Texas politics is a weird beast. If you've been watching the news lately, you probably think the upcoming election is just another "is Texas finally turning blue?" cycle. Honestly, it’s not that simple anymore. We’re looking at the latest Texas senate polls and they are telling a story that isn’t just about Democrats versus Republicans. It is a civil war within the GOP, and the outcome might actually be decided before we even get to November.
The March 3, 2026 primary is coming up fast. It’s basically tomorrow in political time.
John Cornyn has been in that seat since 2002. He's a fixture. But the latest numbers show he’s in the fight of his life against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt. If you think an incumbent is always safe in Texas, you haven’t been paying attention to how much the "Trump Movement" has changed the internal math of the state.
The Republican Primary: A Three-Way Collision
Right now, the GOP primary is essentially a dead heat. Depending on which poll you look at, Ken Paxton is either slightly ahead or neck-and-neck with Cornyn. A December 2025 survey from Pulse Decision Science put both Cornyn and Paxton at 38%, with Wesley Hunt trailing at 16%.
Think about that for a second. An incumbent who has won four terms is tied with a guy who was impeached (and then acquitted) just a couple of years ago.
It gets weirder when you look at the "Trump factor." Trump hasn't officially picked a side yet, but he’s been vocal about his distaste for Cornyn’s past votes on gun safety and Ukraine aid. Paxton is leaning hard into the "Trump loyalist" brand. Meanwhile, Wesley Hunt is positioning himself as the fresh alternative—a younger, Black Republican veteran who can bridge the gap between the establishment and the MAGA base.
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The math is simple: if no one gets 50% in March, we go to a runoff in May. In a runoff, the most motivated, fringe voters usually show up. That’s where things get dangerous for a traditional Republican like Cornyn.
What the Latest Texas Senate Polls Say About the Democrats
On the other side of the aisle, the drama is just as high. Colin Allred, who many expected to take another shot at the Senate after his 2024 run, actually dropped out of the race in December. Why? Because Jasmine Crockett entered the fray.
Allred basically said he wanted to avoid a messy runoff that would drain Democratic resources. Now, Crockett is facing off against State Representative James Talarico.
- Jasmine Crockett: She’s got the name ID. People know her from national TV. She’s a fighter. But she’s also polarizing.
- James Talarico: He’s the "policy guy." He’s a former teacher from Austin and has a much higher favorability rating among voters who actually know who he is.
According to University of Houston/Texas Southern University data, Crockett leads the primary with about 31%, but Talarico is catching up at 25%. The problem for Democrats? About 50% of Texas voters say they’d support a generic Republican, while only 41% say they’d support a generic Democrat. That 9-point gap is the "Texas Wall" that Democrats have failed to climb since 1994.
Can a Democrat Actually Win This Time?
You hear this every two years. "Texas is a swing state!" Well, the polls suggest it's more like a "tilting" state.
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In head-to-head matchups for the general election, the latest Texas senate polls show a very tight race if Ken Paxton is the nominee.
- Cornyn vs. Crockett: Cornyn +8
- Paxton vs. Crockett: Paxton +2
Wait, did you see that? Paxton leads by a much smaller margin. Voters who identify as "Traditional Republicans" or "Independents" are wary of Paxton’s legal baggage. If Paxton wins the primary, the Democrats actually have a statistical path to victory. If Cornyn wins the primary, the door mostly shuts for the Dems.
The Issues Moving the Needle
It’s not just about personalities. The polling shows two very different worlds depending on who you ask.
- For Republicans: It's the economy (33%) and immigration (30%). These voters are focused on the border and the cost of living.
- For Democrats: The top issue is "threats to democracy" (31%) followed by the economy (26%).
This disconnect is why the campaigns feel like they are talking past each other. Paxton talks about "RINO" betrayals. Crockett talks about voting rights and "fighting the MAGA machine." Talarico talks about school funding and the "failed leadership" in Austin.
What Most People Get Wrong
People assume Texas is just "red." It’s actually a "low turnout" state.
The latest data from Change Research shows that Democratic enthusiasm is currently higher (63% saying they are a "10/10" on enthusiasm) than Republican enthusiasm (50%).
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But—and this is a big but—the people who are "less enthusiastic" (the 6-to-9 out of 10s) are overwhelmingly Republican. If those people decide to stay home because they hate both options, or if they decide to show up just to block the other side, that’s where the shift happens.
Actionable Insights for Texas Voters
If you're trying to make sense of the noise, here's what you actually need to do to stay informed and ready for the cycle:
- Check Your Registration Status: Texas has some of the strictest voter registration laws. You must be registered 30 days before the March 3 primary. If you've moved recently, you need to update your address now.
- Decide on a Primary: Remember, in Texas, you don't register by party, but you can only vote in one primary. If you want a say in the Cornyn/Paxton/Hunt battle, you must ask for a Republican ballot. You cannot vote in the Republican primary and then vote in a Democratic runoff.
- Watch the Endorsements: The single biggest "poll mover" left is Donald Trump. If he endorses Paxton, expect Paxton's numbers to jump by 5-10 points overnight. If he stays neutral, Cornyn’s fundraising advantage might carry him through.
- Ignore "Generic" Polls: Look for polls of "Likely Voters" (LV), not "Registered Voters" (RV). In Texas, there is a massive gap between who is registered and who actually shows up. Likely voter polls are much more accurate in this state.
The 2026 race is going to be the most expensive in Texas history. Between Paxton's legal drama, Cornyn's establishment might, and the rise of new Democratic stars like Crockett and Talarico, the latest Texas senate polls are just the beginning of a very long, very loud year.
Keep an eye on the fundraising reports due in late January; money usually predicts the "ground game" that polls can't always see.