Drafting the first few rounds of a fantasy basketball league is basically a formality. You take the guy who scores 30 or the guy who blocks everything. Easy. But the real season is won or lost in the muddy waters of the final rounds. Honestly, that’s where the magic happens. While your league-mates are drafting "names" they recognize from five years ago, you should be hunting for the high-upside chaos that defines late round picks fantasy nba success.
It's about finding the guy who is one sprained ankle away from 35 minutes a night.
The Late Round Philosophy: Upside Over Safety
Stop drafting for "floor" in Round 12. If a player’s ceiling is being the 90th best player in fantasy, why are you drafting him at pick 130? You don't need a guy who gives you a boring 10 points and 4 rebounds. You need a flyer.
In the 2025-26 landscape, the injury bug has already shifted the tectonic plates of the league. With stars like Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum sidelined for the year, the value of certain backcourt reserves has skyrocketed. You aren't looking for consistency here; you're looking for a lottery ticket that actually pays out.
Matas Buzelis and the Chicago Power Vacuum
Matas Buzelis is a name you've probably heard, but his ADP (Average Draft Position) is still hovering in a range that makes him an absolute steal. The Chicago Bulls are in a weird spot. They’re shopping veteran pieces like Nikola Vucevic and Coby White, and they’ve basically handed the keys to the youth.
Last year, as a rookie, Buzelis put up 13.0 points and 1.1 blocks in his starts. That block rate from a wing is gold. In 9-category leagues, finding "stocks" (steals + blocks) late in the draft is like finding a twenty-dollar bill in your winter coat. If Billy Donovan lets him run for 30 minutes, he’s a top-75 player hiding in the late rounds.
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Why Minutes are the Only Metric That Matters
You’ve heard it before: "Minutes are king." It’s a cliché because it’s true. A mediocre player getting 32 minutes is almost always better than a talented player getting 18.
Take a look at the Indiana Pacers. With Haliburton out, the ball has to go somewhere. Andrew Nembhard is the obvious beneficiary, but keep an eye on Bennedict Mathurin. He’s entering year four. Rick Carlisle has already tipped his hand, suggesting Mathurin will be a full-time starter.
- 2024-25 Stats: 16.1 PPG, 5.3 REB
- The Leap: If that usage rate jumps from 22% to 27%, he’s a 20-point scorer you got for nothing.
The Backup Big Man Theory
Every year, a random center becomes a fantasy god because the starter gets hurt or traded. This year, the spotlight is on Charlotte. They moved Mark Williams, leaving a massive hole in the middle. While Mason Plumlee is the veteran "safe" choice, Ryan Kalkbrenner is the name to circle.
He’s a 7-footer who averaged nearly 3 blocks a game in college. Even if he only starts the season playing 20 minutes, his per-minute efficiency is so high that he’ll help you win the blocks category single-handedly. That’s the definition of a late round gem.
The Memphis Grizzlies' Secret Weapon
The Grizzlies are a completely different team now. Trading Desmond Bane to the Magic opened up a massive scoring void. Everyone assumes Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. will just take all the shots, but Jackson is already dealing with toe surgery recovery.
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Enter Santi Aldama.
Aldama is one of those "Swiss Army Knife" players. He can hit the three, grab boards, and pass well enough to not hurt your assist totals. Last season he averaged 12.5 points and 6.4 rebounds in limited time. With a guaranteed role and a new 3-year contract, he’s basically the glue guy your fantasy team needs.
Rookies and Sophomore Surges
Drafting rookies is usually a trap. They’re inefficient. They turn the ball over. They make you want to throw your phone across the room. But in the late rounds, the risk is mitigated.
Isaiah Collier in Utah is a prime example. The Jazz are rebuilding (again) after a 65-loss disaster. Collier finished his rookie year strong, averaging 15.9 points and over 7 assists in the final stretch. He’s going around pick 140. In what world is a starting point guard with 7-assist potential available that late? Take the plunge.
Don't Sleep on the "Old" Guys
Sometimes "late round picks fantasy nba" targets are just veterans everyone is bored with. T.J. McConnell is the poster child for this. He doesn't need 30 minutes. Give him 22 minutes and he’ll give you 8 assists and 2 steals. He’s a category specialist. If you're trailing in steals late in your draft, McConnell is your guy.
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Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Drafting for Name Recognition: Just because someone was an All-Star in 2021 doesn't mean they're useful now. Looking at you, Khris Middleton. The injuries have piled up too high.
- Ignoring Team Context: A player might be talented, but if they're on a team with four other guys who need the ball, their fantasy value is capped.
- Punting Too Early: Don't start punting categories in Round 12 unless you've already built a dominant foundation in others.
How to Win the Waiver Wire Before Week 1
The draft is just the beginning. The best managers are already looking at who wasn't drafted.
Keep an eye on Jay Huff in Indiana. With Myles Turner gone to Milwaukee, the center rotation is a mess. Huff has shown he can block shots and hit threes in very limited minutes. If he secures the starting job, he becomes a top-100 player overnight.
Also, watch the Wizards' youth movement. Cam Whitmore is finally free from the Houston logjam. He’s a bucket-getter. On a team as bad as Washington, he’s going to have all the green lights he can handle.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Draft
- Map out the "Injury Beneficiaries": Identify teams like the Pacers or Celtics where major stars are out and find the direct backup.
- Target "Stocks": Prioritize players like Matas Buzelis or Ryan Kalkbrenner who provide rare defensive stats in the late rounds.
- Monitor Preseason Usage: Don't just look at points. Look at who is handling the ball and who is on the floor for "closing" lineups.
- Stay Flexible: If a high-upside rookie like Ace Bailey is falling, grab him. You can always drop him for a hot waiver wire add in Week 2.
The goal isn't to be right about everyone. You just need to be right about one or two. That one late-round breakout is often the difference between a first-round playoff exit and a championship trophy. Keep your eyes on the minutes, ignore the "boring" vets, and swing for the fences.