Baseball is a weird, weird game. One day you’re a former "bust" signing for the league minimum, and the next, you’re the centerpiece of a $42 million plan for one of the most consistent franchises in the National League. That’s the reality for Jurickson Profar. When the Atlanta Braves backed up the truck for him in January 2025, it felt like the ultimate "I told you so" for a guy who was the top prospect in baseball back when Vine was still a thing.
But the marriage between Jurickson Profar and the Atlanta Braves hasn't exactly been a fairy tale. Not yet, anyway.
If you’ve been following the box scores, you know the vibe. It started with a massive contract—three years, $42 million—and then hit a brick wall immediately. Literally four games into the 2025 season, the news broke: an 80-game suspension for PEDs (hCG). It felt like a gut punch to a Braves fanbase that was already mourning the early-season absence of Ronald Acuña Jr. People were calling the deal a disaster before the ink was even dry on the first paycheck. Honestly, looking at it through that lens, you’d think the Braves got fleeced.
But there is a lot more to this story than a 50-game absence and a positive test.
Why the Braves Bet Big on Profar
Alex Anthopoulos doesn't usually gamble. He’s the guy who finds value where others see projects. When the Braves signed Profar, they weren't just looking at his 2024 All-Star campaign with the Padres—though that .280/.380/.459 line was nothing to sneeze at. They were looking at a fundamental shift in how he hit the ball.
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The "new" Profar wasn't a fluke. He added a leg kick, opened up his stance, and saw his average exit velocity jump from a mediocre 86.5 mph to 91.1 mph. That is a massive gain in the world of Statcast. The Braves saw a switch-hitter who could control the zone (90th percentile in chase rate) and fill the massive hole in left field.
It made sense. It really did.
The contract structure was also classic Atlanta:
- 2025: $12 million
- 2026: $15 million
- 2027: $15 million
Basically, they paid for the 4.3 fWAR player they saw in San Diego. They wanted the guy who could lead off or hit in the middle of the order while Acuña recovered from his second ACL tear.
The 2025 Season: A Tale of Two Halves
When Profar finally returned in July 2025, the pressure was suffocating. The Braves had been treading water with a rotation of Jarred Kelenic and a struggling Alex Verdugo. In fact, the team DFA'd Verdugo specifically to make room for Profar's return. Talk about a "no pressure" situation.
He didn't disappoint. Not entirely.
While he wasn't eligible for the 2025 postseason because of the suspension—a massive detail most people forget—he played like a man possessed in the regular season. In 76 games, he slashed .248 with 14 home runs and 43 RBIs. If you scale that across 162 games, you're looking at a 30-homer, 90-RBI season.
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He didn't just return; he salvaged his reputation.
The pop didn't vanish. That was the biggest fear, right? Everyone thought the power was "chemically induced," but the underlying metrics stayed solid after he came back clean. He was still hitting the ball hard. He was still drawing walks. He was still that irritating out for opposing pitchers.
What to Expect for the 2026 Season
Now we’re here in 2026, and the narrative is shifting again. Profar is 32. He’s no longer the "new guy" or the "suspended guy." He’s just a key part of the Braves' outfield.
The projection systems are actually kind of bullish on him this year. FanGraphs has him pegged for something like a .254 average with 18 home runs and 70 RBIs. That might sound modest compared to his 2024 peak, but for a team that has Michael Harris II and a healthy Ronald Acuña Jr. (hopefully) roaming the grass, that's exactly what they need from the third outfielder.
Expectations are different now.
- Postseason Eligibility: He’s back in the clear. If the Braves make a run, Profar will actually be in the dugout this time.
- The Leadoff Shuffle: With Acuña back, Profar likely moves down the order, which might actually help his RBI totals.
- Defensive Stability: He’s settled into left field. No more "utility man" wandering. He knows his spot.
The "Bust" Label is Officially Dead
Can we finally stop calling him a bust? It took 11 years, but Jurickson Profar found himself. The road from Texas to Oakland to San Diego to Colorado and finally to Atlanta was messy. It was weird. But the talent that made him the #1 prospect in 2013 is finally manifesting as veteran reliability.
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Is the $42 million contract a steal? No. Is it an albatross? Also no. It’s a fair price for a high-OBP switch-hitter in a league where those are increasingly rare.
The Braves took a hit in 2025, but they’re positioned to reap the rewards in 2026 and 2027. If Profar can just stay on the field and keep that exit velocity north of 90 mph, the "disastrous offseason" of 2025 will look like a very distant memory.
Actionable Insights for Braves Fans
- Watch the Exit Velo: If Profar’s hard-hit rate stays above 40%, the 2025 suspension was likely a blip, not the source of his power.
- Monitor the Batting Order: If he's hitting 5th or 6th behind the "Big Three," his RBI opportunities will skyrocket.
- Check the Splits: Profar has historically been better as a right-handed hitter; watch how Brian Snitker uses him against tough lefties this summer.
The 2026 season is the real "prove it" year for Profar in Atlanta. No more excuses, no more suspensions—just baseball. It’s going to be a fun ride to watch.