So, the dust has finally settled. For months, everyone was asking the same question: between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump who will win the 2024 race? People were literally losing sleep over it. Now that we’re sitting in 2026, the answer is a matter of historical record, but the way it went down was honestly a shock to a lot of the experts who thought they had it all figured out.
Donald Trump didn't just win; he pulled off a sweep that nobody—seriously, nobody—saw coming in its entirety.
How the 2024 Election Actually Played Out
Basically, it came down to the "Blue Wall." Or, well, the lack of one. On election night, the map started turning red in places Democrats usually count on. Trump ended up securing 312 electoral votes, leaving Harris with 226. It wasn't just a squeaker in the Electoral College either. For the first time in his three runs for the White House, Trump actually won the national popular vote too.
He pulled in about 77.3 million votes, which is roughly 49.8% of the total. Harris followed with about 75 million votes, or 48.3%.
It’s wild when you look at the swing states. Trump took all seven of them. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all went red. Pennsylvania was the big one, the "tipping point" state, and Trump took it by about 1.7 percentage points. If you were watching the returns, that was the moment where the "who will win" question was basically answered.
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The Numbers That Mattered
- Trump Electoral Votes: 312
- Harris Electoral Votes: 226
- Swing State Sweep: 7 for 7 (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI)
- Popular Vote Margin: ~1.5% in favor of Trump
Why the Polls Kinda Missed the Mark
Everyone was looking at the polling data and thinking it would be a "margin of error" kind of night. And in some states, it was. But what the pundits missed was the massive shift in who was actually showing up to vote.
Trump built this incredibly diverse coalition. We’re talking about significant gains with Hispanic and Black voters—groups that have historically been the backbone of the Democratic party. According to Pew Research, Trump almost hit parity with Hispanic voters, getting about 48% compared to Harris’s 51%. That’s a massive jump from 2020.
Harris did well with college-educated voters, winning that group 57% to 41%, but it wasn't enough to offset the rural surge. Trump won rural areas by a staggering 40 points. You’ve gotta realize that in a race this tight, those kinds of gaps are impossible to bridge with just urban centers.
The Turning Points and The "Vibe" Shift
Honestly, the whole campaign felt like a rollercoaster. You had the moment Joe Biden stepped aside in July 2024 after that rough debate performance. Suddenly, Kamala Harris was the nominee. It brought a ton of energy at first—the "coconut tree" memes, the fundraising records, all of it.
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But then the reality of the economy and immigration started to weigh things down. People were feeling the pinch at the grocery store. Trump leaned hard into that. He framed the election as a choice between the status quo and a complete overhaul.
Then there were the literal "Black Swan" events. The assassination attempts on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, and later in Florida. Those moments didn't just dominate the news cycle; they solidified his base in a way that made the "who will win" debate feel more like a foregone conclusion for his supporters.
What Happened After the Win?
Trump was sworn in as the 47th President on January 20, 2025. Because of some crazy freezing weather in D.C. that day, they actually had to move the ceremony inside the U.S. Capitol Rotunda. It was only the second time a president has been inaugurated for a non-consecutive second term—the last guy to do it was Grover Cleveland back in the late 1800s.
Since taking office, the administration has been moving fast. We've seen a record number of executive orders—over 200 in the first year alone—touching everything from energy production to border security.
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One of the more surprising moves was the "Most Favored Nation" drug pricing deal in late 2025. They basically forced big pharma to give Medicare recipients the same prices that people in Europe pay. It was a populist move that even some of his critics had to admit was a big deal for seniors.
Actionable Takeaways for Following Future Elections
If you're still dissecting the Kamala Harris and Donald Trump who will win saga to prepare for the next cycle, here are a few things to keep in mind:
- Ignore the "National" Polling: In a country with an Electoral College, the national popular vote is mostly a vanity metric. Focus on the "tipping point" states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
- Watch the Margins in Demographics: The 2024 election proved that no party "owns" a specific racial or ethnic group. Trends can shift fast based on economic concerns.
- Turnout is King: Trump won because 89% of his 2020 voters showed up again, while only about 85% of Biden’s 2020 voters turned out for Harris.
- The "Underdog" Effect: Never count out a candidate who has a highly energized, almost "devotional" base, regardless of what the mainstream media narrative says.
The 2024 election wasn't just another vote; it was a total realignment of the American political map. Understanding that the "who will win" question was ultimately decided by a shift in working-class and minority voters is the key to understanding where the country is headed next.