The AP Poll dropped on Monday and honestly, it’s a mess. If you’re looking at the latest NCAA basketball rankings and thinking everything makes sense because Arizona is still sitting at No. 1, you’re missing the actual story.
The desert remains the center of the universe for now. Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats are 16-0 and just steamrolled through Kansas State and TCU. They look like a machine. But look past that top spot and you’ll see a landscape that feels more like a game of Jenga than a stable hierarchy.
Why the Top 5 is Faking Stability
On paper, the top remains relatively calm. Arizona is No. 1, followed by an undefeated Iowa State at No. 2, and UConn jumping to No. 3. Michigan slid to No. 4 after a weird loss to Wisconsin, and Purdue rounds it out at No. 5.
But let’s be real.
Michigan is still No. 1 in the NET rankings despite that loss. Why? Because the Big Ten is a meat grinder. The Badgers might be 11-5, but they’ve played one of the most punishing schedules in the country. When Michigan loses to a "tourney-caliber" team like that on the road, the computers don't blink, even if the human voters do.
Then you have Vanderbilt.
The Commodores are 16-0. Read that again. They just knocked off Alabama and LSU. Yet, they dropped in the NET rankings this week. It’s the kind of thing that makes fans want to throw their phones. They won twice and got punished because of "strength of schedule" math. It’s basically a reminder that being undefeated doesn't mean as much to an algorithm as who you actually beat.
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The Nebraska Sensation
If you told a casual fan in November that Nebraska would be No. 8 in the country by mid-January, they’d have laughed you out of the room. Fred Hoiberg has found some sort of magic in Lincoln. They are 16-0. They’ve got Rienk Mast leading the charge with 16.3 points and 6.6 boards a night.
They aren't just winning; they're taking down the giants of the Big Ten.
It’s an improbable climb that has completely shifted the power dynamic in a conference usually dominated by the likes of Michigan State or Purdue. Speaking of the Spartans, Tom Izzo has them at No. 12. They’re good, but they’re currently looking up at the Huskers. It's a bizzaro-world season.
Big 12 Chaos and the Dybantsa Factor
The Big 12 is, as usual, a nightmare. You've got:
- Iowa State (No. 2): Still perfect, though their schedule has been soft until lately.
- Houston (No. 7): Kelvin Sampson’s defense is still a brick wall.
- BYU (No. 11): They have AJ Dybantsa. He’s a projected lottery pick for a reason, dropping 23.1 points per game.
- Texas Tech (No. 15): They’ve got some "prove it" games coming up, but that win over Duke earlier this year is doing a lot of heavy lifting for their resume.
Women’s Rankings: The Texas Tumble
The women’s side of the latest NCAA basketball rankings is even more volatile.
Texas was the No. 2 team in the world until they ran into a buzzsaw in Baton Rouge. LSU took them down 70-65 on Sunday. Kim Mulkey’s squad jumped six spots to No. 6, and Texas slid to No. 4.
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This LSU win was a statement. People were questioning if they were still elite after losing their first two conference games. Mikaylah Williams answered those questions pretty loudly.
Meanwhile, UConn is the unanimous No. 1. Geno Auriemma’s Huskies are 17-0 and look absolutely untouchable. If you’re betting against them right now, you’re basically donating money.
The Big Risers and Heartbreaking Falls
Kentucky is a weird one. They beat Oklahoma (who was No. 5 at the time) but then lost to Alabama. Now they’re at No. 9. Oklahoma? They plummeted eight spots to No. 13.
And then there’s the JuJu Watkins-shaped hole in the rankings. USC dropped out of the Top 25 for the first time in 51 weeks. Without their star, they’ve hit a three-game skid that has completely derailed their season. It’s a brutal reminder of how fragile these rankings are when a superstar goes down.
What Most People Get Wrong About the NET
Don't just look at the AP Top 25. The Selection Committee doesn't care about your feelings or the "tradition" of the poll. They care about the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool).
Currently, the NET has Michigan at No. 1 and Arizona at No. 2.
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If you want to know who is actually going to get a 1-seed in March, look at the Quad 1 wins. USF just jumped 20 spots in the NET to No. 56 because they got a massive road win at Tulsa. These are the moves that matter for the bubble teams.
Utah State is another one to watch. They just broke into the AP Poll at No. 23 for the first time this season, but the computers have loved them for a while—they're currently No. 12 in the NET. They are the lone ranked team from the Mountain West, and they're 14-1.
Actionable Insights for the Rest of January
Conference play is where the pretenders get exposed. Here is what you should actually be watching if you want to stay ahead of the curve.
First, keep an eye on the Big Ten mid-week games. The gap between No. 4 Michigan and an unranked Wisconsin or Ohio State is much smaller than the numbers suggest. Road wins in this conference are worth their weight in gold for the NET.
Second, watch Vanderbilt’s upcoming SEC slate. If they can stay undefeated through the next two weeks, the committee will be forced to stop ignoring their metrics. They are currently the "disrespected" team of 2026.
Finally, look at the Mountain West. If Utah State continues to dominate, they aren't just a tournament team; they’re a potential second-weekend threat.
Stop checking the rankings every Monday like they’re gospel. They’re a snapshot of a moving train. The real value is in the teams like Nebraska and Vanderbilt that the traditionalists are still struggling to wrap their heads around. Check the NET daily, watch the Quad 1 records, and ignore the hype until a team proves it on a Tuesday night in a half-empty gym in the middle of nowhere. That's where the tournament is won.
Start tracking the "Wins Above Bubble" metric for teams like Florida (No. 19) and Virginia (No. 16). These are the teams that might be "overranked" by humans but have the efficiency numbers to back up a deep run. If you're filling out a bracket early or just trying to sound smart at the bar, those are the numbers that actually stick.