People love to talk about the "clutch gene." It is that invisible, unmeasurable quality we assign to quarterbacks who win playoff games while wearing a stoic expression. If you listen to the talking heads on Sunday mornings, they’ll tell you Justin Herbert doesn’t have it. They point at the 0-3 postseason record. They bring up the 16-3 loss to the Patriots just a few days ago.
But honestly? That narrative is basically a lie.
If you actually watch the tape from the 2025 season, you see a guy playing through a fractured left hand. You see a quarterback getting sacked six times in a single playoff game because his right tackle was out for the year. Football is a team sport, yet we treat quarterback wins like a solo tennis metric. It’s weird.
The Harbaugh Effect and the 2025 Reality
When Jim Harbaugh showed up in Los Angeles, everyone expected a miracle. And in many ways, they got one. The Chargers won 11 games this year. Herbert threw for 3,727 yards and 26 touchdowns. That’s elite production by any standard, especially considering he spent a chunk of the season throwing to a rotating door of receivers while Greg Roman tried to turn the offense into a ground-and-pound machine.
The toughness is what the stats don't show. Khalil Mack—a guy who has seen everything in this league—literally called Herbert the toughest quarterback he’s ever played with. Think about that. Mack played with guys who would barely get up after a hit; Herbert was out there trying to stiff-arm linebackers with a hand that had surgery on it a week prior.
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Breaking Down the "Postseason Woes"
The critics are loud right now. They're obsessed with the three playoff losses. Let's look at the facts:
- 2022 vs. Jaguars: A 27-0 lead evaporated. Was that on Herbert? Or a defense that couldn't stop a nosebleed in the second half?
- 2024 vs. Texans: Four interceptions in a blowout. That one hurt. It was a bad game, no excuses.
- 2025 vs. Patriots: 19-of-31 for 159 yards. He looked human. But he was also under siege. New England’s front four lived in the backfield.
Harbaugh’s defense of his guy was simple: "Justin's a winner." He isn't just saying that to be nice. He’s seen the 11-5 regular season record from 2025. He’s seen the game-winning drives. The problem isn't the arm or the heart; it’s the infrastructure.
What the Numbers Actually Tell Us
If you want to understand why the Chargers are still all-in on number 10, look at the efficiency. Despite the injuries and the scheme changes, Herbert finished the 2024 season with a 91.2 PFF grade. In 2025, his TD-to-INT ratio remained among the league's best for a significant stretch. He’s 27 years old and already has nearly 25,000 passing yards.
People forget how rare that is.
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We’ve become so spoiled by the "instant greatness" of a few outliers that we forget most legendary careers have these middle-period stumbles. Peyton Manning didn't win a playoff game until his sixth season. Drew Brees was practically run out of San Diego before he became a god in New Orleans.
The Supporting Cast Gap
In 2025, the Chargers' offensive line was a mess. Rashawn Slater's setbacks meant Herbert was often running for his life. You can't execute a deep-passing game if you have 2.1 seconds before a 300-pound defensive end is in your lap.
The team also lacked a true "take the top off" threat for much of the year. Ladd McConkey has been a great find, but this offense needs more speed. It’s telling that the organization fired Greg Roman immediately after the Patriots loss. They know the current system isn't maximizing what Herbert can do.
Why 2026 is the True "Make or Break" Year
The Chargers are heading into Year 3 of the Harbaugh era with a massive decision on their hands regarding the offensive identity. They need a coordinator who doesn't just want to run the ball, but who understands how to use Herbert’s 60-yard lasers as a primary weapon.
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Expect the front office to prioritize:
- High-end Tackle Depth: They can't afford another season where one injury collapses the pocket.
- Vertical Speed: Herbert needs a receiver who can win a track meet.
- Interior Pressure: The defense needs to give him more short fields.
The "Justin Herbert can't win the big one" talk is going to be the theme of the entire 2026 offseason. It’s the easiest, laziest take in sports media. But if you're actually paying attention to the grit he showed this year—playing through pain that would put most people in a hospital bed—you know the breakthrough is coming.
Stop looking at the 0-3 playoff record as a permanent stamp. Look at it as the scar tissue. The talent is too high for this to stay the narrative forever.
Actionable Insight for Fans and Analysts: When evaluating Herbert this offseason, ignore the "win-loss" column for a second and look at "Success Rate Under Pressure." He remains a top-5 quarterback in the league when the play breaks down. To fix the Chargers, the team needs to stop the plays from breaking down in the first place, rather than asking their quarterback to be a superhero every single Sunday.