Sugar rushes don't last. Anyone who has ever inhaled a dozen Original Glazed doughnuts knows exactly how that feels—the initial peak, the inevitable crash, and the slight regret that follows.
Lately, Wall Street has been feeling that same headache with Krispy Kreme (DNUT).
If you're looking for a simple krispy kreme stock price prediction, you've probably seen the "Buy" ratings and the "Hold" consensus. But there's a much messier story under the surface. It's a story about a failed mega-partnership, a desperate need for cash, and a business model that's currently being ripped apart and rebuilt in real-time.
The McDonald’s Breakup Changed Everything
Honestly, we have to talk about the elephant in the room: the McDonald’s partnership. Back in 2024, everyone was screaming from the rooftops that this was the "Golden Ticket." The plan was to have fresh doughnuts in every Golden Arches across the country by the end of 2026.
It didn't happen.
By July 2, 2025, the dream was officially dead. The two companies ended their partnership after reaching about 2,400 locations. Why? Because it just wasn't profitable for Krispy Kreme. Managing the logistics of getting fresh dough to thousands of burger joints while keeping costs low turned out to be a nightmare.
The market hated it. When the news broke, the stock took a massive hit, and it hasn't really found its footing since. Now, the company is facing a class-action lawsuit from investors who feel they were misled about how well that rollout was actually going.
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Where the Stock Sits in Early 2026
Right now, as we move through January 2026, the share price is hovering in a weird spot.
Most analysts are playing it safe with a "Hold" rating. The average 12-month price target for Krispy Kreme is currently sitting around $5.51. When you consider the stock has been trading down near the $3.60 to $4.10 range lately, that looks like a decent upside of about 30-50%.
But don't get too excited.
Some analysts, like those at Citigroup, have been much more pessimistic, slashing targets down as low as $2.50. On the flip side, you have the eternal optimists at Morgan Stanley who still see a path to $6.00.
The reality is that Krispy Kreme is currently a "show me" stock. Investors are tired of hearing about "potential" and "access points." They want to see actual, cold, hard profit.
The Financial Reality Check
Let's look at the numbers. They aren't pretty.
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The company is still struggling with profitability. In the second quarter of 2025, they reported a massive net loss of over $400 million. Compare that to the same quarter in 2024, where they only lost about $5 million. That's a huge swing in the wrong direction.
Their debt is also a major concern. To fix this, they've been selling off "non-core" assets. They sold Insomnia Cookies and are currently in the middle of selling their operations in Japan—a deal expected to close in Q1 2026 for about $65 million.
- Current Ratio: 0.36 (This is low. Very low.)
- Net Margin: -33.3%
- Revenue Growth Forecast: ~5.8% for 2026
They are basically trying to sell enough "spokes" to save the "hub." It's a risky game.
The "Duller" 2026 Strategy
CEO Josh Charlesworth has been calling 2026 a "duller" year. That’s CEO-speak for "we’re going to stop doing crazy stuff and try to make some money."
They are leaning hard into their "Hub-and-Spoke" model. Basically, they make the doughnuts at a big central factory (the hub) and ship them fresh to grocery stores and convenience stores (the spokes). This is way cheaper than running thousands of individual doughnut shops.
They are also refranchising. Instead of owning the shops themselves—which is expensive and risky—they are selling them to franchisees and taking a cut of the revenue. They’ve done this in the UK, Australia, and now Japan.
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What Actually Drives the Price Now?
If you're betting on a krispy kreme stock price prediction for the next year, you need to watch three things:
- The Target Partnership: With McDonald's out of the picture, Krispy Kreme is betting big on Target and Walmart. If they can successfully scale "Delivered Fresh Daily" in these retailers without the logistics costs eating their lunch, the stock could rebound.
- Debt Reduction: Every dollar they get from selling international operations needs to go toward that debt pile. If they don't get the debt-to-equity ratio under control, the interest payments will keep dragging them down.
- The Lawsuit: That class-action suit is a dark cloud. If it settles quickly and cheaply, the market might breathe a sigh of relief. If it drags on, it’s a constant weight on the share price.
A Balanced View of the Future
Is the stock a "buy"?
Some people see a depressed valuation and a globally recognized brand and think it's a steal. They look at the 13% projected sales growth and think the "Hub-and-Spoke" model will eventually pay off.
Others see a company that can't stop burning cash. They see the failed McDonald's deal as a sign that Krispy Kreme simply isn't a "scale" business in the way people want it to be.
My take? Krispy Kreme is a turnaround story that hasn't turned yet.
The brand is iconic, but the balance sheet is a mess. Until they can prove they can grow revenue without losing hundreds of millions of dollars in a single quarter, the stock is likely to stay volatile.
Practical Next Steps for Investors
If you're holding DNUT or thinking about jumping in, here is the move:
- Watch the ICR Conference updates. The company recently gave a fireside chat in early January 2026. Dig into the transcripts to see if they are actually meeting their "asset-light" goals.
- Monitor the Japan sale. If that $65 million doesn't hit the books in Q1 as planned, it's a bad sign for their liquidity.
- Check grocery store shelf space. Next time you're in a Walmart or Target, look at the Krispy Kreme display. Is it full? Is it fresh? That "Delivered Fresh Daily" channel is now the company's entire lifeblood.
The sugar high is over. Now comes the hard work of building a sustainable business. It's going to be a slow grind, not a quick pop. Don't expect the stock to hit the moon until the company can finally find its way back to being "in the black."