The dirt is flying again at Churchill Downs. Honestly, if you aren't paying attention to the 2026 Kentucky Derby horses yet, you’re already behind the curve. Most casual fans wait until the mint juleps are pouring in May to start looking at the program, but the real money—and the real stories—are happening right now in the freezing January wind.
Winning the Derby isn't just about being the fastest. It's about surviving. Last year, we saw Sovereignty splash through a sloppy mess to take the 151st Run for the Roses at 9-1 odds, leaving the favorite, Journalism, in the literal dust (or mud, I guess). But 2025 is in the rearview mirror. Now, we have a whole new crop of three-year-olds trying to prove they aren't just "sprinters with a dream."
The Heavyweight: Why Ted Noffey is the Horse to Beat
Right now, one name is sucking all the oxygen out of the room: Ted Noffey.
If you’ve been following the prep races, you know this colt is basically a machine. He’s sitting at the top of the leaderboard with 40 points, and he hasn't even broken a sweat yet. Trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Spendthrift Farm, this son of Into Mischief is the reigning juvenile champ. He didn't just win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; he dominated it.
But here’s the thing. Being the winter favorite is sorta like being the homecoming king—it doesn’t mean you’ll be successful in the real world. Everyone remembers Arazi. Everyone remembers the "unbeatable" favorites that hit the quarter pole at Churchill and realized 1 1/4 miles is a very, very long way to run.
Ted Noffey has the pedigree, though. Into Mischief has already sired winners like Authentic and Mandaloun. His dam, Streak of Luck, liked the distance. John Velazquez is in the irons. It’s a "dream team" scenario, but in horse racing, dreams usually end at the top of the stretch when a 50-1 longshot decides today is the day.
The Baffert Factor and the West Coast Contingent
Bob Baffert is back in the mix, and love him or hate him, you can't ignore his horses. Litmus Test is currently his top prospect, sitting second on the leaderboard with 19 points after a gritty win in the Los Alamitos Futurity.
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Then there’s Brant. He cost $3 million. Three. Million. Dollars. You don’t spend that kind of cash unless you think you’re buying a trophy. He finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Ted Noffey, but he’s been a "buzz horse" since he broke his maiden at Del Mar.
- Desert Gate: Another Baffert trainee. He was second in the American Pharoah Stakes and has been working steadily at Santa Anita.
- Intrepido: Trained by Jeff Mullins, he’s got 13 points and plenty of tactical speed.
- Mr. A.P.: He was a serious threat until he hit the injured list recently. It’s a reminder of how fragile these athletes are. One bad step and the Derby dream is over.
The New York and Gulfstream Grinders
While the California horses are sunning themselves, the New York and Florida circuits are producing some real "blue-collar" contenders.
Paladin won the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct for Chad Brown. If you know anything about the Remsen, you know it’s a marathon for two-year-olds. It’s 1 1/8 miles in the December cold. It separates the men from the boys—or the classic stayers from the sprinters. Paladin is currently at 10-1 in the futures pools, which is a bit short for my liking, but he’s got the lungs for the job.
Down at Fair Grounds, Chip Honcho just took the Gun Runner Stakes. He’s trained by Steve Asmussen, a guy who has won almost everything except the Derby. He’s also got Spice Runner, who took the Iroquois Stakes earlier in the season. Asmussen is due. He’s been second so many times it’s becoming a "Best Director who never won an Oscar" situation.
Japan is Coming (Again)
We have to talk about the international horses. It’s not a "maybe" anymore; the Japanese horses are legitimately terrifying. Satono Voyage won the Cattleya Stakes in Tokyo, and Pyromancer looks like a monster after winning the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun.
Remember Forever Young in 2024? He missed winning the Derby by a nostril. The Japanese breeding program has shifted toward American dirt pedigrees, and they are sending their best. If Satono Voyage shows up in Louisville, do not ignore him just because you haven't seen him run on TV.
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What People Get Wrong About the Leaderboard
Most people look at the point standings and think the horse with the most points is the "best." That’s not how this works. The points just get you into the gate.
Look at Golden Tempo. He only has 20 points right now because he’s lightly raced. But he’s a son of Curlin out of a Bernardini mare. That is "Derby Royalty" blood. He’s trained by Cherie DeVaux, and he won his debut like he was shot out of a cannon. He’s the kind of horse that might not have 40 points in January, but by the time the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial rolls around, he could be the one everyone is terrified of.
Then you have the "sprinter types." Napoleon Solo is fast. He won the Champagne Stakes, which is a prestigious one-mile race. But his pedigree is all speed. Liam's Map, Scat Daddy—these are horses that want to fly for a mile and then go take a nap. Can he stay the extra quarter mile? History says it’s a tall order.
How to Actually Evaluate These Horses
If you want to find the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby, stop looking at the wins and starts looking at the "gallop outs."
When a horse crosses the finish line in a prep race like the Lecomte or the Holy Bull, watch what they do after the wire. Do they pull up immediately? Or do they keep passing horses around the turn? A strong gallop out is the number one indicator that a horse has the "bottom" to handle the 1 1/4 miles at Churchill.
Also, pay attention to the "late bloomers."
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Ewing and Big Dom were both May foals. In the horse world, being born in May vs. January is a huge deal when you're only two or three years old. It’s like a 13-year-old playing basketball against a 14-year-old. These May foals are still growing into their frames. If they are competing with the big boys now, they are going to be significantly stronger by May.
The Road Ahead: Key Dates to Watch
The calendar is about to get very busy. We have a cluster of races on January 31st: the Southwest at Oaklawn, the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, and the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita.
This is where the "pretenders" get weeded out. A lot of these horses have been winning on raw talent. Now, the distances are increasing, and the pressure is mounting. If a horse like Incredibolt or Strategic Risk can win at 1 1/16 miles or 1 1/8 miles this month, they are the real deal.
Practical Steps for Derby Following
If you're trying to get a head start on your Derby betting or just want to sound smart at the sports bar, here is what you need to do:
- Watch the Replays: Don't just look at the results. Go to YouTube or the Churchill Downs website and watch the last 1/8th of the race. Is the horse gaining ground or hanging on for dear life?
- Check the Workouts: Use sites like Equibase or XBTV. A horse that is "bulleting" (running the fastest workout of the day) is usually a sign of high fitness, but look for "easy" works where the horse is doing it under a hold.
- Ignore the Odds (For Now): The future book odds are designed to take your money. 9-1 on Ted Noffey in January is a bad bet. Anything can happen in four months. Look for value in the 30-1 to 50-1 range on horses with distance pedigrees like Golden Tempo or Renegade.
- Follow the Trainers: Pletcher, Brown, Cox, and Baffert. These guys have the keys to the kingdom. If they keep a horse on the Derby trail despite a loss, they see something you don't.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby horses are still an unformed lump of clay. Some will break, some will "bounce" after a big effort, and one will become a legend. Just don't get married to the leaderboard this early. The real Derby starts when the distances hit 1 1/8 miles in March. Until then, keep your eyes on the gallop outs and your money in your pocket.