Links golf is weird. It’s a completely different sport from the high-flying, target-practice style we see most weeks on the PGA Tour. For a guy like Justin Thomas, a man who can manufacture shots that leave other pros scratching their heads, you’d think the creative demands of a British links would be a perfect playground.
Honestly? It hasn't worked out that way.
When we talk about Justin Thomas and The Open, we’re talking about one of the most puzzling relationships in modern golf. He’s a two-time PGA Champion. He’s been World No. 1. He has 16 PGA Tour wins, including a massive "get right" victory at the 2025 RBC Heritage where he took down Andrew Novak in a playoff. But at The Open Championship? The Claret Jug feels like it’s being kept in a vault he hasn't found the combination for yet.
The Struggles are Real
Look at the numbers. They aren't pretty for a Hall of Fame talent. In 2023 at Royal Liverpool, Thomas shot a staggering 82 in the opening round. He missed the cut by a mile.
Fast forward to 2024 at Royal Troon. There was a glimmer of hope. He opened with a 68, which was actually his best-ever start at an Open Championship. He was sitting in third place after Thursday! You’re thinking, "Okay, JT has finally figured out how to flight it under the wind." Then Friday happened. A 78. Just like that, the momentum evaporated, and he eventually finished T31. Better than a missed cut, sure, but not what a guy with his hardware expects.
His career best is still a T11 at Royal Portrush back in 2019. Since then, it’s been a mix of T40, T53, and early exits.
Why is this happening? Most experts point to his high ball flight. JT is a "slasher" in the best sense—he uses his hands and body to create massive speed and height. On a soft course in Kentucky, that’s a superpower. In a 30-mph crosswind at St. Andrews or Troon, it’s a liability. If you launch it high into a Scottish gale, the wind is going to take that ball for a ride you didn't ask for.
The 2025 Renaissance and the Road to Royal Portrush
Something changed in early 2025. After a brutal stretch in late 2023 and most of 2024 where he fell out of the top 30 in the world, Thomas found his groove again. His win at Harbour Town—a course that requires precision over power—proved he can play "small ball."
📖 Related: Estados Unidos vs Haiti: Why This Matchup Always Defies Expectations
He tied the course record there with a 61 in the first round. He ended 2025 with 8 top-10 finishes. He was back.
But then, the injury bug bit. Just as he was looking like a favorite for the 2026 season, Thomas had to undergo a microdiscectomy for a disc issue in his back in November 2025. It's the same kind of surgery that has sidelined many greats.
As of January 2026, he’s back to making full swings. He’s being patient, which isn't exactly his strongest suit. He’s already admitted he’ll miss some early 2026 events to make sure he’s 100% for the majors. The goal is clear: get the body right for the return to Royal Portrush in 2025 (where he had that career-best T11) and the upcoming 2026 rotation.
What Most People Get Wrong About JT's Links Game
People say he can't putt on slow greens. That’s a common knock. But if you look at his 2025 stats before the surgery, he was actually 14th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting. He’s a much better lag putter than he gets credit for.
The real issue is the "Big Miss." At The Open, a big miss isn't just a bogey; it’s a triple. When JT gets frustrated, he tends to get faster. In links golf, fast is fatal. You have to be okay with hitting a 6-iron from 150 yards and letting it trundle 40 yards along the ground. It’s an ego check.
Can He Actually Win One?
Critics will say he’s too much of a "finesse" player for the grind of a rainy, cold Open. I disagree. Thomas is a grinder. You don't win two PGAs by being soft.
- He has the shot-making: He can hit the low "stinger" when he’s dialed in.
- He has the short game: He’s consistently ranked in the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
- The Portrush factor: He likes that course. He has good vibes there.
The 2026 season is going to be a massive test. Coming off back surgery is no joke for a guy who generates as much torque as he does. He’s 32 now. He’s in that "peak" window where the experience is there, but the body is starting to demand more maintenance.
If you’re betting on Justin Thomas and The Open, you’re betting on his maturity. You're betting that the 2025 comeback wasn't a fluke and that his new, more patient approach—forced upon him by surgery—will actually help him navigate the mental hurdles of links golf.
Actionable Insights for Following JT in 2026:
📖 Related: Larry Bird 3 Point Shootout: What Really Happened in the Locker Room
- Watch the swing speed: If he’s swinging at 100% right out of the gate in his return, watch for back flare-ups. If he’s smooth and controlled, his accuracy might actually improve.
- Check the Scottish Open results: He traditionally plays the week before The Open. If he makes the cut and finishes top-20 there, he’s usually a safe bet to at least make the weekend at the Major.
- Monitor the wind stats: JT still struggles when the wind gust is over 20 mph. If the forecast for The Open looks calm, his odds skyrocket. If it's a "gale-force" year, look elsewhere.
Justin Thomas is too good to never contend for a Claret Jug. It’s just a matter of whether his back and his patience hold up long enough to let his talent do the talking.