Honestly, it is hard to talk about the current state of the Houston Astros without talking about the enigma that is Lance McCullers Jr. He is the emotional heartbeat of a golden era. He is the guy who famously threw 24 straight curveballs to bury the Yankees in the 2017 ALCS. But he’s also a pitcher who, for the better part of the last three years, has felt more like a ghost than a rotation staple.
If you look at the back of his baseball card right now, it’s a mess of "what ifs" and medical terms.
What Really Happened with Lance McCullers Jr. in 2025?
After sitting out for an agonizing 915 days—missing the entire 2023 and 2024 seasons due to a flexor tendon surgery and subsequent setbacks—McCullers finally made it back to a big-league mound in May 2025. It wasn't the fairytale ending everyone in Houston wanted.
His season debut against the Reds at Daikin Park was a nightmare.
He didn't even make it out of the first inning. He gave up seven runs. He looked completely out of sync. To make matters worse, some toxic corners of the internet took it way too far, lobbing horrific death threats at him and his family over a game of baseball. Manager Joe Espada was visibly furious in the post-game press conference, literally pounding the table in defense of his veteran pitcher.
He eventually settled in, but the "stuff" wasn't the same.
The high-octane fastball that used to touch 97-98 mph was sitting lower. His 2025 stats tell a grim story: a 6.51 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP over 55.1 innings. He bounced between the rotation and the bullpen, eventually ending the year on the shelf again with hand soreness.
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Why 2026 is the Final Chapter
We are now entering the final year of the five-year, $85 million extension he signed back in 2021. This is it.
The contract, which once looked like a bargain for a frontline starter, is now frequently cited by outlets like Bleacher Report and Sports Illustrated as one of the "worst" in the league simply because of the lack of availability. He’s set to earn roughly $17.7 million this season.
For the Astros, it’s a massive gamble.
They are in a weird spot. The rotation is thin. With guys like Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski recovering from major surgeries, the team basically has to hope McCullers can find some semblance of his old self. FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections for 2026 are skeptical, to say the least. They see him as a high-risk outlier compared to someone like Cristian Javier, who is also coming back from injury but has a more recent track record of health.
The Pitch Mix Dilemma
Can he actually pitch without the 96 mph heater?
Some scouts think so. His curveball—the "Snap Dragon"—still has that elite bite. Last year, even when he was getting hit, he was still striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings. The problem isn't the movement; it's the command. When you lose velocity, you can't miss over the middle of the plate. In 2025, he gave up 10 home runs in a very short span. That’s the definition of "hanging" it.
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The Trade Rumors and the Padres Link
There was some chatter back in December about the Astros potentially "unloading" McCullers. The San Diego Padres were the name that kept popping up.
Why the Padres? Because A.J. Preller loves a reclamation project. San Diego is desperate for arms with Yu Darvish sidelined for 2026. Taking a flier on a veteran like McCullers on a one-year remaining deal is exactly the kind of high-upside/low-risk (for the acquiring team) move they make.
But for now, Lance is a Houston Astro. He’s trying to prove he’s not "cooked."
He’s a two-time World Series champ. He’s only 32 years old. In pitcher years, that’s not ancient. If his arm can just hold together for 120 innings, he could still be the difference between a division title and a missed postseason.
What to Watch for in Spring Training
If you're following the Astros this spring, keep your eyes on these specific things regarding Lance:
- Fastball Velocity: If he’s sitting at 91-92 mph, it’s going to be a long year. If he’s back up to 94 mph, there’s hope.
- The Cutter: He’s been working on a cutter to bridge the gap between his sinker and the big curve.
- First-Inning Command: His biggest struggles in 2025 were early in games. He needs to prove he can find the zone without a "ramp-up" period.
- Health Status: Any mention of "soreness" or "tightness" in February or March is a major red flag given his history.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
The reality is that Astros pitcher Lance McCullers is playing for his career in 2026. He hits free agency in 2027. If he has another season like last year, he might be looking at minor league invites next winter.
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For Fantasy Owners: Do not reach. He is a late-round flyer at best. The strikeout potential is there, but the WHIP will kill your team if he hasn't fixed the walks.
For Astros Fans: Lower the expectations. He isn't the 2021 version of himself. If he can be a solid 4.20 ERA starter who gives you 5 innings a start, that is a massive win for this roster.
For the Skeptics: Remember that this guy has come back from Tommy John and flexor surgery before. His grit is his best attribute. Don't count out a guy who has literally bled for this franchise in October.
The path back to the top of the AL West likely goes through the health of this rotation. Whether McCullers is a part of that solution or a $17 million obstacle remains the biggest storyline of the season.
Next Steps for Following the 2026 Season:
Track the Grapefruit League box scores specifically for McCullers' walks-per-inning ratio. If he's walking more than 4 batters per 9 innings in spring, the command issues from 2025 haven't been resolved. Also, monitor the status of Cristian Javier; their tandem return is the "X-factor" for Houston's pitching depth this year.