If you’re standing on the Sidney Baker Street bridge in Kerrville right now, the Guadalupe River looks like a postcard. It’s calm. The water level is hovering around 1.25 feet, which is basically its "normal" sleepy state. But don't let the quiet fool you. For anyone living here, Kerrville Texas flooding today isn't about active rising water—it's about the invisible scars left by the catastrophic surge that tore through this town just six months ago.
Honestly, the "today" part of this story is more about rebuilding than rowing boats. The trauma of July 4, 2025, when the river crested at a terrifying 39 feet, still hangs over Kerr County like a heavy humid morning. We’re currently in January 2026, and while the National Weather Service (NWS) is reporting clear skies and freezing temps tonight, the community is still wrestling with what happened when the sky fell last summer.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Current Risk
You've probably seen the headlines or heard people worrying about "the big one" returning. Let's get real: right now, the flash flood risk is near zero. We’re actually under a Freeze Warning and a Red Flag Warning because it's so dry and cold. It's ironic. We went from having way too much water to worrying about fire weather and freezing pipes in the span of a few months.
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The Guadalupe River gauge at Kerrville (KRRT2) shows the stage is miles below the "Action" level of 7 feet. To give you some perspective, the record-breaking flood last year was so high it literally surpassed the county’s 1987 disaster. People think these things are "100-year events" and then they happen twice in a lifetime. That's the scary part.
The Real Numbers from the July Surge
- Peak Crest: 39 feet (surpassing the previous 1987 record).
- Rainfall: Some areas near Ingram saw over 11 inches in a single night.
- Speed: The river rose 21 feet in just one hour at the Kerrville gauge.
- Casualties: The death toll across the region eventually hit 119, with a massive portion of those heartbreaks happening right here in Kerr County.
Why Kerrville Texas Flooding Today is a Legal and Emotional Battle
If you drive through Louise Hays Park, you’ll see the grass has grown back. The debris is mostly gone. But the town is currently locked in a massive debate over how we warn people. When the flood hit at 3 a.m. on a holiday weekend, many were sleeping.
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There's a lot of finger-pointing going on in the courtrooms. Local officials like County Judge Rob Kelly have been under the microscope. Was the NWS forecast of 5-7 inches too low? Probably. But the real issue was the communication gap. By the time the "Life Threatening" alerts hit cell phones, the wall of water was already hitting the cypress trees.
The Camp Mystic Tragedy
You can't talk about flooding in this area without mentioning Hunt and Camp Mystic. The reports coming out this month are gut-wrenching. We’re seeing text messages between officials from the night of the flood that show total confusion. At one point, people didn't even know where the campers were. Today, the memorial outside the camp—piles of stuffed animals and flowers—is a permanent fixture. It’s a somber reminder that "flood safety" isn't just a brochure; it's life and death.
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The Infrastructure Reality Check
What is the city actually doing? Well, they're looking at a flood warning siren system again. They talked about this six or seven years ago, but it was too expensive. Now, after $18 billion in estimated damages across the Hill Country, the "cost" of a siren seems a lot smaller.
- Bridge Inspections: Crews are still checking the structural integrity of crossings on the North and South forks of the Guadalupe.
- Debris Management: Thousands of tons of uprooted trees are still being cleared further downstream to prevent future "dams" from forming.
- Insurance Woes: A lot of folks found out the hard way that their homeowner's policy didn't cover "rising water." If you live anywhere near a creek in Kerrville, check your FEMA flood map today. Seriously.
Surviving the Next One: Actionable Steps
The Hill Country is "Flash Flood Alley" for a reason. The ground is hard-packed limestone. The water doesn't soak in; it just runs off the hills and into the canyons. If you're living here or visiting, here is what you actually need to do:
- Sign up for WarnCentralTexas.org. This is the regional notification system. Don't rely on a Facebook post from your neighbor.
- Know your "Vertical." If the river is at 1 foot, where does it hit your property at 10 feet? 20 feet? You should know exactly which "contour line" your house sits on.
- Turn Off "Do Not Disturb" at Night. The July 4 flood was so deadly because it happened while people were in REM sleep. If there’s a flood watch, your phone needs to be able to scream at you at 2:00 a.m.
- The "Turn Around Don't Drown" Rule is Real. Most fatalities happen in vehicles. Even a foot of water can move a heavy SUV if the Guadalupe is moving fast enough.
The state of Kerrville Texas flooding today is one of recovery and vigilance. The river is a beautiful neighbor until it isn't. Right now, we’re watching the skies and hoping the lessons from 2025 stick.
If you are a property owner in the floodplain, your next step should be a formal "Elevation Certificate." It costs a few hundred bucks but could save you thousands in insurance or, more importantly, tell you exactly when you need to pack the car and head for higher ground. Don't wait for the next disaster declaration to find out where your safe zone is.