So, you’re looking at a Key West weather forecast and seeing that little rain cloud icon for Tuesday. Honestly? Don't cancel your snorkel trip just yet. People who live here basically know that those icons are the biggest liars in the Caribbean. Because Key West is just a tiny four-mile-long speck of coral at the end of the line, storms often just... miss us. They’ll dump rain on the middle keys like Marathon or Big Pine, but by the time they hit the Southernmost Point, they’ve run out of steam or the ocean breeze has pushed them right past the island.
Right now, as of Friday, January 16, 2026, it is actually a pretty gorgeous day out there. The current temperature is sitting at a crisp 60°F with a humidity of 47%. That’s basically perfection for anyone who isn’t a lizard. We’ve got a northeast wind blowing at about 12 mph, which keeps the air feeling fresh and keeps the bugs from being too annoying at the outdoor bars.
What the Next Few Days Actually Look Like
If you're planning your weekend, here is the breakdown from the latest data. Today, Friday, January 16, is going to be sunny with a high of 69°F and a low of 58°F. Perfect for a bike ride around Old Town.
Tomorrow, Saturday, January 17, it warms up a tiny bit to 71°F. It’ll stay sunny, but the humidity is going to jump up to 70%, so you might start feeling that classic Florida "stickiness" by the afternoon.
Sunday, January 18, is when things get a bit weird. It’s going to be mostly cloudy with a high of 73°F, but the wind is going to kick up significantly. We’re looking at 26 mph winds coming from the northwest. If you’re planning on being on a boat, Sunday might be the day you swap the catamaran for a long lunch at Blue Heaven.
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The Weird Truth About "Rainy Season"
Most people see "rainy season" (which is basically June through November) and freak out. Here’s the deal: it rarely rains all day. In Key West, rain is usually a 20-minute event. It pours like the sky is falling, everyone ducks under a porch on Duval Street for one margarita, and then the sun comes back out like nothing happened.
The real thing to watch isn't the rain—it’s the heat index. In the summer, even if the thermometer says 89°F, the humidity can make it feel like 105°F. That’s when you see the tourists turning a very specific shade of "lobster red" because they didn't realize the sun here is closer and meaner than it is in Ohio.
Key West Weather Forecast: The Seasonal Reality
If you want the best possible weather, you’re looking at the "High Season" which is right now—January through April. This is when the rest of the country is shoveling snow and we're wearing flip-flops.
Winter (December - February):
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- Highs: Mid 70s
- Lows: Mid 60s
- Precipitation: Very low (usually around 2 inches a month)
- Vibe: Best weather, but the most crowded and expensive.
Spring (March - May):
- Highs: High 70s to low 80s
- Water Temp: Starts getting really nice, hitting about 79°F in April.
- Vibe: This is the "sweet spot." The winter crowds start thinning in late April, but the soul-crushing humidity hasn't arrived yet.
Summer (June - August):
- Highs: High 80s
- Water Temp: Like a bathtub. Usually around 87°F.
- Vibe: Tranquil, but hot. This is when you do all your activities before 10:00 AM or after 5:00 PM.
Fall (September - November):
- Highs: Mid 80s
- Precipitation: This is the peak of the rainy season. September averages over 7 inches of rain.
- Vibe: The most "local" time of year. Cheap hotels, but you're gambling with hurricane season.
Dealing with Hurricane Season
Let's talk about the elephant in the room: Hurricane Season. It runs from June 1 to November 30. If you're looking at a Key West weather forecast during this window, you need to be realistic. September is the statistical peak.
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Does that mean you shouldn't visit? Not necessarily. Modern forecasting gives us days, if not weeks, of warning. Most hotels have "Hurricane Guarantees" where they'll refund you if a mandatory evacuation is called. Honestly, the biggest risk isn't a storm—it's just the humidity making you want to live inside a walk-in freezer.
Actionable Advice for Your Trip
If you are heading down here this week or anytime soon, stop obsessing over the 10-day forecast. It’s going to change six times before you land at EYW. Instead, pack for layers. Even though it's 60°F right now, the sun makes it feel warmer, but the wind on a sunset cruise will make you wish you brought a light jacket.
Next Steps for a Weather-Ready Trip:
- Check the wind, not just the rain: If you want to snorkel, anything over 15 mph usually means choppy water and bad visibility. Sunday's 26 mph forecast is a "no-go" for the reef.
- Download a radar app: Don't look at the percentage of rain. Look at the actual radar. If the green blob is small, it’ll pass in ten minutes.
- Sunscreen is non-negotiable: Even on a "cloudy" day like Sunday is projected to be, the UV index is still around a 3 or 4. You will still burn.
- Hydrate: Especially as the humidity climbs toward 70% tomorrow. Water between the rum runners is the secret to surviving a Key West vacation.
Basically, the island is always "open," regardless of what the weather channel says. Just be ready to pivot from the beach to a museum if a stray shower pops up.