Polls are fickle. One day you’re up, the next you’re being blamed for the price of eggs. Honestly, looking at the kamala and trump polls today, it’s clear that the political landscape in early 2026 is anything but stable. We’ve moved past the 2024 election cycle, and Donald Trump is back in the White House, but the "honeymoon phase" seems to have packed its bags and left the building.
People are frustrated. If you check the latest Quinnipiac and AP-NORC data from mid-January 2026, the numbers aren't exactly a victory lap for the current administration. Trump’s job approval is sitting at about 40%, with a hefty 54% of voters disapproving. It’s a stark contrast to the 49.8% of the popular vote he secured just over a year ago. Basically, the excitement of the campaign has been replaced by the grit of governing, and voters are holding him to a very high standard—especially when it comes to their wallets.
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The Economy is Brusing Both Brands
You’ve probably noticed that the economy is the only thing anyone wants to talk about. While Trump keeps insisting a "boom" is happening, the polls say the public isn't feeling it yet. Only 37% of U.S. adults approve of his handling of the economy. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a president who campaigned on financial strength. A big chunk of the blame—about 6 in 10 people—say his policies have actually hurt the cost of living rather than helping it.
But where does Kamala Harris fit into this?
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Even though she isn't in the White House right now, her ghost haunts the 2028 speculation. Early polls for the next Democratic primary show her in a bit of a scramble. In California, for instance, an Emerson College poll has her at just 9% support among Democratic primary voters, trailing behind Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg. It turns out that being the face of the previous administration's economic record is a heavy lift, even years later.
Foreign Policy and the "Too Far" Factor
It’s not just about money. Trump’s recent moves abroad—like the intervention in Venezuela and the odd back-and-forth about Greenland—have people on edge.
- 56% of adults think he’s gone "too far" with military interventions.
- 70% of voters are flat-out against military action in Iran.
- Foreign policy approval specifically has dipped to 41%.
There is a weird tension here. Most Republicans (about 71%) think he’s doing just fine, but independents have shifted significantly. When you look at kamala and trump polls today, the story is really about that middle 30% of the country. They’re the ones who swung the election in 2024, and right now, they’re looking at the current state of affairs with a lot of skepticism.
Kamala Harris and the 2028 Shadow
Harris hasn't disappeared. She's expressed interest in 2028, but the path back to the top is cluttered. While she maintains nearly 90% favorability among hardcore Democrats, the broader public is still split. In late 2025, YouGov trackers showed her favorability neck-and-neck with Trump’s—both hovering in the mid-40s.
It’s a strange "status quo" where neither leader can truly break away.
The 2026 midterms are the real test. Right now, Democrats actually hold a 4.5-point edge in the generic House ballot. This suggests that while Harris herself is finding her footing as a former VP, the party is benefiting from the "anti-incumbent" sentiment that almost always hits a sitting president in their second year.
Why These Polls Actually Matter Right Now
You might think 2026 is too early to care about 2028 or even the specifics of approval ratings. But these numbers dictate what gets passed in Congress. With Trump’s approval underwater, some Republicans are starting to look at the 2026 midterms with a bit of "every man for himself" energy. If the president can’t keep his numbers up, his ability to push through major tariffs or immigration overhauls gets much harder.
Honestly, the most interesting data point is how many people are willing to change their minds. About 40% of the electorate says they could flip their view on Trump’s job performance based entirely on whether inflation cools down by the summer.
Politics isn't a team sport for everyone; for a lot of people, it’s just a "is my life better today than it was yesterday?" calculation.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should keep a close eye on the "Generic Congressional Ballot" and regional polls in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan over the next three months. These are the truest indicators of whether the current dissatisfaction is a temporary dip or a long-term trend that could reshape the 2026 midterms. Track the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports alongside these polls; if the "phony" numbers Trump mentions start to align with public perception of lower prices, expect his 40% approval to jump toward the 50% mark rapidly.