air causes tire pressure to drop. If your "low air" light hasn't come on yet, it probably will by Monday morning when we hit that 12°F low.
- Prep the "Blizzard of Oz." The city’s snowplow fleet is ready, but residential streets don't usually get plowed until we see at least 2 inches of accumulation. If you live on a side street, make sure you have a shovel and some salt ready for Saturday’s potential snow showers.
- Support local. Cold snaps are the perfect time to grab a coffee at 1900 Barker or a bowl of ramen at Yokohama. It keeps the local economy moving while you stay warm.
Kansas weather isn't for the faint of heart, but at least it's never boring. Keep your eyes on the sky and your heavy coat near the door.