Politics in 2026 feels like a fever dream that won’t break. Honestly, if you’re looking at the latest presidential polls by state, you’ve probably noticed the numbers look a bit... jagged. We aren't in a standard election cycle. There is no general election this November. Yet, the data coming out of places like North Carolina, Texas, and New Hampshire is buzzing like it's 2024 all over again.
People are restless. You can see it in the approval ratings and the early 2028 primary "shadow" campaigning.
The State of the Union (and the States)
Right now, President Trump’s second-term approval is sitting in a tough spot. According to the latest SSRS and Marist data from mid-January 2026, his national approval is hovering around 38% to 40%. That is a hard ceiling. It hasn't really budged much since late 2025.
But national numbers are basically a blunt instrument. They don't tell the real story of what’s happening on the ground in the places that actually decide who lives in the White House.
In North Carolina, the vibe is shifting. A recent Resonate study shows that "swing" isn't just a label there; it's a lifestyle. About 58% of voters in the Tar Heel State are terrified of an economic slowdown. Interestingly, while 45% of Republicans there are laser-focused on illegal immigration, 60% of Democrats are sweating over fuel and energy costs. These aren't just stats; they are the fault lines for the 2026 midterms and, eventually, 2028.
Texas is another weird one. You’ve got a Senate primary heating up where state Rep. James Talarico is leading Jasmine Crockett by about 9 points in the Democratic lane. But for the presidency? Trump’s "honeymoon" in the Lone Star State has cooled. Latino voters in South Texas—a group that famously trended red in 2024—are starting to show signs of "buyer's remorse" in some local polling.
The 2028 Shadow Primary is Already Here
It’s kinda wild to talk about 2028 when it’s only January 2026. But the polls don't lie. Candidates are already "testing the waters."
The Democratic Side
Gavin Newsom is essentially running a campaign without calling it one. He’s built a massive national network, and a Yahoo/YouGov poll put him at the front of the pack with 21% support among Democrats.
- Kamala Harris is right on his heels at 19%.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is holding steady in third.
- Pete Buttigieg remains a favorite in New Hampshire, where he actually leads Newsom in some early favorability snapshots.
New Hampshire is always the "canary in the coal mine." A Granite State poll from late 2025 showed Buttigieg with a staggering 81% favorability among likely Democratic primary voters. People there still love him.
The Republican Side
On the GOP side, it’s the JD Vance show. Period.
The Vice President is dominating the 2028 Republican primary polls. In New Hampshire, he’s sitting at 51% support. The next closest person? Nikki Haley at 9%. That is a gargantuan gap.
Vance has successfully positioned himself as the heir apparent. While other names like Ron DeSantis (8%) and Marco Rubio (5%) are in the mix, they are currently in the "background noise" category.
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Why the Polls are Acting Weird
Pollsters are struggling. You've probably heard this before, but in 2026, the "trust gap" is wider than ever.
Only about 37% of Americans in a recent AP-NORC poll say they approve of how the current administration is handling foreign policy. When you dig into the latest presidential polls by state, you see a nation that is profoundly polarized. In a Quinnipiac poll from January 14, 95% of Democrats think a President should get Congressional approval before military action. Only 54% of Republicans agree.
We aren't just disagreeing on candidates; we are disagreeing on how the job should even be done.
The Swing State Fatigue
The "Blue Wall" states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—are seeing a lot of "undecided" or "none of the above" responses. About 4 in 10 Americans say they wish they had options beyond the two major parties. This isn't just a fringe sentiment anymore. It's a mainstream headache for both the RNC and the DNC.
In Michigan, the "uncommitted" movement from 2024 hasn't really gone away. It’s just evolved into a general skepticism of the federal government.
Looking Ahead: Actionable Steps for the Political Junkie
If you're trying to make sense of this mess, don't just look at the top-line "Who would you vote for?" numbers. They don't mean much two years out.
Instead, watch the Right Track/Wrong Track numbers in specific states like Arizona and Georgia. If "Wrong Track" stays above 60% in those states through the 2026 midterms, the incumbent party is in for a world of hurt regardless of who the nominee is.
What to do now:
- Focus on the 2026 Midterms: The gubernatorial races in Texas (Abbott has a $106 million war chest!) and the Senate races in North Carolina are the real predictors for 2028.
- Ignore National Averages: A 40% approval rating in California means something very different than a 40% approval rating in Pennsylvania.
- Watch the "Disappointed" Metric: YouGov recently found that Democrats would be most "disappointed" if Kamala Harris (19%) or Bernie Sanders (18%) were the nominee. High disappointment floors are a candidate's silent killer.
The data shows a country that's exhausted. We are over-polled and under-satisfied. As we move further into 2026, the state-level data will continue to be more telling than any national headline. Keep an eye on the margins in the Sun Belt; that's where the next presidency will be won or lost.
Source References:
- Quinnipiac University National Poll (January 14, 2026)
- Marist Poll/NPR/PBS NewsHour (January 16, 2026)
- SSRS/CNN Opinion Panel (January 12, 2026)
- The Granite State Poll, University of New Hampshire (October 2025/January 2026 update)
- Resonate "Engaging North Carolina Primary Voters" (January 2026)