Honestly, looking at a la fortuna costa rica weather forecast can be a total mind game. You see those little rain cloud icons lined up for ten days straight on your phone and start wondering if you should just pack a snorkel and call it a day.
But here’s the thing: those apps are kinda lying to you. Not because they want to, but because the microclimates around the Arenal Volcano are so specific that a general forecast for "San Carlos" or even just "La Fortuna" rarely tells the whole story.
Currently, in La Fortuna, it's about 71°F with a light rain falling. If you were standing in the town center right now, it’d feel more like 76°F because the humidity is sitting at a heavy 92%. There’s a light breeze coming from the northeast at 6 mph, but don't let the "light rain" tag scare you off your morning coffee. In the tropics, this usually means a soft mist that makes the rainforest smell incredible.
The Reality of the Daily Forecast
If you’re looking at the week ahead starting today, Friday, January 16, 2026, it looks "wet" on paper. We’re talking about scattered thunderstorms today with a high of 74°F and a low of 69°F. The chance of rain is high—75%—but that doesn't mean it's a washout.
Tomorrow, Saturday, brings a heavy thunderstorm during the day, which usually means a spectacular electrical show over the volcano, followed by clearing. The high hits 75°F. By Monday and Tuesday, the intensity drops to just "light rain" with highs creeping up to 77°F.
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Basically, the weather here is a moving target. You’ll have a 7 mph wind from the east today, shifting to 11 mph by next week. It’s never stagnant.
Why "Dry Season" is a Bit of a Myth
People flock here between December and April thinking they’re getting a desert. You’re not. This is the rainforest. Even in the heart of the "dry season," La Fortuna can catch Caribbean moisture that the mountains just trap.
February is technically the driest month, often seeing only about 4 days of significant rain, but even then, the humidity rarely drops below 50%. If you’re visiting in January, expect about 6 days of rain across the month. It’s enough to keep the ginger lilies blooming and the sloths looking extra fluffy.
Breaking Down the "Green Season"
From May to November, the "Green Season" takes over. This is when the la fortuna costa rica weather forecast really starts to look intimidating.
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- September and October: These are the heavy hitters. You might see 13 to 14 days of rain per month.
- The "Little Summer": There's often a weird, beautiful break in July called Veranillo, where the rain suddenly stops for a couple of weeks.
- Morning Window: Almost regardless of the month, mornings are your best friend. Rain usually saves its drama for 2:00 PM or later.
Packing for the Uncertainty
Don't bring heavy jeans. Seriously, just don't. They won't dry, and they'll feel like wearing wet cardboard after twenty minutes.
Instead, lean into "Dri-fit" everything. You want moisture-wicking shirts and light hiking shorts. If you’re doing the Mistico Hanging Bridges or hiking the 1968 trails, a light rain shell is better than a heavy waterproof jacket because you’ll sweat buckets in the latter.
You’ll also want:
- Two pairs of shoes: One will get muddy/wet. You need a backup while the first pair "dries" (which, let’s be real, takes forever in 94% humidity).
- Eco-friendly bug spray: The mosquitoes don't care about the forecast; they’re always invited to the party.
- A waterproof phone pouch: Essential if you’re heading to the hot springs while it's drizzling—which is actually the best way to experience them.
The Volcano Visibility Factor
Cloud cover is the ultimate gatekeeper for Arenal Volcano views. June is notoriously overcast (about 90% of the time), while January gives you about a 66% chance of seeing the peak.
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Ironically, some of the clearest views happen right after a massive afternoon downpour in the rainy season. The rain "cleans" the air, the clouds part, and suddenly the volcano is right there in high definition. It’s a gamble, but the payoff is huge.
Practical Strategy for Your Trip
Stop checking the 10-day forecast every hour. It’ll just stress you out. Instead, plan your high-energy activities—zip-lining, volcano hikes, hanging bridges—for as early as possible. Most tours start at 7:00 AM or 8:00 AM for a reason.
If the afternoon brings a thunderstorm, that is your cue to head to the hot springs. Sitting in 100°F volcanic water while cold rain hits your face is a core La Fortuna experience.
Check the hourly forecast specifically for the "precipitation type." If it says "light rain" or "showers," proceed with your plans. Only "heavy thunderstorms" with high wind (over 15-20 mph) should make you consider rescheduling a boat tour on Lake Arenal.
The most actionable thing you can do? Download a local radar app and watch the clouds move in real-time. It’s way more accurate than a static icon on your home screen. Pack a poncho, embrace the humidity, and remember that without this specific weather, La Fortuna wouldn't be the lush, green paradise everyone's trying to see in the first place.