Ever get that sinking feeling while scrolling through your phone? You know the one. You see a headline about melting ice sheets or a new AI that writes better than your college roommate, and suddenly you're thinking about the last days of humanity. It’s heavy. It’s dark. Honestly, it’s a bit much for a Tuesday afternoon. But here’s the thing: thinking about how it all ends isn't just for doomsday preppers or sci-fi writers anymore. It’s become a legitimate field of study for some of the smartest people on the planet.
We aren't talking about zombies or some Hollywood explosion. We're talking about existential risk.
Experts like Toby Ord at Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute have spent years crunching the numbers on what could actually take us out. In his book The Precipice, Ord estimates the risk of human extinction in the next century at 1 in 6. That is a terrifyingly high number. It’s the same odds as a round of Russian roulette.
The Reality of Existential Risk
When we talk about the last days of humanity, we usually split the threats into two piles: natural and anthropogenic. Natural stuff? That’s your classic "dinosaur treatment." Asteroids, supervolcanoes, or a nearby supernova.
The good news is that we’ve been around for 200,000 years, and these things haven't killed us yet. The statistical likelihood of a massive asteroid hitting Earth in the next 100 years is incredibly low. We’re actually pretty good at tracking the big rocks now. NASA’s DART mission even proved we can redirect them if we have enough lead time.
The bad news? We are far more likely to be the architects of our own demise.
Anthropogenic risks—threats created by humans—are the real "final boss" in this scenario. Nuclear war, engineered pandemics, and unaligned Artificial Intelligence are the big three. Unlike a volcano, which just sits there being a volcano, these risks scale with our own progress. The more technologically advanced we get, the easier it becomes to accidentally (or intentionally) end the story.
The Problem With "The Great Filter"
There’s this concept in astrobiology called the Great Filter. It’s an answer to the Fermi Paradox, which basically asks: "If the universe is so big, where is everybody?"
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One theory is that life hits a wall. Maybe every civilization reaches a point where their technology outpaces their wisdom. They develop the power to destroy themselves before they develop the means to leave their home planet. If we are currently living through the last days of humanity, it might be because we're stuck in that filter right now.
Look at the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. We came within a hair's breadth of total annihilation because of a political standoff. Vasili Arkhipov, a Soviet naval officer, is basically the reason you’re alive today. He refused to authorize a nuclear torpedo launch when his submarine was being harassed by US destroyers. One guy. One decision. That’s how fragile the thread is.
Is Technology Our Savior or Our Downfall?
Technology is a double-edged sword. It’s a cliché because it’s true.
Take Synthetic Biology. We can now "print" DNA. This is amazing for curing diseases. It’s also terrifying because a rogue actor could, in theory, design a pathogen with the lethality of Ebola and the transmissibility of the common cold. Experts like Kevin Esvelt at MIT have been ringing the alarm bells on this for years. He argues that the information needed to create these "super-pathogens" is becoming too accessible.
Then there’s AI.
I’m not talking about a robot uprising with laser guns. I’m talking about alignment. If you give a super-intelligent system a goal—say, "fix climate change"—and you don't give it very specific constraints, it might decide the most efficient way to fix the climate is to remove the humans causing the carbon emissions. It’s not being evil. It’s being a computer.
The Climate Tipping Points
We can't talk about the last days of humanity without mentioning the planet. Climate change usually doesn't show up as a "sudden death" event like a nuke. It's more of a "death by a thousand cuts."
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The danger isn't just "it gets hotter." The danger is the tipping points.
- The Permafrost Melt: As the Arctic warms, it releases methane. Methane is way more potent than CO2. This creates a feedback loop.
- The AMOC Collapse: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the "conveyor belt" of ocean currents. If it stops, weather patterns globally go haywire.
- Biodiversity Loss: We are currently in the middle of the Sixth Mass Extinction. We rely on complex ecosystems for food, water, and air. If the foundation crumbles, we go with it.
Will climate change kill every single human? Probably not. But it could collapse the global civilization that keeps 8 billion of us alive. And a collapsed civilization is much more vulnerable to the other risks on the list.
Why This Isn't Just Doomerism
It’s easy to read all this and want to crawl under a rock. Honestly, I get it. But there is a point to all this grim tallying.
By identifying these risks, we can actually do something. Organizations like the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at Cambridge are literally working on this full-time. They aren't just guessing; they're using probabilistic modeling to figure out where we should spend our money and effort.
If we know that an engineered pandemic is a 1% risk, we can build better biosensors. If we know AI alignment is a problem, we can invest in safety research now instead of later.
The last days of humanity don't have to be a prophecy. They can be a warning.
Sir Martin Rees, the Astronomer Royal, famously wrote a book called Our Final Hour. He wasn't trying to be a pessimist; he was trying to be a realist. He argues that we have a better than 50/50 chance of making it through the century, but only if we start taking these "low probability, high impact" events seriously.
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Moving Toward a "Refuge" Strategy
So, what do we actually do?
Some people, like Elon Musk, think the answer is Mars. The idea is to make humanity a multi-planetary species so we have a "backup drive" if Earth fails. It’s a bold plan. It’s also incredibly difficult. Mars is a freezing, irradiated desert with no breathable air.
Others argue for "Earth-based refuges." This could mean underground bunkers, but on a societal scale. It means creating seed banks (like the one in Svalbard) and libraries of human knowledge that can survive a total grid collapse.
But the real work happens in policy.
- Global Cooperation: You can't regulate AI or synthetic biology in just one country. It has to be a global pact.
- Differential Technological Development: This is the idea that we should intentionally speed up "defensive" technologies (like vaccines and clean energy) while slowing down "dangerous" ones (like autonomous weapons).
Practical Steps for the Concerned Human
You don't need to build a bunker in New Zealand to prepare for the future. The best way to push back against the last days of humanity is to be an informed, active participant in the present.
- Support Long-termism: This is a philosophical movement that argues we should treat the lives of people living 1,000 years from now as just as important as our own. It changes how you think about policy and spending.
- Focus on Robustness: On a personal level, being "robust" means having a diverse set of skills and a strong local community. In a crisis, your neighbors are your most important asset.
- Advocate for Governance: Demand that your representatives take existential risks seriously. We spend billions on national defense but relatively little on planetary defense.
- Stay Rational: Avoid the "doomer" rabbit holes. Panic leads to paralysis. Real solutions come from calm, calculated action and scientific inquiry.
The story of humanity is actually pretty incredible. We went from sharpening sticks to splitting atoms in a geological eyeblink. Whether we're in our final chapters or just finishing the introduction depends entirely on how we handle the next few decades. We have the tools to survive. We just need to find the collective will to use them correctly.
Focus on the tangible. Support the researchers at places like the Future of Life Institute. Read up on the actual data regarding carbon capture and AI safety. Understanding the threats is the first step toward making sure those "last days" stay safely in the realm of fiction.