Political numbers are a messy business. One day you’re the rising star of the GOP with a camouflage-clad "make 'em squeal" ad, and the next, you’re navigating the choppy waters of a shifting purple-to-red state. Joni Ernst has always been a bit of a polling enigma. While some pundits look at the joni ernst approval rating and see a red flag, others see a resilient incumbent who has spent a decade defying the data.
Actually, the story is far more nuanced than a simple thumbs up or thumbs down.
By mid-2025, the data started looking a little grim for the Senator. A Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey released in June 2025 showed Ernst with a 39% approval rating, while 47% of Iowans disapproved of her performance. That’s a -8 net favorability. Not exactly the kind of numbers you want to take to the bank. A few months later, in August 2025, things dipped further. Another PPP poll found her approval at 37% and her disapproval climbing to 50%.
You’ve got to wonder why.
The "We’re All Going to Die" Moment
Politics is often a game of soundbites. For Ernst, a specific moment in May 2025 became a massive anchor on her popularity. During a town hall in north-central Iowa, she was confronted by a constituent worried about Medicaid cuts in the "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act. Her response? "Well, we all are going to die."
It went viral. Fast.
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The quote wasn't just a meme; it was a political liability. The June PPP poll found that 69% of Iowa voters had heard the comment. Among those who heard it, a staggering 37% said it made them less likely to vote for her. Her specific approval rating on the issue of Medicaid plummeted to just 28%. When a politician's personal brand is built on being a "fighter for Iowans," a comment that sounds dismissive of healthcare concerns can be a death blow to approval ratings.
But then, everything changed.
On September 2, 2025, Joni Ernst announced she would not seek reelection in 2026. This move effectively shifted her from "struggling incumbent" to "lame duck," often a period where approval ratings stabilize because the partisan attacks move to the next person in line.
A History of Defying the Pollsters
If you only looked at the joni ernst approval rating on paper, you’d have expected her to lose years ago. She has a weird habit of being underestimated.
Take 2014. She was a state senator running against Bruce Braley. Early polls had her down by double digits. She won by 8.5 points.
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Then there was 2020. Theresa Greenfield was supposed to be the one to take her down. Polls showed a dead heat, or even a slight Greenfield lead, right up until the end. Ernst walked away with a 6.6-point victory.
The reality of Iowa polling is that it often underestimates Republican strength. Experts like those at Sabato’s Crystal Ball eventually moved the 2026 race from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" before her retirement announcement, citing her personal polling weakness. However, they also noted that Donald Trump carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024. The state has a deep-red floor that usually catches GOP candidates even when their individual numbers are sagging.
Why the Numbers Diverged
Approval isn't just one big bucket. It's split by demographics and geography.
- The Base: Even when her overall numbers hit the 30s, her support among Trump voters remained relatively stable at 68%. Tepid, maybe, but not a total collapse.
- The Middle: Independents are where the damage happened. In late 2025, 53% of Iowans characterized her as a "partisan voice for Donald Trump" rather than an "independent voice for Iowa."
- The Leadership Narrative: Only 35% of voters in 2025 called her a "strong leader," while 47% labeled her as "weak."
The Legacy of the Squeal
Ernst was the first woman elected to represent Iowa in either house of Congress. That’s a huge deal. Her approval ratings in her first term were often quite high, fueled by her military background and her image as a farm-raised outsider.
As she moved into Senate leadership, becoming the fourth-ranking Republican as Chair of the Senate Republican Policy Committee, her profile changed. She became a national figure. For some Iowans, that felt like she was moving away from the "boots on the ground" persona that got her elected.
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By the time January 2026 rolled around, the conversation shifted entirely. With Ernst retiring, the focus is now on the candidates vying for her seat, such as Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrats like Zach Wahls.
What This Means for You
If you’re tracking political trends in the Midwest, Joni Ernst’s trajectory is a textbook case of how national policy—specifically healthcare and ties to a presidential figure—can erode a seemingly "safe" seat.
- Watch the gaffes. They matter more than the policy papers. The "we're all going to die" comment did more damage than years of legislative voting.
- Polling isn't destiny. In Iowa, a -13 net favorability for a Republican doesn't always mean a win for a Democrat; it often just means a more expensive race.
- Retirement changes the math. Once she stepped back, the "approval" metric became almost purely historical.
The most important takeaway? If you’re looking at an approval rating, always ask who is being polled and what happened the week before. Numbers are just a snapshot of a moment, and in Joni Ernst's case, those snapshots were often a lot noisier than the final results at the ballot box.
To get a true sense of where Iowa stands now, keep a close eye on the 2026 gubernatorial polling between Randy Feenstra and Rob Sand. That race is currently the best "thermometer" for the state's political climate since it's the first major cycle without Ernst on the ticket in over a decade. Check the latest Cook Political Report or Sabato's Crystal Ball updates to see if the "Likely R" status holds as the primary season approaches in June.