Betting the Derby in November is basically a form of beautiful, high-stakes insanity. You're trying to pick a winner for a race that won’t happen for six months. These horses are barely out of their "toddler" phase in racing terms. Yet, here we are. Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 2025 is the first real chance to lock in odds that will look like a steal come May—if your horse actually makes it to the starting gate.
Most people get this wrong. They see a flashy winner at Keeneland or Santa Anita and think they’ve found the next Secretariat. Honestly, the "All Others" field is usually the smartest bet this early, and the 2025 cycle proved that once again.
The Numbers Nobody Tells You About Pool 1
If you look at the closing odds for Pool 1, which wrapped up right before the Breeders' Cup, the "All Other Colts and Geldings" (Betting Interest #40) closed as a heavy 6-5 favorite. Why? Because horse racing is brutal. Injury, distance limitations, or just plain old burnout claim about 80% of these early "stars" before the first Saturday in May.
The total handle for this first pool hit over $184,000. That’s a decent chunk of change for a race half a year away. But when you look at the individual horses, the value starts to get kinda weird. Take Ted Noffey, for example. He closed at 10-1 in the future wager. If you waited until he actually won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, those odds would have evaporated instantly.
Why Timing is Everything
- The November Window: Betting Pool 1 usually happens around the Breeders' Cup. You’re betting before the biggest two-year-old race of the year.
- The Price Lock: If you bet Brant at 14-1 in Pool 1, you're hoping he becomes the 2-1 favorite by April. If he does, you've got massive leverage.
- The Risk Factor: There are no refunds. None. If your horse gets a cough or decides he hates running long distances in February, your ticket is worth exactly zero.
The Standouts: Who Actually Looked Good?
Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert basically own this time of year. It’s sorta predictable but also impressive. Ted Noffey, trained by Pletcher, was the standout individual choice. The horse has that "it" factor—lengthy stride, stays calm in traffic, and handled the dirt at Del Mar like a pro.
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Then you’ve got the Baffert brigade. Brant (14-1) and Boyd (39-1) were the names on everyone’s lips. Baffert’s horses are almost always "oversold" in these pools because of his reputation, but if you like a horse like Blackout Time (20-1) from the Kenny McPeek barn, you're getting a much more "honest" price.
A Quick Look at the Odds (Will Pays)
- All Other Colts/Geldings: $4.58 (6-5)
- Ted Noffey: $22.24 (10-1)
- Brant: $30.58 (14-1)
- Blackout Time: $43.74 (20-1)
- Further Ado: $45.06 (21-1)
Napoleon Solo was another one people were whispering about at 27-1. He’s got that Liam’s Map pedigree that suggests he’ll love the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Derby. But again, it's November. A lot can happen.
The "All Others" Trap
Every year, seasoned bettors argue about the "Field" bet. In Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 2025, the field was 6-5. To some, that’s "free money" because it covers every horse not listed individually. To others, it’s a sucker bet because you’re essentially tied to the favorite.
But think about it: at this stage, the eventual Derby winner might not even have broken their maiden yet. In 2022, Rich Strike wasn't on anyone's radar in Pool 1. He was part of the "All Others." If you bet the field back then, you won.
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Strategy for the Next Pools
Don't blow your entire bankroll in Pool 1. It's meant for "pizza money" bets—small amounts on high-odds longshots. If you see a horse like Intrepido at 34-1 and you genuinely love his breeding, put $10 on him. If he wins a major prep race in February, you’ll be sitting on a 34-1 ticket while the rest of the world is betting him at 5-1.
Real Talk on Pedigree
At this stage, ignore the "speed figures" and look at the parents. Horses sired by Into Mischief (like Ted Noffey) or Gun Runner (like Brant) are bred for this. If you’re looking at a horse sired by a sprinter, be very careful. They might win at seven furlongs in December, but they'll hit a wall when they have to go ten furlongs in May.
What to Do Now
If you missed Pool 1, don't sweat it. There are six pools in total. Pool 2 usually opens in late November, and that’s when the picture starts to get a little clearer.
Watch the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" leaderboard. Keep an eye on horses that are finishing second or third in Grade 1 races but putting up big late-speed numbers. Those are your "sneaky" future wager plays.
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Stop betting based on the name. Just because a horse has a cool name or a famous owner doesn't mean he can handle the Churchill Downs surface. Look for horses that have already shown they can handle kickback (dirt hitting them in the face) and still move forward. That's the hallmark of a true Derby contender.
Check the results of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile closely. If the winner came from way off the pace, he’s a massive threat for the 2025 Derby. If he won on a lone lead with slow fractions, be skeptical. The Derby pace is never slow.
Lock in your observations now. Write down three horses that caught your eye in the replays. When Pool 2 or 3 opens, check if their odds have shifted. If they haven't, that's your window to strike.