Betting on the Derby is basically a collective fever dream. Every year, thousands of people descend on Churchill Downs convinced they’ve cracked the code. They look at the speed figures, they obsess over the post draw, and then a horse like Sovereignty comes from 16th place in the mud to ruin everyone's exacta.
If you're looking back at the kentucky derby picks 2025 to see what actually happened—or trying to figure out why the "experts" missed the mark—you have to look at the track conditions. It was sloppy. I mean, really sloppy. That red Kentucky clay turned into a peanut butter consistency that swallowed the front-runners whole.
What Really Happened With the 2025 Favorites
Going into the first Saturday in May, the hype train for Journalism was out of control. The Michael McCarthy trainee was the 3-1 favorite for a reason. He’d dominated the Santa Anita Derby and looked like a machine. Most public kentucky derby picks 2025 had him pegged as a lock. Honestly, he ran a hell of a race. He tracked the pace, made his move at the top of the stretch, and looked like a winner for about three seconds.
Then Junior Alvarado happened.
Sovereignty, a Godolphin homebred trained by the legendary Bill Mott, was sitting way back in the clouds. While Citizen Bull was busy burning himself out on the lead with a :46.23 half-mile, Sovereignty was just chilling in 16th. Mott is a master of timing. He doesn't over-prep his horses. While other 3-year-olds were peaking in March, Sovereignty was just getting warm. He hit the line 1 1/2 lengths clear at 7-1 odds, paying out $17.96 on a $2 win bet.
The Underdogs That Scared the Field
One of the wildest parts of the race was Baeza. This horse didn't even make the main field initially. He was stuck on the also-eligible list and only got in because Bob Baffert had to scratch Rodriguez.
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Starting from the far outside post (21), Baeza somehow managed to weave through traffic and finish third. If you had him in your trifecta, you were feeling pretty good about life.
Then you have Final Gambit. Brad Cox always has a live runner, and this one was no exception. He was dead last at one point. Seriously, he was so far back the camera almost missed him. But he picked up the pieces to finish fourth. It just goes to show that in a 20-horse field, "trip" is everything. You can have the fastest horse in the world, but if he gets a face full of mud at the start, it's over.
Why the "Expert" Picks Failed
Most people who give out kentucky derby picks 2025 rely too heavily on the "Road to the Derby" points leaderboard. Sure, Burnham Square had the most points (130) coming in, but he finished a disappointing sixth.
Points don't win races; physical development in April does.
- Journalism (3-1): The favorite who did everything right but got caught.
- Sandman (6-1): A total disappointment. He won the Arkansas Derby but hated the Churchill surface. He finished 7th, beaten by 12 lengths.
- Sovereignty (7-1): The winner. A perfect example of a "closer" benefiting from a fast pace collapse.
- Baeza (13-1): The "alternate" who proved he belonged by finishing 3rd.
The 2025 field was unique because there wasn't a "superhorse." There was no Justify or American Pharoah. It was a group of very good, but flawed, colts. When the track came up sloppy, the speed-biased horses like Neoequos and American Promise basically became anchors. They led for six furlongs and then fell through the field like they were tied to a post.
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Analyzing the Winning Strategy
If you want to win at this game, you've got to stop betting horses just because they won their last prep race. Look at the Beyer Speed Figures, but look at the trend, not just the top number. Sovereignty didn't have the highest speed figure in the field, but he was getting faster every single time he stepped on the track.
Bill Mott won his first Derby with Country House on a disqualification in 2019. This time, he won it the right way. No stewards needed. No drama in the room. Just a perfectly timed run from a horse that was bred to go the 1 1/4 mile distance.
Actionable Insights for Future Derby Betting
If you're already looking toward the 2026 trail (where Ted Noffey is currently the winter favorite), take these lessons from the 2025 results.
First, ignore the hype on Baffert’s sprinters. They look amazing in January, but they often struggle when they have to go ten furlongs against 19 other horses. Citizen Bull is a great horse, but he finished 15th in the 2025 Derby because he couldn't sustain that sprint speed over the "classic" distance.
Second, watch the workouts at Churchill. Horses that don't like the "sandy" feel of the Louisville track usually tip their hand in the mornings. Sandman looked uncomfortable in his final breeze, and it showed on race day.
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Finally, always include a closer in your exotics. Even if a speed horse wins, there is almost always a deep closer who passes tired horses to grab 3rd or 4th. In 2025, that was Final Gambit and Owen Almighty, who held on for 5th.
The Kentucky Derby is the hardest two minutes in sports to predict, but if you look past the obvious favorites, the value is usually sitting right there in the middle of the pack.
Final Results Summary
- Sovereignty ($17.96 Win)
- Journalism ($4.94 Place)
- Baeza ($8.38 Show)
- Final Gambit
- Owen Almighty
The total winning time was 2:02.31. It wasn't the fastest Derby ever recorded, but on a sloppy track, it was an incredibly gritty performance. For those who followed the smart money and looked for the tactical closer, the 2025 race was a massive payday.
To stay ahead of the curve for the upcoming season, start tracking the 3-year-olds running in the Holy Bull and the Risen Star. Those are the races that historically produce the kind of stamina needed to win the Run for the Roses.