The ground is frozen solid across the Donbas, and honestly, the mood in Kyiv is just as cold. We are nearly four years into this thing. If you’ve been following the latest news on russia ukraine war, you know the "stalemate" label doesn't really do justice to how brutal the current situation has become.
It’s January 2026, and the strategy from Moscow has pivoted into something researchers call "weaponizing winter." It’s not just about trenches anymore. It’s about the grid.
The lights are going out
Just this morning, Sunday, January 18, we got word from the Zaporizhzhia region that over 200,000 households are sitting in the dark. Ukrainian drone strikes hit the energy infrastructure in the Russian-occupied south, cutting power to nearly 400 settlements. It’s a messy, tit-for-tat reality. While Ukraine hits the occupied networks to disrupt Russian logistics, Russia is hammering the heart of Ukraine’s civilian life.
Overnight, Russia unleashed a massive wave of 201 drones. Think about that number for a second. 201. Most were shot down—Ukraine's air defense is significantly better than it was two years ago—but "most" isn't "all." Two people were killed in these latest strikes, hitting everywhere from Odesa to Sumy. President Zelenskyy basically admitted that while they're working around the clock, the system is at a breaking point.
The peace talk "Blame Game"
The big drama right now isn't just on the front lines; it’s in Washington and Mar-a-Lago.
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You've probably heard that the diplomatic scene is getting chaotic. U.S. President Donald Trump recently made waves by calling Zelenskyy the "main impediment" to a deal. Trump is pushing the narrative that Putin is ready to sign on the dotted line, while Kyiv is holding out.
But what’s actually in this supposed 28-point peace plan?
- Ukraine gives up NATO aspirations.
- Russia keeps Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk.
- Sanctions on Russia get scrapped.
- Ukraine’s military gets capped at a certain size.
Europe isn't buying it. The UK and France are already talking about sending their own troops to monitor a ceasefire because they don’t trust a deal that looks this lopsided. They’re worried that if Ukraine signs this now, they’ll just be invaded again in 2030. It’s a massive rift between the U.S. and its traditional European allies.
The sheer scale of the loss
Let’s talk numbers, though they feel a bit numb at this point.
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The Ukrainian General Staff just reported that Russia lost another 830 soldiers in the last 24 hours. If you look at the total estimates from sources like the UK Ministry of Defence, we are looking at over 1.2 million Russian casualties since 2022. On the Ukrainian side, the numbers are tighter, but estimates suggest around 400,000 killed or injured.
The math of this war is horrifying. Russia is reportedly recruiting about 34,000 new people a month just to keep their numbers steady. They’ve even started using "infiltration tactics"—sending in tiny teams of just two soldiers to try and sneak into Ukrainian positions because the big tank charges were getting them slaughtered.
What most people get wrong about the aid
There’s a common myth that Ukraine is swimming in Western cash. In reality, the "tap" has slowed to a drip from the U.S. side.
Most American weapons are now getting to Ukraine through "indirect" channels. This basically means other countries are buying the stuff from the U.S. and then handing it over. Meanwhile, the EU just approved a €90 billion package for 2026-2027 because they know that if Ukraine's economy collapses, the war is over regardless of what happens in the trenches.
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Ukraine's own budget is a disaster zone. They're spending more on servicing their debt than they are on healthcare. It's a miracle the lights are on at all in Kyiv.
What happens next?
If you're looking for a silver lining, it's hard to find one this week. The next few months are going to be defined by whether Zelenskyy can maintain his leverage while being pressured by Washington to cede territory.
Next steps for staying informed:
- Monitor the Oreshnik deployments: Russia has started using these intermediate-range ballistic missiles again. They are nuclear-capable, and their use is a clear signal to the West to back off.
- Watch the energy imports: If Ukraine can't increase electricity imports from Europe by February, we could see a massive new wave of refugees fleeing the cold.
- Track the "Coalition of the Willing": Keep an eye on France and the UK. If they move forward with troop pledges for a "post-war" Ukraine, it changes the entire security map of Europe, with or without U.S. approval.
The war is no longer just a border dispute; it's a test of whether the current international order can survive a 21st-century war of attrition.