Honestly, looking back at the 2019 NFL Draft feels like stepping into a different era of football philosophy. At the time, the "running backs don't matter" movement was hitting a fever pitch. Analysts were screaming from the rooftops that you should never, ever use a first-round selection on a ball carrier. Then the Oakland Raiders—led by the ever-unpredictable duo of Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock—decided to tune out the noise. They made the Josh Jacobs draft pick at 24th overall, and the ripples from that decision are still felt today in how teams value "bell-cow" backs.
It’s easy to forget that Jacobs wasn't even the clear-cut, undisputed RB1 on everyone's board. He had to share the backfield at Alabama with guys like Damien Harris and Najee Harris. He didn't have the 2,000-yard college seasons that usually warrant a Day 1 call. But the Raiders saw something different. They saw a guy who had fresh legs, violent contact balance, and a chip on his shoulder the size of Oklahoma.
The 24th Pick: A High-Stakes Gamble or a Masterstroke?
When the Raiders used the 24th overall pick on Jacobs, they weren't just picking a player; they were making a statement about their identity. This was a pick acquired from the Chicago Bears in the infamous Khalil Mack trade. There was massive pressure for this specific slot to yield a foundational piece. Most "draft gurus" expected a pass rusher or a cornerback. Instead, Gruden wanted a closer.
Basically, the logic was simple. If you're going to take a running back in the first round, he has to be a three-down player who can pass protect, catch, and grind out four yards when the defense knows it's coming. Jacobs fit that to a T. He had only 251 carries in three years at Alabama. In the NFL world, that's what we call "low mileage." While other prospects were coming into the league with 600+ touches and banged-up knees, Jacobs was just getting started.
He didn't just meet expectations; he shattered them. In his rookie year, he broke Marcus Allen’s franchise rookie rushing record, totaling 1,150 yards in just 13 games. You've gotta remember he did most of that with a fractured shoulder. That kind of toughness is exactly why the Raiders felt justified in ignoring the "positional value" spreadsheets.
Why Alabama's Rotational System Blurred the Vision
A lot of scouts got tripped up by the stats. If you just looked at the box scores, you’d see a guy who never topped 640 rushing yards in a single college season. That's usually a red flag for a first-rounder. But if you actually watched the tape of the 2018 SEC Championship game against Georgia, you saw the MVP. You saw a player who could dominate a game without needing 30 carries.
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Nick Saban’s system at Alabama is notorious for this. They cycle through five-star recruits like a revolving door. For Jacobs, this was actually a blessing in disguise. He learned how to be efficient. He learned how to play on special teams—returning kickoffs—which is rare for a top-tier RB prospect. He was the "Swiss Army Knife" of that offense, even if the raw yardage didn't scream "superstar."
The "Draft Day" Narrative vs. Reality
There's this common misconception that the Raiders reached for him. They didn't. Most teams had him as the clear RB1, but the "reach" narrative came from the fact that Philadelphia and other RB-needy teams were waiting to see if he’d slide to the second round. The Raiders knew that if they didn't pull the trigger at 24, he was gone.
Interestingly, the 2019 draft class for the Raiders was a mixed bag. They had three first-rounders:
- Clelin Ferrell (4th overall) - largely considered a bust relative to his slot.
- Josh Jacobs (24th overall) - a perennial Pro Bowler and rushing champ.
- Johnathan Abram (27th overall) - a hard hitter who struggled with injuries and coverage.
Jacobs was the undisputed win of that group. He provided the only consistent "A+" return on investment for the Mayock era.
The Financial Reality of a First-Round Running Back
People love to argue about the "fifth-year option." This is a huge part of the Josh Jacobs draft pick conversation. By taking him in the first round, the Raiders secured the right to keep him for five years on a controlled salary. In a world where elite backs want $12 million to $15 million a year, having a guy like Jacobs for under $4 million a year in his prime is a massive competitive advantage.
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Of course, the drama eventually arrived. By 2023, the Raiders and Jacobs hit a wall. He had just led the league in rushing with 1,653 yards in 2022, proving he was the best in the business. But the team was hesitant to hand out a massive long-term deal. This is the "curse" of the first-round RB; you're so good that you price yourself out of the team that drafted you.
Eventually, he moved on to the Green Bay Packers in 2024. It felt weird seeing him in Green and Gold, but it also validated his draft status. He wasn't just a "system back" in Vegas. He was a talent that another storied franchise was willing to pay top dollar for even as he approached the dreaded "age 26 wall."
What We Can Learn from the Jacobs Selection
So, what’s the actionable takeaway for fans or even amateur scouts? Honestly, it’s that context matters more than volume. If you're evaluating a player, don't just look at how many yards they got. Look at how they got them. Jacobs won with "forced missed tackles" and "yards after contact." Those stats translate to the NFL; raw yardage behind a dominant offensive line often doesn't.
If you’re following the draft this year, look for the "Jacobs type."
- Low career touches? (Good)
- High efficiency in a rotation? (Very good)
- Elite contact balance? (Essential)
- Special teams experience? (A sign of a high-floor player)
The Josh Jacobs story is a reminder that the "experts" who say you should never draft a running back early are often right—until they aren't. Sometimes, a player's individual talent is so high that it overrides the "math" of the game. Jacobs was that outlier. He gave a struggling franchise an identity for half a decade.
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If you want to track how these picks age, start looking at "scrimmage yards per touch" rather than just total touchdowns. It tells a much truer story of whether a guy has the "juice" to survive the jump from Saturday to Sunday. Jacobs had it in spades back in 2019, and frankly, he’s still proving people wrong today in Green Bay.
To truly understand the value of a draft pick, you have to look at the "replacement level." Who would the Raiders have had if they didn't pick Josh? A rotating door of veterans like Doug Martin or Isaiah Crowell? Instead, they got a rushing king. That's worth the 24th pick every single time, regardless of what the analytics say.
Check the current roster of any team complaining about their run game. Chances are, they tried to "cheap out" on the position and ended up with a bottom-tier offense. The Raiders didn't make that mistake with Jacobs. They got exactly what they paid for: a cornerstone.
Next Steps for Evaluation:
- Compare Jacobs' college "touches per game" to current prospects to identify "fresh legs" candidates.
- Research "Yards After Contact" (YAC) rankings for the upcoming draft class; this was the metric that predicted Jacobs' success.
- Analyze how many first-round RBs from 2018-2024 actually signed a second contract with their original team to understand the real "long-term value" of the position.