If you’ve been watching the headlines this week, it feels like the global trade system is basically being rewritten on a napkin in real-time. It’s chaotic. On Wednesday, January 14, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court did something that has everyone from Wall Street traders to small-town hardware store owners holding their breath: they said absolutely nothing.
For the second time in a week, the Court skipped over a ruling on the latest news on trump tariffs specifically regarding the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This isn’t just some dry legal technicality. It’s the difference between a massive refund for U.S. businesses or a permanent 10% to 25% price hike on basically everything you buy.
While the lawyers argue in D.C., the reality on the ground is getting weird. President Trump just dropped a bombshell on Truth Social earlier this week, claiming that any country doing business with Iran will now face an immediate 25% tariff on all their exports to the U.S. Honestly, it’s a lot to keep track of.
The SCOTUS Silence and the IEEPA Gamble
The big drama right now is centered on whether a President can actually use "emergency powers" to tax imports indefinitely. Back in April 2025, the administration rolled out a 10% baseline tariff on almost all imports. They followed that up with "reciprocal" rates—meaning if a country taxes our stuff at 50%, we tax theirs at 50%.
India is currently feeling the burn of this. Right now, U.S. tariffs on Indian goods have hit a staggering 50%. That’s a mix of a 25% reciprocal tariff and another 25% "secondary" penalty because India is still buying oil from Russia.
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If the Supreme Court strikes this down, we’re talking about billions of dollars in refunds. But here's the kicker: the administration is already planning a backup. If they lose the IEEPA case, they’ll likely just shift the same tariffs over to Section 232 (national security) or Section 301 (unfair trade practices). It’s basically a game of regulatory whack-a-mole.
Why Your Laptop Might Cost 34% More This Year
You’ve probably noticed that "inflation" is the word that won’t go away. While it was cooling down for a bit, these new trade barriers are acting like a localized heatwave for prices. In 2025, many companies ate the cost of the tariffs because they had massive stockpiles of old inventory.
That inventory is gone.
Now, the "tariff tax" is being passed directly to you. Recent data from the Consumer Technology Association suggests some pretty wild price jumps for 2026:
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- Laptops and Tablets: Prices are projected to climb by 34%.
- Video Game Consoles: This is the big one—a potential 69% increase.
- Smartphones: Expect to pay about 31% more than you did two years ago.
It’s not just tech, though. On New Year’s Eve, the President signed a proclamation delaying a planned tariff hike on wooden furniture and kitchen cabinets. Instead of jumping to 50%, they’re staying at 25% for now. Small wins, I guess?
The "Art of the Deal" 2.0: Concessions and Golf Courses
One thing most people miss is that these tariffs aren't always meant to be permanent. They’re being used as a giant stick to get countries to the negotiating table. So far, about 18 countries have carved out "framework deals" to lower their rates.
But these deals aren’t exactly traditional. Japan, for example, committed to a massive $550 billion investment in the U.S. to get some relief. Vietnam’s deal reportedly included approving a Trump Organization golf course and buying a bunch of Boeing jets. It's transactional, to say the least.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Trade Deficit
There's this idea that tariffs automatically shrink the trade deficit. In reality, it’s much messier. While we’re importing less from China, we’re often just importing the same stuff from Vietnam or Mexico—often made with Chinese parts anyway.
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Plus, the "Fair Trade Act of 2026" (H.R. 6991) is currently sitting in the House. This bill wants to make that 10% baseline tariff permanent law, which would take the power out of the courts' hands entirely. If that passes, the "emergency" part of the tariffs becomes a permanent fixture of the American economy.
Actionable Insights for 2026
If you're a business owner or just someone trying to manage a budget, waiting for "normal" to return is a bad strategy. Here’s what you should actually be doing:
- Check your ACH status: If you’re an importer, U.S. Customs is moving to all-electronic refunds starting February 6, 2026. If the Supreme Court does rule in favor of refunds, you won't get a paper check. You need an ACH Refund program account set up now.
- Audit your "Country of Origin": The 25% "Iran-linked" tariff threat is huge. If your suppliers in places like the UAE or Turkey are handling Iranian materials, your costs could spike overnight.
- Front-load essential tech: If you need to refresh your office hardware or buy a new fleet of laptops, do it before the Q1 price adjustments hit. Most retailers are still cycling through 2025 stock, but the 30%+ price hikes are baked into the 2026 forecasts.
The trade war isn't just a headline anymore; it's a line item on your bank statement. Whether the Supreme Court steps in or Congress passes the Fair Trade Act, the era of "cheap global stuff" is officially on hiatus. Keep a close watch on those mid-week SCOTUS opinion releases—they’re the only thing standing between the current chaos and a total overhaul of what you pay at the register.