If you’ve lived in the Texas Hill Country for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up needing a heavy parka and by lunchtime, you’re looking for a short-sleeved shirt and wondering where you left your sunglasses. Honestly, the 10 day forecast Kerrville TX is looking like a classic example of that atmospheric moodiness right now.
We are currently sitting in a stretch of weather that feels remarkably dry, but don't let that fool you. If you look back at the local news from just a few days ago, the conversation was dominated by the $10 million in relief funds activated for small businesses still recovering from the massive floods that hit the region last July. It’s a stark reminder that in Kerrville, "dry" is often just a temporary state of being between significant events.
Why the Current 10 Day Forecast Kerrville TX is Sneaky
Right now, Sunday, January 18, 2026, we’ve got a bright, sunny situation with a high of 60°F. It feels like the perfect day to walk along the Guadalupe River. But look at tonight. The temperature is expected to crater down to a low of 26°F. That is a 34-degree swing in less than twelve hours.
Basically, the air is so dry right now—humidity was sitting at a tiny 19% earlier—that there is nothing to hold the heat in once the sun goes down.
The Week Ahead: Clouds and a Hint of Rain
Tomorrow, Monday, January 19, stays pretty similar. We’re looking at another sunny day with a high of 61°F and a low of 35°F. It’s great weather for the MLK Day holiday, though a 13 mph wind from the south will start bringing in a bit more moisture.
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By Tuesday, January 20, things get grey. The high drops to 53°F as the clouds move in. We’ve got a 35% chance of light rain Tuesday night. It isn't a "soaker," but it’s enough to make the roads slick.
Wednesday, January 21, is actually the warmest day on the immediate horizon. We are projecting a high of 65°F with a low of 47°F. If you’ve got outdoor chores or want to hit the trails at Kerrville-Schreiner Park, this is probably your best window before the humidity spikes to around 79%.
Managing the Mid-Week Slump
From Thursday, January 22, through Friday, January 23, it’s mostly just overcast. Highs will hover between 57°F and 58°F. It’s that "Texas grey" where it feels colder than the thermometer says because of the dampness in the air.
- Saturday, Jan 24: Light rain likely, high of 61°F, low of 50°F.
- Sunday, Jan 25: Showers are much more probable today. We’re looking at a 45% chance during the day, jumping to a 70% chance of rain at night.
That Sunday night into Monday morning period is the one to watch. The humidity is forecasted to hit a whopping 91%. When that moisture meets the cooler air moving in from the northeast, it’s going to feel pretty raw outside.
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The Late-January Cold Snap
As we move into the tail end of the 10 day forecast Kerrville TX, things take a sharper turn toward winter. Monday, January 26, and Tuesday, January 27, see the highs struggling to get out of the 40s.
On Tuesday, January 27, we are looking at a high of only 42°F and a low of 33°F. With 13 mph winds coming straight out of the north, the "feels like" temperature is going to be well into the 20s. It’s a good time to make sure your outdoor pipes are wrapped. We’ve seen enough "unexpected" freezes in the Hill Country over the last few years to know that "rarely falls below freezing" is a statistic, not a guarantee.
Putting the Numbers into Context
Historically, January is the driest month for Kerrville, averaging about 1.5 inches of rain. So far in 2026, we are actually trending a bit warmer and drier than the 30-year average. According to USDA ARS data from earlier this month, our average highs have been about 3.5 degrees above the normal 62.5°F.
But averages are a funny thing. They hide the extremes. While we're talking about a 60-degree day today, we haven't forgotten the 2025 summer floods that left debris still being cleared from the Guadalupe riverbanks this month. Volunteers like Nancy Alford have been spending their January breaking apart cedar cones to help restore the trees lost during those floods. The weather here is a long game of restoration and preparation.
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What You Should Actually Do This Week
Forget the "average" temperatures and look at the daily lows. The most important part of the 10 day forecast Kerrville TX right now isn't the afternoon highs; it's the overnight drops.
First, check your irrigation systems. Even though we have rain chances next weekend, the air is incredibly dry right now. If you have new plantings from the restoration efforts, they might need a manual drink before the Tuesday clouds arrive.
Second, plan your Sunday (Jan 25) around that 70% rain chance. If you’re commuting toward San Antonio or Fredericksburg early Monday morning, expect fog and wet pavement.
Honestly, just keep a jacket in the car. It’s Kerrville in January. You’re going to need it by 6:00 PM regardless of how nice it looks at noon.
Actionable Summary for Kerrville Residents:
- Protect Sensitive Plants Tonight: The drop to 26°F is significant.
- Outdoor Activities: Aim for Wednesday, January 21, for the best balance of warmth and clear skies.
- Rain Prep: Clear your gutters before Sunday, January 25, to handle the 70% evening rain probability.
- Driving Safety: Be wary of North winds on Tuesday, January 27; the gusts can be tricky on the higher overpasses of I-10.