Texas politics has always been a contact sport, but what’s happening right now between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn is basically a cage match. If you’ve been following the headlines, you know the vibe. It’s loud. It’s expensive. It’s messy.
Ken Paxton is officially taking his "warrior" brand to the federal level, and John Cornyn—the man who has held that seat since 2002—is standing right in the crosshairs. But here’s the thing: everyone keeps calling this a simple "establishment vs. outsider" fight. Honestly, it’s way weirder than that.
Why the Paxton Challenges Cornyn Texas Senate 2026 Race Is a Total Mess
Most people think John Cornyn is safe because he’s got the money. And he does. He’s sitting on a war chest that makes most candidates weep. But money doesn't buy love in the modern Texas GOP.
Paxton is betting everything on the idea that the "base" has moved past Cornyn. He points to 2022, when Cornyn got booed off a stage in Houston for working on a bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde shooting. To Paxton, that was the moment the "Cornyn era" ended. He isn't just running for a seat; he's running to finish a purge of the "old guard."
The "RINO" Label vs. The Record
Paxton’s campaign is essentially one long highlight reel of Cornyn’s "betrayals."
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- The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (guns).
- Support for Ukraine aid.
- Past comments about the "DREAM Act."
Cornyn, meanwhile, isn't taking it lying down. He’s spent millions on ads reminding everyone about Paxton’s legal baggage—the 2023 impeachment, the securities fraud case that dragged on for years, and the whistleblowers. It’s a strategy of "mutually assured destruction." Cornyn wants voters to see Paxton as "un-electable" in a general election, even if they like his politics.
Polling and the Three-Way Headache
The numbers are all over the place. One week, Paxton is up by 15 points. The next, a poll from Emerson or the Texas Tribune shows them in a dead heat.
The real wildcard? Wesley Hunt.
The Houston-area Congressman is also in the race, and he’s pulling a solid 20% to 25% in recent polls. Because Texas requires a 50% majority to avoid a runoff, there is a very high chance neither Cornyn nor Paxton wins this thing on March 3.
If we head to a runoff, things get even nastier. You’ve got a scenario where the third-place finisher becomes the kingmaker. If Hunt drops out and throws his support to Paxton, Cornyn’s two-decade run in D.C. could end in a Tuesday night heartbreak in Austin.
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The Trump Factor (Or Lack Thereof)
Everyone is waiting for the endorsement from the Mar-a-Lago.
So far, the former president has played it surprisingly cool. He’s called both men "good friends."
Paxton’s team acts like the endorsement is a done deal, citing their shared history of fighting "lawfare." Cornyn’s team, however, has been working overtime to show they are the true allies of the MAGA legislative agenda. Cornyn even started posting photos of himself reading The Art of the Deal. It’s a bit much, but that’s the game now.
Is Paxton Actually Electable?
This is the big question that keeps Republican strategists up at night.
Internal polling (and some public data from Change Research) suggests that while Paxton is a hero to the primary base, he struggles with independents. Some polls even show him trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents like James Talarico or Jasmine Crockett.
Cornyn uses this as his primary shield. His pitch is basically: "You might not love me, but I won’t lose the seat to a Democrat." In a state that hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, that’s a powerful—if somewhat fearful—argument.
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What Happens Next
The primary is March 3, 2026. Between now and then, expect your mailbox to be stuffed with flyers and your TV to be nothing but attack ads.
Actionable Insights for Texas Voters:
- Check your registration: The deadline to register for the March primary is February 2, 2026. Don't assume you're still on the rolls.
- Watch the fundraising: In Texas, money doesn't always win, but it tells you who the national PACs are betting on. If Cornyn’s lead shrinks below $5 million, he’s in real trouble.
- Look for the runoff: If no one hits 50%, the real race starts in May. That’s when the most motivated (and often most polarized) voters decide the future of the state.
This isn't just another election. It’s a referendum on what "Republican" means in Texas for the next decade. Whether it's the institutional stability of Cornyn or the scorched-earth style of Paxton, the winner will define the Texas GOP for a long time to come.