So, you're tracking Juan Soto's home run count for 2026? Good call. Honestly, since he moved across town to Queens, the "Soto Shuffle" has a completely different energy. After that mind-blowing 15-year, $765 million contract he signed with the New York Mets, everyone and their mother is watching to see if he can actually live up to being a three-quarters-of-a-billion-dollar man.
It's January 2026, which means the 2026 MLB season hasn't officially kicked off yet. Pitchers and catchers are just starting to think about packing their bags for Port St. Lucie. If you’re looking for his current "in-season" total for this calendar year, it’s sitting at 0. But don't click away—because the context of where he’s at right now matters more than that zero.
Coming off a 2025 season that was, frankly, kind of ridiculous, Soto is projected to be an absolute monster this year. Last year, he silenced any doubters by smacking a career-high 43 home runs. He didn't just hit for power, though; he turned into a legitimate speed threat, swiping 38 bags. He basically reinvented himself while wearing a Mets jersey.
Juan Soto home runs this year: What the projections say
Most of the big-name projection systems like Steamer and ZiPS are already crunching the numbers for 2026. They’re expecting him to land somewhere in the 35 to 40 home run range. Why the slight dip from 43? Well, baseball is weird, and 43 is a massive number to repeat, especially with the way pitchers might start nibbling even more than usual.
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You've gotta remember that Soto’s eye is his best weapon. He led the league with 127 walks last year. When you walk that much, you simply get fewer pitches to drive over the fence.
Why the 2026 season feels different
This year is the first time Soto enters a season with absolute, long-term stability. No trade rumors. No looming free agency. Just a guy and his $51 million annual salary. For some players, that pressure is a lead weight. For Soto? He seems like the type of dude who treats a high-pressure situation like a casual Sunday brunch.
- The Venue Factor: Citi Field used to be a graveyard for left-handed power, but they've moved those fences enough that it’s now a fair fight.
- The Lineup Support: Having Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo around him means pitchers can’t just walk him every single time. Or well, they can, but they'll pay for it.
- The Age Curve: Soto is only 27. Most ballplayers don't even hit their "true" physical peak until 28 or 29. That’s a scary thought for the rest of the NL East.
A look back at the power surge
If you look at his trajectory, Soto has evolved from a gap-to-gap hitter into a pure pull-power threat when he wants to be.
In 2023 with the Padres, he hit 35.
In 2024 with the Yankees, he hit 41.
In 2025 with the Mets, he hit 43.
He’s literally getting better at hitting the ball out of the park every single year. If that trend continues, we’re looking at a guy who could flirt with 50 home runs in 2026 if he stays healthy and the wind blows the right way.
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Breaking down the career totals
Heading into the 2026 season, Juan Soto has 244 career home runs. Think about that for a second. He hasn't even hit 30 years old and he's already closing in on the 250-mark. At this pace, 500 isn't just a possibility; it feels like an inevitability as long as his knees hold up.
Last year was particularly special because of that 40/30 season. Nobody—and I mean nobody—expected Juan Soto to become a base-stealer. His sprint speed is actually in the bottom 15% of the league, which makes those 38 steals feel like some sort of glitch in the Matrix. But it shows his baseball IQ. He knows when to go. If he’s focusing that much energy on the bases again in 2026, his home run numbers might stay in the high 30s rather than jumping to 50, just because of the sheer physical toll.
What to watch for in April
Once the 2026 season starts, watch his "Opposite Field Percentage." When Soto is struggling, he tries to pull everything. When he’s locked in? He’s hitting 420-foot lasers to left-center. That’s the version of Soto that wins MVPs.
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The Mets missed the playoffs last year despite his heroics, so the vibe in the clubhouse is going to be intense from Day 1. He isn't just playing for stats anymore; he's playing to prove that the Mets' massive investment was the move that finally changed the franchise's luck.
If you’re checking this during the season, the best way to stay updated is through the live MLB Statcast leaderboard. It’ll give you the exit velocity and launch angle on every dinger he hits. Honestly, his "no-doubters" are some of the most aesthetically pleasing home runs in the game today.
Keep an eye on his health during Spring Training. As long as he breaks camp with the starting lineup, 2026 is likely going to be another year where he's a top-3 MVP finalist.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season:
- Fantasy Baseball Tip: Draft him in the top 5 without blinking. His floor is higher than almost anyone else in the league because the walks keep his value up even when the power fluctuates.
- Stat Tracking: Watch his home/road splits at Citi Field. Last year he actually hit better on the road, so if he gets comfortable at home, 45+ homers is on the table.
- Betting Markets: Keep an eye on his "To Hit a Home Run" props during series in hitter-friendly parks like Citizens Bank Park or Coors Field; he historically destroys the Phillies.