Honestly, if you're looking for the flashiest rivalry in college sports, you probably aren't looking at Manhattan, Kansas, or Waco, Texas. You're probably thinking about the Red River Rivalry or some blue-blood showdown in the ACC. But here’s the thing: Kansas State vs Baylor has quietly become one of the most unpredictable, high-stakes series in the modern Big 12.
It isn't just about geography or a shared conference. It’s about two programs that built themselves up from the basement of the league to become perennial spoilers and, occasionally, the ones wearing the crown. Whether it’s on the turf at McLane Stadium or the hardwood of Bramlage Coliseum, this matchup rarely follows the script.
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The 2025 Heartbreaker: What Really Happened in Waco
If you missed the football clash on October 4, 2025, you missed what was basically a masterclass in "Big 12 After Dark" energy—even though it kicked off at 11 a.m.
Kansas State rolled into Waco looking like the more complete team. Avery Johnson, the Wildcats' electric quarterback, was doing Avery Johnson things. He threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns, and he scrambled for another 72 yards on the ground. At one point in the third quarter, K-State held a 31-17 lead. It felt over. The purple faithful in the stands were already looking for where to grab dinner.
Then, the wheels fell off.
Baylor didn't just crawl back; they exploded. Sawyer Robertson started finding Michael Trigg—who, let’s be real, looked like an NFL player among kids that day—for chunk play after chunk play. Trigg ended with 155 receiving yards, including a one-handed grab that made every highlight reel in the country.
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The turning point was a 66-yard interception return by Baylor’s Jacob Redding that flipped the stadium on its head. Suddenly, a 14-point K-State lead turned into a dogfight. K-State's Luis Rodriguez managed to drill a 22-yard field goal to put the Wildcats up 34-32 with less than two minutes left, but it wasn't enough.
Freshman kicker Connor Hawkins stepped up for the Bears and hammered a 53-yard field goal with 36 seconds on the clock. Final score: 35-34. It was the smallest margin of victory in the history of the series, and it left the Wildcats wondering how a game they dominated for 40 minutes slipped through their fingers.
Why This Matchup Still Matters in 2026
We’re currently sitting in January 2026, and the conversation has shifted to the court. But the echoes of that football game still matter because they define the current state of these two athletic departments. Both programs finished the 2025 football season with a 5-7 or 6-6 vibe—K-State ended 6-6 while Baylor hit 5-7.
They are in that "middle class" of the new-look Big 12, fighting to prove they belong in the same breath as the Utas and Texas Techs of the world.
The Basketball Paradox
Now, let's talk hoops. This is where it gets weird.
For years, Scott Drew and Baylor were the gold standard. But lately, Jerome Tang—Drew’s former long-time assistant—has turned Kansas State into a thorn in Baylor’s side. The "student vs. teacher" narrative is played out, sure, but it’s actually real here. Tang knows Drew's "Culture of JOY" better than anyone because he helped build it.
In their most recent meeting on January 22, 2025, Baylor managed to pull out a 70-62 win behind a monster performance from freshman VJ Edgecombe, who dropped 30 points. But K-State didn't make it easy. They used a 1-2-2 zone that historically gives Baylor fits.
Right now, as we look at the Big 12 power rankings for early 2026, both teams are struggling. Baylor is sitting at 0-3 in conference play, and K-State is right there with them. It’s a strange sight. We’re used to seeing these two at the top of the standings, but the "new" Big 12 is a meat grinder.
The Stats That Actually Tell the Story
Most people just look at the win-loss column, but if you want to understand Kansas State vs Baylor, you have to look at the margins.
- Football Series Record: Baylor leads 11-9 (as of late 2025). It is remarkably balanced.
- The Home Field Myth: K-State has actually been quite good in Waco historically, but McLane Stadium has become a house of horrors for them lately.
- Basketball Consistency: Before the current 2026 slump, Baylor had won 10 of the last 13 against the Wildcats. However, three of those losses came in Manhattan in high-pressure overtime games.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception? That Baylor is a "finesse" school and K-State is a "power" school.
In the 2025 football game, Baylor actually out-hit K-State in the fourth quarter. They were the ones winning the battle at the line of scrimmage when it counted. Conversely, K-State’s offense under Avery Johnson is anything but "old school." It’s a high-flying, spread-out system that relies on speed.
If you're still thinking of K-State as the team that just runs the power-I and Baylor as the team that only throws deep, you're living in 2013. The identities have swapped, merged, and become something entirely different.
What to Watch for Next
If you're betting on or just following the next few months of this rivalry, keep your eyes on the recruiting trail. K-State's 2025 class was ranked roughly 32nd nationally, while Baylor sat around 38th. They are recruiting the same kids in Texas and the Midwest.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts:
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- Watch the Turnover Margin: In the last five football meetings, the team that won the turnover battle won the game 100% of the time. K-State’s interception in 2025 was the literal nail in the coffin.
- Monitor the Injury Report: Specifically for Baylor basketball in 2026, keep an eye on Dan Skillings Jr. His status is the difference between Baylor being a tournament team or a bottom-feeder this year.
- The "Tang Factor": Until Jerome Tang beats Scott Drew consistently, the mental edge stays in Waco. Watch the coaching adjustments in the second half of basketball games; that's where the "chess match" happens.
The next time these two meet, ignore the jerseys. Don't look at the names on the front. Look at the coaching boxes and the trenches. That’s where Kansas State vs Baylor is won and lost, usually in the final thirty seconds.
To stay ahead of the curve, focus on the mid-week recruiting updates and the defensive efficiency ratings heading into the Big 12 Tournament in March. These are the "hidden" metrics that predict who will come out on top in this slugfest.