Honestly, looking back at the kari lake race polls feels a bit like reading a weather forecast that predicted a light drizzle right before a flash flood hit. Arizona politics is a wild ride. Everyone thought they knew exactly how the 2024 Senate race would go. The pundits had their talking points ready. The pollsters were churning out numbers every week. But when the dust settled on the desert floor, the reality was a lot more complicated than a simple "red vs. blue" narrative.
Ruben Gallego won.
He didn't just win; he pulled off a victory in a year where the top of the ticket was swinging hard toward the GOP. While Donald Trump carried Arizona by roughly 185,000 votes, Kari Lake fell behind. She lost to Gallego by about 2.4 percentage points—specifically, a gap of 80,574 votes. If you’re into the nitty-gritty: Gallego pulled in 1,676,335 votes (50.1%) to Lake’s 1,595,761 (47.7%).
The Disconnect in Kari Lake Race Polls
Why did the kari lake race polls struggle to pin this down? For months, Gallego held a steady lead in most public surveys. Some polls from earlier in the year, like those from Noble Predictive Insights, showed him up by high single digits. Even CBS News had Lake trailing significantly in the late stages of the campaign.
But then, things got tight.
👉 See also: Effingham County Jail Bookings 72 Hours: What Really Happened
As we approached November 5, 2024, the "Trump Effect" started to muddy the waters. Some internal GOP polls suggested Lake was within the margin of error, or even tied. The narrative shifted. People started wondering if she could ride Trump’s coattails all the way to DC. Spoiler: she didn't.
The most fascinating part is the "ticket-splitters." These are the voters who walked into a booth, checked the box for Donald Trump, and then immediately checked the box for Ruben Gallego. It sounds crazy, right? But the numbers don't lie. Gallego actually outperformed Kamala Harris by a massive margin—getting 93,475 more votes than she did in the state. Meanwhile, Lake underperformed Trump by 174,481 votes. That is a massive "oops" for the Lake campaign.
What the Numbers Actually Tell Us
If you want to understand the demographics, look at the Latino vote. This was the ballgame. Exit polls showed Gallego securing about 60% of the Hispanic vote. For comparison, Harris only got 54% of that same group. Gallego’s identity as the first Latino Senator from Arizona definitely played a role, but it was also about the ground game. He spent years in the House representing Phoenix and Glendale, and people knew him.
Lake, on the other hand, had "the baggage."
✨ Don't miss: Joseph Stalin Political Party: What Most People Get Wrong
You can't talk about the kari lake race polls without talking about her 2022 run for Governor. She lost that race to Katie Hobbs by about 17,000 votes and then spent two years in court trying to overturn it. For a lot of moderate Republicans in Maricopa County, that was a bridge too far. They liked Trump’s policies, but they were tired of the "election denial" talk.
- Maricopa County: This is where elections go to live or die. Lake needed a blowout here. She didn't get it.
- Independent Voters: Arizona has a huge chunk of "Other" or Independent voters—about 34% of the electorate. They broke for Gallego.
- The Suburban Shift: Women in the suburbs, particularly those concerned about reproductive rights (Arizona had Proposition 139 on the ballot, which passed with 61.6% of the vote), largely favored Gallego.
A Tale of Two Campaigns
Gallego’s strategy was basically to be "the normal guy." He leaned into his Marine combat veteran background. He talked about his upbringing. He tried to pivot away from the "progressive" label that Lake tried to stick on him. Lake, conversely, stayed in the "firebrand" lane. She was a fixture at Mar-a-Lago and a frequent face on national cable news.
It's sorta ironic.
Lake had massive name recognition from her years as a local news anchor. Usually, that’s a superpower in politics. But in this case, the more people knew her, the more polarized they became. By the time the final kari lake race polls were conducted, her "unfavorable" ratings were often higher than her "favorable" ones. You can't win a statewide race in a purple state when half the people actively dislike you.
🔗 Read more: Typhoon Tip and the Largest Hurricane on Record: Why Size Actually Matters
Why Arizona Is Different Now
Arizona isn't the Republican stronghold it used to be. It’s not a Democratic stronghold either. It’s just... weird.
Since 2018, Democrats have won four consecutive Senate races in the state (Sinema, Kelly twice, and now Gallego). Yet, Republicans still control both houses of the state legislature. It’s a split-brain state. The kari lake race polls failed to capture the specific subset of "McCain Republicans" who simply refuse to vote for candidates they perceive as too far to the right.
Lake tried to bury the hatchet with that wing of the party late in the game, famously saying "we drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine" during her 2022 run and then trying to walk it back in 2024. Voters have long memories.
Actionable Insights for Future Elections
If you're a political junkie or just trying to figure out what happens next, here is the takeaway:
- Look at the "Undervote": When a Senate candidate gets significantly fewer votes than their party's Presidential candidate, it’s a sign of a "personality" problem, not a "policy" problem. Lake’s 174,000-vote gap behind Trump is the smoking gun.
- Watch the Independents: In Arizona, whoever wins the 1.5 million "Other" voters wins the state. Period.
- Don't Trust Every Poll: Late-cycle "momentum" is often just noise. The steady lead Gallego held for 18 months was more indicative of the final result than the "scare polls" in late October.
The era of Kari Lake as the face of Arizona Republicanism might be shifting. Trump has already announced he intends to appoint her as Director of the Voice of America (VOA), moving her away from the ballot box and into a federal administrative role. This leaves a massive vacuum in the Arizona GOP.
For now, Ruben Gallego is headed to the Senate. He’s taking the seat formerly held by Kyrsten Sinema, giving Democrats a rare bright spot in an otherwise tough 2024 cycle. The lesson? You can't just run on a brand; you have to run on the math. And the math in the kari lake race polls was never quite as good as the campaign claimed.