The air in Las Vegas usually feels like a mix of expensive perfume and desperation, but this January, the desperation is specifically concentrated at 1425 Raider Way. If you've been following the silver and black over the last few months, you know the drill. It’s been a cycle of "close but no cigar." After a lackluster 3-14 finish to the 2025 season, the Las Vegas Raiders quarterback situation hasn't just been a topic of conversation; it’s become a full-blown obsession for a fan base that is tired of watching other teams "Just Win, Baby."
Right now, the depth chart looks like a collection of "what-ifs." You have Geno Smith, the veteran who was supposed to be the bridge to nowhere but ended up starting 15 games. Then there's Aidan O'Connell, the Purdue product who has shown flashes but hasn't quite grabbed the steering wheel. Oh, and Kenny Pickett is hanging around too.
But honestly? None of those names are the reason why Raiders fans are refreshing their feeds at 2:00 AM.
The Fernando Mendoza Factor
The worst kept secret in the NFL right now is that the Raiders are eyeing the 2026 NFL Draft with a singular focus. Specifically, they have their sights set on Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. If you haven't seen Mendoza play, basically, he’s the guy who turned the Hoosiers into a legitimate threat. He’s got the size—6'5", 225 lbs—and the kind of processing speed that makes scouts drool.
Insiders like Hondo Carpenter have been beating this drum for weeks. On a recent Las Vegas Raiders Insider podcast, Carpenter put the odds of the Raiders taking Mendoza at No. 1 overall at about 65%.
Why Mendoza?
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- Arm Talent: He can make throws into windows that look like mail slots.
- Intelligence: He isn't just a physical specimen; he’s known for high-level pre-snap reads.
- The "It" Factor: There is a certain swagger he carries that feels very "Raiders."
JT the Brick, a voice that basically serves as the heartbeat of Raider Nation, recently called the pick a "lock." It makes sense. When you have the first overall pick in a year where the quarterback class is considered top-heavy but thin, you don't overthink it. You take the guy who can stabilize the most important position on the field for the next decade.
What Happened to Geno Smith?
It’s kinda wild to think about where we were a year ago. In April 2025, the Raiders signed Geno Smith to a multi-year extension. At the time, it felt like a smart, stabilizing move. Smith was coming off career highs with the Seahawks, and the hope was he could replicate that magic in Vegas.
He didn't play badly in 2025. He threw for 3,025 yards and 19 touchdowns. But 17 interceptions? That’s where the wheels started to wobble. You can’t win in the AFC West when you’re giving Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert extra possessions.
The social media drama hasn't helped. Recently, fans noticed Geno deleted Raiders-related content from his Instagram. In the modern NFL, that’s basically the equivalent of handing in your two-week notice. Whether it's a trade or a release, it feels like the Geno Smith era in Las Vegas is coming to a very abrupt, very quiet end.
The QB Room as it Stands (January 2026)
If the season started today—which, thankfully, it doesn't—here is what the room looks like:
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- Geno Smith: The incumbent starter whose days are clearly numbered.
- Aidan O'Connell: Still on his rookie deal, likely the high-end backup of the future.
- Kenny Pickett: An impending free agent who likely won't be back unless it's on a very team-friendly "prove it" deal.
Why the Raiders Can't Afford to Wait
There’s a segment of the fan base that thinks trading down for a "haul" of picks is the way to go. They look at the roster holes and think, "Hey, we need offensive linemen and help in the secondary more than a rookie QB."
That’s a dangerous game.
Look at the 2024 draft. The Raiders sat at 13 and watched the top six quarterbacks fly off the board. They ended up with Brock Bowers—who is an absolute stud, don't get me wrong—but they still didn't have a guy to throw him the ball. You can have all the weapons in the world, but if your Las Vegas Raiders quarterback is a placeholder, you're just a high-end treadmill team. Going nowhere, fast.
The decision by Oregon’s Dante Moore to return to school for his junior year changed everything. It sucked the value out of the No. 2 pick (sorry, Jets) and made the Raiders' No. 1 pick the most valuable asset in professional sports. If they pass on Mendoza now, they might not get another shot at a franchise-altering QB for three or four years.
Making the Mendoza Pick Work
If the Raiders do pull the trigger on Mendoza in April, they can't just throw him to the wolves. The 2025 stats show a team that struggled with pass protection. They gave up 64 sacks last year. Sixty-four! That’s a recipe for a ruined rookie.
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The front office needs to use their remaining capital to:
- Beef up the Interior: Alex Cappa was a solid addition, but they need more at guard.
- Find a True WR1: Tyler Lockett is a pro’s pro, but he’s 33. They need a vertical threat to pair with Mendoza’s arm.
- Lean on the Run: Ashton Jeanty has been a bright spot. A rookie QB’s best friend is a 100-yard rusher.
Actionable Next Steps for Raiders Fans
If you're trying to keep up with the Las Vegas Raiders quarterback saga as we head toward the draft, don't just look at the mock drafts. Watch the tape. Go back and look at Mendoza’s performance against top-tier Big Ten defenses. Look at how he handles pressure.
Keep an eye on the "legal tampering" period in March. If the Raiders move Geno Smith before the draft, that is your 100% confirmation that a rookie is coming. Also, pay attention to the Pro Day visits. If owner Mark Davis and the GM are both in Bloomington, Indiana, at the same time, you can start ordering your jersey.
The silver and black are at a crossroads. For the first time in a long time, they aren't just reacting to the market; they are in a position to dictate it. Taking a quarterback at No. 1 is a risk, sure. But in Las Vegas, the only way to win big is to put it all on the table.