Honestly, if you've spent more than a week in East Tennessee, you know the drill. The weather doesn't just change; it has an identity crisis. One day you’re wearing a light vest to a Vols game, and the next, you're scavenging for an ice scraper because the humidity decided to freeze solid on your windshield.
Right now, looking at the Knoxville Tennessee extended forecast for the back half of January 2026, we are staring down the barrel of a classic Appalachian roller coaster.
It's cold. Like, actually cold.
As of tonight, January 15, we're sitting at a crisp 24°F. It feels more like 19°F with that 4 mph breeze coming off the mountains. But if you think that’s the vibe for the rest of the month, you clearly haven't been paying attention to how the Great Smoky Mountains play with our atmosphere.
The Ten-Day Tease
Basically, tomorrow is going to be the pivot point. Friday, January 16, starts off cloudy with a high of 48°F, which sounds almost pleasant until the sun goes down. That’s when things get messy. We’re looking at a 65% chance of a rain-snow mix overnight.
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It’s that weird, slushy stuff that doesn't quite make for a good sledding hill but definitely makes the bridge on I-40 a nightmare.
- Saturday, Jan 17: We dry out slightly with a high of 45°F and a low of 24°F. Mostly cloudy, kind of gray, very "East Tennessee in January."
- Sunday, Jan 18: The sun finally decides to show up. It’ll be bright, but don't let the light fool you—the high only hits 34°F.
- The "Deep Freeze" (Jan 19-20): Monday and Tuesday are going to be the ones where you check your pipes. We’re looking at overnight lows of 16°F.
The air is going to be incredibly dry, with humidity dropping down to 24% by Tuesday. If your skin feels like sandpaper and you’re getting a static shock every time you touch a doorknob, that’s why.
Why the Mountains Make It Weird
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Morristown are constantly dealing with "The Wedge." Basically, cold air gets trapped against the eastern side of the Appalachians and spills over into the Tennessee Valley. This is why Knoxville can be 30 degrees while Nashville is sitting at 50, or vice-versa.
We’re also dealing with a bit of a lagged response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) this year. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is seeing some heavy troughing over eastern North America, which basically means the "cold door" is standing wide open for those Canadian air masses to slide right down into our backyard.
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Rainfall vs. Snowfall: The Eternal Battle
People always ask, "Is it going to snow?"
The short answer: Rarely as much as we want.
The long answer: We get a ton of "liquid gold" instead. By Wednesday, January 21, the temperature starts climbing back up toward 47°F, and by Friday, January 23, we’re looking at 52°F. Along with that warmth comes the rain. Saturday, January 24, currently shows a 100% humidity reading with a 65% chance of steady rain.
If you're planning on hiking at Ijams or hitting the trails at South Knox, maybe wait for the 25th, when that rain likely transitions back into light snow as the temp drops back to 36°F.
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Real-World Prep for the Next Two Weeks
Forget the "bread and milk" panic for a second. The actual threat in Knoxville isn't usually being snowed in; it's the black ice from the freeze-thaw cycle.
When it hits 50 degrees on Friday and then drops to 16 degrees a few days later, all that runoff on the secondary roads turns into a skating rink. City crews have already filled the salt sheds and the plows are on standby, but the backroads in places like Halls, Farragut, or out toward Strawberry Plains always stay dicey longer than the main strips.
- Drip your faucets: Especially on Monday night (Jan 19) when we hit that 16°F floor.
- Check the UV Index: Even though it’s winter, Sunday’s clear skies have a UV index of 2. It’s low, but if you’re out on the water at Fort Loudoun, the reflection can still bite.
- Wind Chill Matters: We’ve got some 16 mph gusts coming in Friday. That 48°F high is going to feel significantly more "bitey" than the number suggests.
Looking further out into February, the Almanac is suggesting we might actually trend a few degrees above average, but don't hold your breath. This late January stretch is the real test of our winter endurance. It’s that messy mix of southwest winds, Gulf moisture, and Canadian cold that makes the Knoxville Tennessee extended forecast so famously unpredictable.
Stay warm, keep an eye on those overnight lows, and maybe keep an extra layer in the car. You're gonna need it.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check your tire pressure tomorrow morning; the sudden drop from today's 28°F to next week's 16°F will almost certainly trigger your TPMS light. Also, ensure your outdoor spigots are disconnected before Sunday night to avoid a burst pipe when the deep freeze hits on Monday.