Ever since the dust settled on the 2024 election, California has been a pressure cooker of "what if" scenarios. The biggest one? Whether former Vice President Kamala Harris would return home to Sacramento to take over Gavin Newsom's seat in 2026. If you've been following the Kamala Harris California governor poll numbers over the last year, you've seen a roller coaster of data that basically broke the political internet before she finally put the rumors to bed.
Honestly, the hype was massive. People were looking at her as the inevitable frontrunner, the one who would clear the field. But politics in the Golden State is never that tidy.
The Numbers That Almost Changed Everything
Back in April 2025, an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey dropped a bombshell. It showed Harris with a staggering 31% of the support in a hypothetical primary. To put that in perspective, nobody else in the field even touched double digits at the time. She wasn't just leading; she was dominating.
But here’s the thing: name recognition is a hell of a drug in polling. Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, pointed out that her advantage was largely because every single person in the state knew exactly who she was. Compare that to candidates like State Superintendent Tony Thurmond or former Controller Betty Yee. They’re influential in Sacramento, but they don't exactly have "VP status" at the grocery store.
By late 2025, the narrative shifted. Harris officially announced she wouldn't run, and suddenly, the "Harris effect" evaporated.
Who’s Actually Winning Now?
With Harris out, the race has become a wild, disorganized scramble. It’s kinda like a 10-way game of musical chairs where nobody can find a seat.
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According to the most recent December 2025 Emerson poll, the leaderboard looks like a traffic jam:
- Chad Bianco (R): 13%
- Steve Hilton (R): 12%
- Eric Swalwell (D): 12%
- Katie Porter (D): 11%
Wait, did you see that? The top two spots are currently held by Republicans. In California. In 2026.
That doesn't mean a Republican is actually going to win—Democrats outnumber them nearly two-to-one in registrations—but it shows how much the Democratic vote is being cannibalized. Eric Swalwell jumping into the race basically cut Katie Porter’s support in half. When you have five or six high-profile Democrats all fighting for the same 40% of the pie, the Republicans (who usually consolidate around one or two names) look like they're "winning" the primary.
The "Joy" vs. "Irritation" Factor
UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center did this fascinating study on the emotions behind a potential Harris run before she bowed out. It wasn't just about "will you vote for her?" It was "how do you feel about it?"
The results were... messy.
About 33% of Democrats felt "joyful" at the prospect. However, a huge chunk of independent voters felt "irritated" or "hopeless." Even among political insiders, the vibe was more "indifferent" than excited. This likely played a huge role in her decision to skip the race. If you're going to run for Governor of the largest state in the union, you usually want more than a lukewarm reception from your own party's elites.
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Why the Polls Are So Weird Right Now
If you look at the Kamala Harris California governor poll data versus the current reality, you'll notice a massive 31% of voters are still "undecided."
That is a huge number.
It means most Californians haven't even started thinking about June 2026. They're worried about the cost of living—which 34% of people say is their top issue—and housing affordability. They aren't looking at campaign posters yet.
Also, we have to talk about the "None of the Above" factor. A January 2026 poll from the Independent Voter Project showed that "None of the Above" actually beat the entire Democratic field among independent voters. People are frustrated. They feel like the state is heading in the wrong direction, and they aren't sold on the current crop of "career politicians" trying to replace Newsom.
What Happens Next?
So, if Harris isn't the savior of the California Democratic party in 2026, who is?
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The field is crowded. You've got:
- Xavier Becerra: The former HHS Secretary and AG.
- Antonio Villaraigosa: The former LA Mayor trying for a comeback.
- Eleni Kounalakis: The current Lt. Governor who has been fundraising for years.
- Tom Steyer: The billionaire activist who just jumped in.
Actionable Insights for Following the Race
If you're trying to make sense of the 2026 mess, stop looking at the "horse race" numbers for five minutes and look at these three things instead:
- The Newsom Endorsement: About 33% of voters say a Newsom endorsement makes them less likely to vote for someone. Watch who tries to distance themselves from him and who hugs him tight.
- Fundraising Reports: Since Harris opted out, the money that was "frozen" is now flowing. Keep an eye on the Q1 2026 filing. Money doesn't always buy the win (just ask Rick Caruso), but it buys the TV ads that move that 31% undecided block.
- The "Top-Two" Primary: Remember, California uses a nonpartisan primary. The top two vote-getters move on, regardless of party. If the Democrats keep splitting their vote six ways, we could actually see a November 2026 runoff between two Republicans, or a Republican and a moderate Democrat.
The ghost of the Kamala Harris California governor poll still haunts the race because it showed what a "unity" candidate looks like. Without her, the Democrats are in for a long, expensive, and potentially bruising family fight.
If you're a voter, the best move right now is to ignore the "who's winning" headlines and look at the "what are they doing" reality. The primary is in June. We've got a long way to go.
Your Next Steps
- Track the endorsements: See if the major labor unions (like SEIU) break for Porter or Villaraigosa.
- Watch the debate stage: Once the first televised debates happen in early 2026, that "undecided" number will finally start to shrink.
- Check the Republican consolidation: If Bianco and Hilton stay neck-and-neck, they might cancel each other out, giving the Democrats a breather.