It is early 2026, and if you look at the latest Trump Harris polls, you’ll see a landscape that looks nothing like the fever dream of the 2024 election cycle. Honestly, the vibe has shifted. We aren't talking about "who will win" anymore because that question was answered when Donald Trump took the oath of office for the second time last January.
Now, the numbers are about something different: staying power.
People keep trying to compare Kamala Harris’s current standing with her 2024 performance, but that’s basically apples and oranges at this point. As we head toward the 2026 midterms, the data shows a country that is deeply, almost pathologically, split. You've got a President whose approval rating has taken some hits since his inauguration, and a former Vice President who is trying to figure out if she’s still the face of the opposition.
The Reality of the Approval Slide
Let’s talk about the actual numbers coming out of the big firms like Gallup and Quinnipiac. When Trump won in 2024, he did it with 49.8% of the popular vote—the first time a Republican had pulled that off since 2004. He started his second term with a respectable 47% approval rating.
But man, the honeymoon was short.
By the time we hit December 2025, Gallup had him down at 36%. That is a massive slide. If you’re looking for the latest Trump Harris polls to see who "voters prefer" right now, you have to look at how people feel about the direction of the country. A recent Ipsos poll shows that about three in five Americans think we’re on the "wrong track."
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Why the drop? It’s the economy, obviously. It’s always the economy.
Even though Trump’s been hitting the airwaves—he recently gave a speech in Michigan claiming the "greatest first year in history"—the public isn't totally buying it. While GDP grew by 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, about half of the country still feels like we’re in a recession. That's a wild gap between data and "feelings," but in politics, feelings are what end up in the ballot box.
Harris and the Shadow of 2024
On the other side, Kamala Harris hasn't just disappeared into the California sunset. The latest Trump Harris polls often function as a "what if" or a "who do you trust more" metric. In the 2024 results, Harris held onto 79% of Joe Biden’s 2020 voters, but she lost significant ground with Hispanic and Black men.
Specifically, Pew Research found that Trump actually fought to near parity with Hispanic voters, getting 48% to Harris’s 51%. That was a tectonic shift.
Right now, Harris is navigating a Democratic party that is doing some serious soul-searching. Quinnipiac recently showed that while Democrats in Congress have record-low job approval, voters might still lean toward them in the 2026 midterms just as a "check" on Trump’s power. Basically, the "Harris vs. Trump" dynamic has evolved into "The Resistance vs. The MAGA Mandate."
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The Issues Driving the 2026 Numbers
If you want to understand the latest Trump Harris polls, you have to look at the weirdly specific issues that are popping up. It’s not just about "the border" anymore.
- The Greenland Factor: In a move that sounds like a repeat of 2019 but with more intensity, the administration’s talk about acquiring Greenland has actually shown up in the polls. An Ipsos survey from mid-January 2026 found that 71% of Americans think using military force to take Greenland is a bad idea. Only 17% actually approve of the effort to acquire it at all.
- Tariffs and Prices: Trump’s signature 10% baseline tariff has been a lightning rod. While he calls it a success, 75% of Americans—including 56% of Republicans—believe these tariffs are actually driving up the prices of their groceries and Amazon packages.
- The "Care" Gap: This is a stinging one for the White House. Only 38% of people believe Trump "cares about people like you," while 62% think he doesn’t. In the latest Trump Harris polls and sentiment trackers, this "empathy gap" is where the Democrats are trying to rebuild their brand.
What Most People Get Wrong
People assume that because Trump’s approval is in the mid-30s, the 2026 midterms are a slam dunk for the Democrats. That is a huge mistake.
The Republican base is still incredibly locked in. We’re talking 91% approval among Republicans at the start of the year, dipping only slightly to 86% by the end of 2025. That is a wall of support that doesn't crack. The real movement is with the independents. Over the course of 2025, Trump’s support among self-identified independents fell by 21 percentage points.
That is where the 2026 election will be won or lost.
The 2026 Midterm Outlook
We are looking at a "pendulum" election. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in the first midterm. With the latest Trump Harris polls showing deep dissatisfaction with the cost of living, the GOP is looking at a tough map.
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However, the Democrats have their own problems. They’re leading among independents by 11 points right now, but they haven't settled on a unified message beyond "Trump is going too far."
A November 2025 Quinnipiac poll found that a majority of voters think Trump’s use of presidential power goes too far, yet those same voters gave Congressional Democrats a record-low approval rating. It’s a "plague on both your houses" situation.
Actionable Insights for Following the Data
If you’re trying to make sense of the political noise over the next few months, don’t just look at the top-line approval number. It doesn't tell the whole story.
- Watch the "Right Track/Wrong Track" metric. If this stays below 30% "Right Track," the incumbent party almost always gets hammered in the midterms.
- Keep an eye on the "Generic Congressional Ballot." This is often a better predictor of the 2026 outcome than the latest Trump Harris polls because it measures party loyalty rather than individual personality.
- Follow the Federal Reserve drama. Trump’s attempt to exert control over Jerome Powell is a major subplot that could freak out the markets, and a stock market dip is the one thing that could alienate his remaining moderate supporters.
- Check the regional shifts. The 2024 election showed huge gains for Trump in urban areas (he got 33% in cities). If that starts to revert to the mean in 2026, the "MAGA coalition" might be more fragile than it looks.
The reality of 2026 is that the country is exhausted. The polls reflect a public that is skeptical of the "Greatest First Year" rhetoric but also unsure if the alternative is any better. Whether it's the cost of eggs or the bizarre debate over Greenland, the numbers show a nation that is still waiting for the stability it was promised.
Stay tuned to the swing state specific polls—places like Pennsylvania and Michigan—where the margins are still razor-thin. That's where the real story is hiding.
Next Steps:
- Monitor the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly inflation reports, as these are the primary drivers of the approval ratings seen in the latest Trump Harris polls.
- Compare the 2024 certified election results with current swing state "favorability" ratings to identify which parts of the 2024 Trump coalition are currently "at risk" for the 2026 midterms.