You remember how it used to be. For a long time, the Kansas City Chiefs treated the Jacksonville Jaguars like a developmental squad. It was almost a formality. You’d see Patrick Mahomes spin out of a sack, heave a ball 50 yards downfield to a wide-open Travis Kelce, and the Jags would just kind of shrug as if to say, "What are we supposed to do?"
But things have shifted. Hard.
The 2025 season brought a massive reality check. When these two met on a humid Monday night in early October at EverBank Stadium, the script got flipped on its head. Most people expected the Chiefs to do their usual thing, especially after they jumped out to a 14-0 lead. But the Jags didn't blink. They clawed back, won 31-28, and proved that the gap between the "dynasty" and the "upstart" has basically evaporated.
The Night Everything Changed for Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville
Honestly, the Week 5 matchup in 2025 was one of those games that makes you question everything you know about NFL momentum. The Chiefs were rolling. They forced a goal-line fumble. They marched 97 yards. It felt like another blowout in the making.
Then came the flags.
Kansas City finished with 13 penalties. 13! That's tied for the most in the entire Mahomes era. You can’t beat a high-school team with that many mistakes, let alone a Trevor Lawrence-led offense that is finally finding its rhythm under Liam Coen.
The Devin Lloyd Moment
If you want to pinpoint exactly where this rivalry tilted, look at the third quarter. Mahomes was driving. The Chiefs were about to take control again. Instead, he threw a ball that linebacker Devin Lloyd didn’t just catch—he hijacked. Lloyd took it 99 yards the other way for a touchdown.
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It wasn't just a six-point swing. It was a 14-point soul-crusher.
It was the first time in years the Chiefs looked genuinely rattled by a Jacksonville defense. Usually, the Jags' pass rush is the story, but that night they didn't even record a sack. They didn't need to. They played with "guts," as Coen put it later, and relied on the Chiefs' own undisciplined play to pave the way.
Trevor Lawrence vs Patrick Mahomes: The New Standard
For years, the Patrick Mahomes vs Trevor Lawrence debate felt a little premature. Mahomes had the rings; Lawrence had the "generational talent" label but was stuck in a rebuild.
That's over now.
In their last meeting, Lawrence was objectively the more clutch player. He finished 18 of 25 for 221 yards and a touchdown, but his legs were the real story. He ran for 54 yards and two scores, including the game-winner with only 23 seconds left on the clock.
Think about that.
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The Chiefs’ defense, a unit that has carried them through recent Super Bowl runs, couldn't stop a quarterback who was literally stumbling as he crossed the goal line. It was a 1-yard sneak that looked more like a wrestling match than a football play. Lawrence got stepped on, fell, and still managed to break a tackle to find the end zone.
By the Numbers: October 2025 Clash
- Final Score: Jaguars 31, Chiefs 28
- Total Yards: Chiefs (476) outgained Jags (318) but lost.
- Turnovers: The Lloyd 99-yard pick-six was the difference-maker.
- Penalties: 13 for Kansas City, 4 for Jacksonville.
Why the Jaguars Aren't Scared Anymore
It's easy to look at the stats and say the Chiefs "gave" that game away. Mahomes had 378 total yards of offense. Kareem Hunt looked like his old self, grinding out tough yards. But the Jaguars have built a roster specifically designed to handle the Chiefs' style of play.
They aren't trying to out-finesse Andy Reid. They’re trying to out-work him.
The addition of Travis Hunter has been a massive storyline. While a knee injury sidelined him during the 2025 stretch, the franchise has already confirmed he's staying in his two-way role for 2026. Having a guy who can play cornerback and wide receiver at an elite level gives the Jags a "chess piece" that even Steve Spagnuolo struggles to account for.
The Jags' front office, led by James Gladstone, has pivoted toward versatility. They know they can't just sit in a zone and let Mahomes pick them apart. They need athletes like Devin Lloyd and Travon Walker who can play the pass and the run with equal violence.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Matchup
There’s this lingering idea that the Jacksonville Jaguars are still just "happy to be there." That’s a mistake.
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Since the 2022 Divisional Playoff game—where the Chiefs won 27-20 despite Mahomes playing on one leg—the Jaguars have been obsessively closing the gap. That playoff loss was a turning point. It showed the Jags they could hang, but it also exposed their lack of finishing power.
By the 2025 regular season, that power arrived.
The Jaguars are currently 13-4 and sitting at the top of the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have had a weirdly human year, finishing 6-11 in 2025. It’s a bizarro world for anyone who has followed the NFL for the last decade. The "invincibility" of Arrowhead Stadium doesn't seem to travel as well as it used to.
Looking Ahead to 2026
As we move into 2026, the dynamic of Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville has completely transformed. It’s no longer a David vs. Goliath story. It’s two heavyweights in a division-altering scrap.
Key Factors for the Next Meeting:
- The Mahomes Recovery: Mahomes has been vocal about needing a "new spark" in the offensive coaching room. With staff changes happening in K.C., expect a more creative, less conservative approach.
- The Travis Hunter Factor: If Hunter stays healthy, he’s the ultimate disruptor. Seeing him shadow Travis Kelce or Hollywood Brown while also taking deep shots on offense is something defensive coordinators are already losing sleep over.
- Discipline: Andy Reid noted that "you can out-stat them to death, but it doesn't matter if you have 13 penalties." The Chiefs have to clean up the pre-snap errors and the late-game pass interference calls that plagued them last time.
The Jaguars have found the formula. They don't need to be better than the Chiefs for 60 minutes; they just need to be more resilient in the final two. When you have Trevor Lawrence growing into a quarterback who can go toe-to-toe with the MVP and come out on top, the old "Chiefs dominance" narrative starts to feel like ancient history.
If you’re betting on the next chapter of this rivalry, look at the turnover margin. The Jags led the league in takeaways in 2025, and that aggressive defensive identity is exactly what's needed to topple a team like Kansas City. Keep an eye on the injury reports for Travis Hunter and the development of the Chiefs' reshaped coaching staff. Those are the variables that will decide the next 31-28 thriller.
For the Chiefs to regain the upper hand, they’ll need to prove that the Week 5 collapse was a fluke and not a symptom of a larger decline. For the Jaguars, it’s about proving they can sustain this "Prince who was Promised" era without letdowns. Either way, the Chiefs-Jaguars rivalry is officially the best show in the AFC right now.