So, you’re looking at a key west weather 14 day forecast and wondering if you should pack that extra sweater or just triple down on the sunscreen. Honestly, people treat Key West like it’s a constant, unchanging heat lamp. It’s not. Especially right now in mid-January, the weather is doing that weird, tropical "I’ll do what I want" dance that catches tourists totally off guard.
If you’re checking the apps today, Thursday, January 15, 2026, you’ll see we’re sitting at 68°F tonight with a "feels like" of 76°F. But here’s the kicker: the wind is ripping from the north at 27 mph. That’s not a breeze; that’s a "hold onto your margarita" kind of wind.
The 14-Day Reality Check
Most folks think a 14-day window in the Keys is just 14 days of the same thing. Wrong. Look at the shift coming up. Today we had a high of 76°F with a massive 100% chance of rain during the day. By tomorrow, Friday the 16th, that rain vanishes completely—0% chance—but the temperature drops to a high of only 64°F.
That’s a 12-degree swing in 24 hours.
If you arrived in shorts today, you’re going to be shivering at the Sunset Celebration tomorrow. The humidity is dropping from 73% today to a crisp 55% tomorrow. Basically, the air is going to feel totally different.
What the Next Two Weeks Actually Look Like
Planning out your trip? Here is the vibe for the upcoming stretch based on the current data.
👉 See also: Walt Disney World Drawing: Why You Should Spend Your Vacation Time Making Art
Saturday and Sunday (Jan 17-18) are looking like the "sweet spot" return. We’re heading back up to 73°F with partly sunny skies. The wind dies down a bit to about 14-15 mph. It’s classic Keys weather. But keep an eye on Monday, January 19. The temperature dips again to 64°F and those north winds kick back up to 25 mph.
If you're staying through the following week, things finally start to stabilize into that tropical dream. By Saturday, January 24, we’re looking at a gorgeous 78°F, perfectly sunny, and the wind drops to a gentle 10 mph from the southeast. That southeast wind is the "good" wind. It brings the warmth.
Breaking Down the Numbers (No Tables, Just Facts)
Currently, the humidity is hovering at 65%, which is actually quite comfortable for the island. The UV index is basically non-existent at night (obviously), but it hits a 5 on sunny days like tomorrow. Even if it feels "cool" at 64°F, that Florida sun will still bake you if you aren't careful.
Don't let the "light rain" today scare you off for the rest of the month. Historically, January is one of the driest months here. We usually only see about 1.5 inches of rain the entire month. Today’s 100% soak was a bit of an outlier. By the time we hit the end of this 14-day window around January 25, the chance of rain drops back to 0% with a high of 76°F.
Why "Feels Like" is the Only Metric That Matters
You’ve probably noticed the "feels like" temperature is often higher than the actual air temp here. Tonight it’s 68°F but feels like 76°F. Why? It’s the moisture. Even in the "dry" season, Key West is a rock in the middle of the ocean. The dew point matters more than the thermometer.
When the wind is coming from the North or Northwest (like it is right now at 30 mph), it’s bringing "mainland" air. That’s why it’s drier. When it flips to the East or South later next week, it’s bringing Caribbean air. That’s when it starts feeling like the tropics again.
Actionable Advice for Your 14-Day Window
- The Wind is Your Enemy (and Friend): If you're booking a snorkel trip, Saturday (Jan 17) or the following Saturday (Jan 24) are your best bets. The wind speeds are much lower (10-14 mph), meaning the boat won't be a washing machine and the visibility at the reef will be way better.
- Layering is Not a Myth: You need a light windbreaker. With 25-30 mph winds forecasted for several days this week, a "warm" 64°F day feels much colder when you're walking down Duval Street.
- Rain is a Flash in the Pan: Even on days like Thursday with high rain chances, it’s rarely a total washout for 14 days straight. The clouds move fast here.
- UV is Sneaky: Don't trust the temperature. A 64°F day on Friday has a UV index of 5. You will get burned while feeling "cool."
Keep your eyes on the wind direction. If it’s from the North, pack a long sleeve. If it’s from the South, grab your flip-flops and hit Smathers Beach. The island is small, the weather is fickle, and the forecast is just a suggestion until the wind decides where it’s coming from.