The calendar says January, but the ocean hasn't received the memo. While most people are hunkering down for the tail end of winter, a tropical system named Ada is currently making headlines in the Western Pacific. It’s the first real test for weather agencies in 2026.
Honestly, seeing a named storm this early in the year feels weird. It’s rare, but not impossible. Right now, the latest tropical storm update indicates that Tropical Depression Ada—also known as 01W—is churning just east of the Philippines. It’s not a monster yet. But it is gathering steam.
💡 You might also like: Beil Didier Funeral Home Obits: What Most People Get Wrong
What's Happening with Tropical Depression Ada Right Now?
As of Wednesday, January 14, 2026, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has its hands full. They've already hoisted Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 over several areas. We’re talking about Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and parts of Mindanao. Basically, if you're in the Visayas or Caraga regions, you're likely already seeing the outer bands.
The storm is currently packing sustained winds of about 45 km/h. It’s moving northwest at a steady clip. Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) expect it to intensify into a full-fledged tropical storm within the next 24 hours.
Here’s the thing: Ada is fighting some dry air.
Meteorologists call this "entrainment." It's when dry, thirsty air from the west tries to choke the storm’s core. If the dry air wins, Ada stays a messy rainmaker. If the storm’s internal heat engine wins, we could see a much more organized system by the time it nears Samar and Catanduanes this weekend.
The Forecast Track: Where is Ada Headed?
Predicting a January storm is like trying to guess where a toddler is running in a bouncy house. There's a lot of "competing steering flow."
To the east, there’s a deep-layer subtropical ridge pushing it one way. To the west, over Vietnam, another ridge is building. This "tug-of-war" is why the track looks a bit shaky after the 72-hour mark.
🔗 Read more: Stuck in the Lincoln Tunnel? What Really Happened With the Accident on Lincoln Tunnel Today
- Friday, Jan 16: Expected landfall or close brush with Eastern Visayas.
- Saturday, Jan 17: Movement toward Catanduanes.
- Sunday, Jan 18: A projected "re-curve" toward the northeast, heading back out to sea.
Benison Estareja from PAGASA mentioned in a recent briefing that while they aren't expecting catastrophic flooding just yet, the "scattered rains" are still a major concern for landslide-prone areas. Mindanao has already been through the ringer lately with recent landslides claiming lives in Davao de Oro. Another inch of rain is the last thing those hillsides need.
Why January Storms are Such a Curveball
We usually think of June through November as the danger zone. But the latest tropical storm update reminds us that nature doesn't follow our spreadsheets.
In the Atlantic, it's dead quiet—as it should be. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) isn't even issuing regular outlooks right now. But exactly ten years ago today, in 2016, Hurricane Alex shocked everyone by forming in the middle of January. It was only the eighth such storm in the Atlantic since 1851.
In the Pacific, the "season" never truly ends. It just sleeps.
We are currently coming out of a weak La Niña cycle from 2025. This means the waters near the Philippines are still plenty warm—well above the $26^\circ\text{C}$ threshold needed for a storm to survive.
What This Means for the Rest of 2026
Does Ada mean we're in for a brutal year? Not necessarily.
Early-season storms are often "one-offs." However, the 2026 Atlantic season is already being scrutinized by groups like Tropical Storm Risk (TSR). Their early projections suggest a "near-normal" year with about 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. They're watching the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) state closely. If we flip from this neutral phase into a full El Niño by late 2026, it could actually suppress Atlantic activity while fueling more Pacific monsters.
Actionable Steps for Those in the Path
If you are in the Philippines or have family there, don't wait for "Signal No. 2" to act.
- Check the rain saturation. If your area has seen heavy rain in the last 48 hours, the soil is already heavy. Small storms trigger big landslides.
- Verify your roof. Tropical storms bring "Signal 1" winds, which are enough to peel back loose corrugated iron sheets.
- Charge everything. January storms often catch local power grids off guard because maintenance crews aren't in "peak season" mode.
- Monitor the re-curve. If the storm doesn't turn northeast as predicted on Sunday, Bicol and Luzon could be in for a very wet Monday.
Stay tuned to official channels like PAGASA or the JTWC. Weather apps are great for a quick look, but for life-safety decisions, you want the local experts who understand the terrain. Ada might be a "small" storm on paper, but in the tropics, there’s no such thing as a small amount of water.