It is the fastest two minutes in sports, but honestly, the fallout usually lasts for years. You’ve probably seen the hats and the mint juleps, but the actual history of Kentucky Derby winners in the last 10 years is way messier than the pristine TV broadcasts suggest. We’ve had everything from 80-1 longshots to drug scandals and a disqualification that nearly started a riot in Louisville.
The Weirdest Decade in Racing History
Basically, horse racing is supposed to be about the best athlete winning. But since 2016, "winning" has become a relative term.
Just look at the 2024 Derby. Mystik Dan won by a nose. Literally. It was the closest three-horse photo finish since 1947. Brian Hernandez Jr. rode the rail like a magician, and somehow, the $3.1 million paycheck stayed with Kenny McPeek’s barn. It was clean. It was fast. It was... normal?
That’s a rarity lately.
The Complete List of Official Kentucky Derby Winners (2016-2025)
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | The Vibe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sovereignty | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott | A solid win for Godolphin's blue silks. |
| 2024 | Mystik Dan | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Kenny McPeek | The ultimate rail-skimming upset. |
| 2023 | Mage | Javier Castellano | Gustavo Delgado | Only had one career win before the Derby. |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | Sonny Leon | Eric Reed | 80-1 odds. He wasn't even in the race until Friday. |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | Florent Geroux | Brad Cox | Won in a courtroom months after the race. |
| 2020 | Authentic | John Velazquez | Bob Baffert | The "COVID Derby" held in September. |
| 2019 | Country House | Flavien Prat | Bill Mott | The first-ever winner via on-track disqualification. |
| 2018 | Justify | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert | The last Triple Crown winner we've seen. |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | Dominated a very sloppy, wet track. |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Mario Gutierrez | Doug O'Neill | Came in undefeated and left the same way. |
When the First Horse Across the Line Doesn't Win
We have to talk about 2019 and 2021 because they changed the sport.
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In 2019, Maximum Security crossed the wire first. The crowd cheered. The owners started heading to the winner’s circle. Then, the "Objection" sign lit up the board. For 22 agonizing minutes, the stewards watched replays. They eventually ruled that Maximum Security veered out and impeded other horses. He was tossed. Country House, a 65-1 shot who finished second, was handed the roses. Bill Mott, the trainer, called it "bittersweet," and he wasn't lying. It felt wrong to a lot of fans, but the rules are the rules.
Then came the Medina Spirit saga in 2021.
That horse was a fighter. He led from start to finish. But a week later, news broke that he tested positive for betamethasone, a legal antifungal that’s banned on race day. The legal battle lasted forever. Ultimately, the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission stripped the title and gave it to Mandaloun. Sadly, Medina Spirit passed away during a workout later that year, leaving a dark cloud over the whole situation.
The 80-1 Miracle: Rich Strike
If you want to talk about why people still bet on this race, you have to look at 2022. Rich Strike was a "claimer." That basically means he was a budget horse. He only got into the Derby because another horse, Ethereal Road, scratched at the very last second on Friday morning.
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Sonny Leon, a jockey most people hadn't heard of outside of the Ohio circuit, rode a race for the ages. He zig-zagged through 19 other horses like he was playing a video game. When he hit the lead at 80-1 odds, the announcer sounded like he’d seen a ghost.
It was the second-biggest upset in the history of the race, trailing only Donerail in 1913.
The Triple Crown Peak
The mid-2010s felt like a golden era because of Justify (2018). Following in the footsteps of American Pharoah (2015), Justify was a literal monster. He was huge, undefeated, and seemingly untouchable.
He broke the "Curse of Apollo"—no horse had won the Derby without racing as a two-year-old since 1882. Justify didn't just break the curse; he shattered it. He went on to sweep the Preakness and the Belmont, retiring undefeated. We haven't seen anything like him since.
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Why It’s Getting Harder to Predict
You’ve probably noticed the odds are getting wilder. Why?
- The Points System: Horses now have to qualify through a specific leaderboard, which favors "late bloomers."
- The Pace: Modern trainers are breeding for speed, but the 1.25-mile distance at Churchill Downs is a brutal test of stamina.
- The Traffic: With 20 horses in the gate, the "trip" (how much trouble a horse runs into) matters more than actual talent sometimes.
How to Use This Info for Your Next Derby Party
If you're looking at the Kentucky Derby winners in the last 10 years to try and pick a winner for the next one, keep these things in mind. First, don't ignore the longshots. In the last decade, we've had winners at 80-1, 65-1, and 18-1. The "favorite" hasn't been a lock for a while.
Second, look at the trainer. Bill Mott and Bob Baffert (when he's not suspended) are always in the mix. But guys like Kenny McPeek and Gustavo Delgado are proving that you don't need a $10 million horse to win—you just need the right horse on the right day.
To really get ahead of the curve, start watching the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" prep races in February and March. Races like the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby are where the real contenders reveal themselves. Watch how they handle the final turn. If a horse is gaining ground in the last eighth of a mile, they might just be your next Derby legend.
Check the injury reports and the workout tabs on the Tuesday before the race; that's when the real "backstretch buzz" starts to leak out about which horse is feeling like a winner.