If you were refreshing 247Sports or scrolling through X back in April 2025, you probably felt the shift. For a minute there, it looked like a lock. The Lamar Wilkerson crystal ball was glowing bright blue. Every insider and their mother seemed convinced that the Sam Houston star—the guy who just casual-as-you-like averaged 20.5 points per game—was headed to Lexington to play for Mark Pope.
He was at Keeneland with Pope. He was the "missing piece" for a Kentucky roster trying to reload. Then, the script flipped.
Wilkerson chose Indiana.
It wasn't just a recruiting win for Darian DeVries; it was a statement. But why did the "experts" miss so badly on this one? And more importantly, now that we're deep into the 2025-26 season, was the hype actually real? Honestly, if you look at the numbers he's putting up in Assembly Hall, the answer is a resounding yes.
The Recruitment Chaos: Kentucky vs. Indiana
Recruiting is a weird business. One day you’re the priority at a blue blood, and the next, you’re signing papers for their biggest rival. When Wilkerson hit the portal, he wasn't just another mid-major guard. He was the mid-major guard. We’re talking about a 6-foot-5 sniper who shot 44.5% from deep on nearly eight attempts per game.
That is elite volume.
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The Lamar Wilkerson crystal ball started leaning toward Kentucky because, well, it’s Kentucky. Mark Pope’s system is built on "modern" basketball—threes, pace, and more threes. Wilkerson fit that like a glove. Most of the early predictions had him landing in the SEC. Auburn was sniffing around. Ole Miss wanted him. But Indiana stayed quiet and consistent.
Why Indiana won the battle
People like to talk about NIL—and look, Wilkerson's deal was reportedly north of $2 million, so let's not pretend money wasn't a factor. But Wilkerson himself said something telling after he committed. He didn't want to be "just another guy" at Kentucky. At Indiana, he was the centerpiece.
He saw what Darian DeVries did with his son, Tucker, at Drake. He saw a system where he could be a primary option rather than a floor-spacer.
The Player Behind the Predictions
To understand why everyone wanted a piece of Wilkerson, you have to look at where he came from. This wasn't some five-star kid who had it easy.
- The Factory Grind: After high school in Ashdown, Arkansas, he didn't have the big offers. He actually spent a month working at a Husqvarna factory building chainsaws.
- The JUCO Route: He took the long way through Three Rivers College in Missouri.
- The Sam Houston Leap: He went from 7.4 points as a sophomore to 20.5 as a senior.
That kind of trajectory is rare. It shows a level of "want-to" that coaches crave. When 247Sports analysts like Isaac Trotter called him a "tried and true sniper," they weren't exaggerating. He wasn't just hitting open shots; he was hitting movement threes, deep transition looks, and contested jumpers.
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How the 2025-26 Season is Actually Going
Fast forward to right now. If you've been watching the Hoosiers lately, you've seen the "Lamar Effect" in person. It hasn't been all sunshine—the recent 81-60 loss to Michigan State was a reality check for the whole team. But even in that game, Wilkerson was the one keeping them afloat.
He had a dunk that tied the game at 53-all before the wheels fell off.
Earlier this month, he went absolutely nuclear against Penn State and Maryland. He had 24 points against Nebraska, including a stretch where he scored 16 straight. Sixteen. That’s the kind of microwave scoring that makes the Lamar Wilkerson crystal ball drama from last spring feel like a lifetime ago.
The Dynamic Duo: Wilkerson and DeVries
The vision Darian DeVries sold was a backcourt featuring Lamar and Tucker DeVries. On paper, it’s a nightmare for Big Ten defenses. You can’t double-team one without leaving a 40% shooter open on the other side.
While Indiana has struggled with size and consistency at times this season, the offensive ceiling is clearly higher because of Wilkerson. He’s currently a projected second-round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, mostly because of that 6-foot-5 frame and the ability to "manufacture confusion" (as the beat writers love to say) in the half-court.
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What Most People Get Wrong About Him
The biggest misconception? That he's just a shooter.
If you watch the tape from the 2024-25 season at Sam Houston, he was much more than a catch-and-shoot threat. He was a 1st-team All-CUSA selection because he could get to the rim and draw fouls. He shot over 82% from the free-throw line.
One thing that doesn't get enough play: his character. Wilkerson actually donated a portion of his NIL earnings back to Sam Houston State. Think about that. In an era where everyone is chasing the next dollar, he sent money back to the school that gave him his D1 shot. That tells you more about his fit in a locker room than any recruiting ranking ever could.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re tracking Wilkerson for the rest of the season or looking toward the 2026 Draft, keep these specific things in mind:
- Efficiency vs. Volume: Watch his three-point percentage as Big Ten play gets tougher. At Sam Houston, he was the focal point. At Indiana, he’s seeing better defenders. If he stays above 40%, his draft stock is going to skyrocket.
- Defensive Footwork: This was the knock on him in the portal. Can he guard Big Ten wings? He’s shown flashes of being a solid "team" defender, but his lateral quickness against elite guards is still a question mark.
- The "Heat Check" Factor: Wilkerson is a momentum player. If he hits his first two shots, he’s likely going for 20+. If he starts cold, he can sometimes force things.
The Lamar Wilkerson crystal ball may have pointed toward Kentucky for a minute, but his impact in Bloomington is proving that the prediction was just noise. He’s exactly the kind of "self-made" star that college basketball needs more of. Whether Indiana can turn his scoring into a deep March run remains to be seen, but the talent is undeniable.
To stay ahead of his draft trajectory, keep an eye on his performance against top-10 opponents like Nebraska and Michigan State. Those are the games where scouts are looking to see if his mid-major production truly translates to the highest level of the college game. Check the updated 2026 NBA big boards monthly; if he keeps scoring at this clip, he won't be in the second round for long.