Nobody saw it coming. Well, maybe Buffalo fans did, but the rest of the football world was ready to crown Lamar Jackson for the third time.
Then Feb. 6, 2025, happened at the Saenger Theatre in New Orleans. When the envelope opened at the NFL Honors, it wasn't the guy with the record-breaking passing efficiency or the 41 touchdowns. It was Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills quarterback secured his first-ever MVP trophy in what turned out to be the tightest, most brain-melting voting split we've seen in nearly a decade.
The 2024 NFL MVP Winner: How Josh Allen Actually Pulled It Off
If you just look at the raw passing yards, you'd be confused. Josh Allen finished 14th in passing yards. 14th! Usually, that's a one-way ticket to being "just another Pro Bowler." But the 2024 season was weird. Stats didn't tell the whole story, and the voters knew it.
Josh Allen basically dragged a "rebuilding" Bills team to a 13-4 record. Remember the offseason? Everyone said Buffalo was cooked. They traded Stefon Diggs to Houston. They let Gabe Davis walk to Jacksonville. The narrative was that Allen had nobody to throw to except a rookie in Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir.
But he just kept winning.
He didn't force the ball as much. Honestly, he became a more boring player, and that's exactly why he won. He threw a career-low six interceptions. For a guy known as a "human turnover machine" in previous years, that was the ultimate character arc. He ended up with 41 total touchdowns (28 passing, 12 rushing, and even one receiving score).
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He’s now the only player in NFL history with five straight seasons of 40-plus offensive touchdowns. Not Mahomes. Not Brady. Not Manning. Just the guy from Firebaugh.
The Great All-Pro Disconnect
Here is where it gets spicy. This is the part that has Ravens fans (and logic fans) screaming at their monitors.
Lamar Jackson was named the First-Team All-Pro quarterback for 2024. Josh Allen was Second-Team. Usually, the First-Team All-Pro QB wins the MVP. It’s basically a law of nature. Before this year, the last time a First-Team All-Pro QB didn't win MVP was 1987, when John Elway took the MVP and Joe Montana took the All-Pro honors.
So, how did the same group of 50 voters pick Lamar as the "best" quarterback but Josh as the "most valuable" player?
- The "Less with More" Argument: Voters felt Lamar had a better supporting cast. Derrick Henry was busy rushing for 2,000 yards (well, close to it at 1,921). The Ravens' defense was a brick wall.
- The "Everyone Eats" Offense: Allen operated without a true #1 receiver. He made everyone better.
- The Closeness: The final tally was 383 points for Allen and 362 for Jackson. Allen got 27 first-place votes. Lamar got 23. That’s a four-vote difference.
Breaking Down the 2024 MVP Numbers
Let's look at the actual production. It’s kinda fascinating because, on paper, Lamar Jackson actually had the "better" season in several categories.
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Lamar threw for 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns with only four interceptions. His passer rating was a staggering 119.6—the fourth-highest in the history of the league. He also rushed for 915 yards.
On the other side, Josh Allen had 3,731 passing yards and 28 passing touchdowns.
Wait.
Why did Allen win?
It’s the rushing touchdowns and the situational football. Allen’s 12 rushing scores were a massive part of Buffalo’s red-zone identity. He also took only 14 sacks all year. That is almost impossible for a guy who plays as physically as he does. He led an offense that scored 30-plus points in 12 different games.
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What About the Others?
While the world was obsessed with the Allen vs. Lamar heavyweight bout, a few other names actually got some love.
- Saquon Barkley: The man was a beast in Philadelphia. He finished third in the voting after rushing for 2,005 yards. He single-handedly changed the Eagles' identity.
- Joe Burrow: He led the league in passing yards (4,918) and finished fourth in the voting.
- Jared Goff: The Lions leader came in fifth, proving that Detroit’s run wasn't just a fluke.
Why This Win Changes Everything for Allen
Before 2024, the knock on Josh Allen was always "he’s too risky." He’d make a play that looked like God himself touched his arm, and then three plays later, he’d throw a pick-six into triple coverage.
This MVP season proved he could evolve. He took care of the ball. He played "winning football" instead of just "highlight football." Even though the Bills eventually lost to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (again) in the AFC Championship, this trophy validates him as a superstar who can win with his brain, not just his brawn.
He’s now in an elite club. Only four active quarterbacks have an MVP. Allen, Mahomes, Lamar, and Aaron Rodgers. That’s the list.
The Actionable Takeaway for Fans and Bettors
If you're looking at the 2025 season and beyond, the 2024 nfl mvp winner race taught us three very important things:
- Turnovers are the MVP killer: If Allen hadn't cut his interceptions from 18 down to 6, he wouldn't have even been a finalist.
- Narrative is King: Leading a "gutted" roster to a division title is worth more to voters than having the best stats on a stacked team.
- The All-Pro "Rule" is Dead: Never assume the First-Team All-Pro selection is a lock for MVP. The criteria are shifting toward who is literally carrying the heaviest load for their franchise.
If you’re tracking the next race, keep an eye on "offensive EPA per dropback" and turnover percentages. Those were the secret sauces that flipped the script for Josh Allen in 2024.
Move forward with the knowledge that the MVP isn't just a "best stats" award anymore. It’s a "who can you not live without" award. And in 2024, the NFL decided that person was Josh Allen.