You know that feeling when you're on the clock in the second round and Jonathan Taylor is staring you in the face? It’s a mix of pure adrenaline and mild nausea. We’ve all been there. You remember the 2021 season—that glorious stretch where he was basically a cheat code, putting up 1,811 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. He was the undisputed king of fantasy football.
But then things got... complicated.
Injuries, coaching changes, and a rotating door at quarterback turned Taylor from a "set it and forget it" superstar into one of the most debated players in the league. Honestly, looking at Jonathan Taylor fantasy football value in 2026 feels like trying to solve a Rubik's Cube in the dark. The talent is clearly still there, but the situation in Indianapolis has changed so much since his peak.
The Reality of the "Injury Prone" Label
Is Jonathan Taylor actually fragile, or has he just had a terrible run of luck? If you look at the data, the high ankle sprain is the ghost that won't stop haunting him. He dealt with it in 2022, had surgery, missed the start of 2023, and then got dinged again in October 2024.
It’s frustrating.
When he’s on the field, though, the volume is undeniable. In 2024, Taylor actually finished sixth in total touches despite missing three games. That is a massive workload. Most teams are moving toward "running back by committee" (RBBC) because they’re terrified of wearing their guys out. The Colts? They seem perfectly happy to ride Taylor until the wheels come off.
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Last season, his snap rate was nearly 89%. That is unheard of for a modern back with his medical file. It shows the coaching staff trusts him implicitly, but it also means his injury risk remains sky-high. You’re essentially betting on his ligaments as much as his vision.
The Anthony Richardson Factor
We have to talk about the quarterback situation. It’s the elephant in the room.
When Anthony Richardson is under center, Taylor’s fantasy ceiling looks a lot different. Richardson is a physical freak who loves to tuck the ball and run near the goal line. That sucks for Taylor managers. In 2024, when Joe Flacco or Daniel Jones played, Taylor’s red zone rush share was way higher. Richardson "vultures" touchdowns. It’s just what he does.
But there’s a flip side.
A rushing threat like Richardson keeps linebackers honest. They can't just crash the line because Richardson will burn them on a keeper. This should create wider lanes for Taylor. Curiously, the stats show he actually averages about the same 4.5 yards per carry regardless of who is playing quarterback. The real difference is in the passing game.
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Taylor’s targets have plummeted since his 40-catch season in 2021.
- 2021: 40 catches
- 2022: 28 catches
- 2023: 19 catches
- 2024: 18 catches
Basically, if the Colts aren't checking it down, Taylor's floor in PPR leagues is much lower than guys like Christian McCaffrey or Bijan Robinson. If you're drafting him, you are banking on 1,200+ rushing yards and double-digit scores to carry the weight.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Colts O-Line
People still talk about the Colts offensive line like it's the 2020 version with a prime Anthony Castonzo. It’s not.
Don’t get me wrong, Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann are a brick wall on the left side. They are elite. But the right side has been a bit of a revolving door lately. In 2025, the unit was ranked anywhere from 14th to 22nd depending on who you asked. They aren't "bad," but they aren't the dominant force that can make any running back look like a Pro Bowler anymore.
Taylor is doing more of the heavy lifting himself these days.
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Last year, he had three runs of 55+ yards. That was second in the NFL only to Saquon Barkley. This tells us two things: Taylor still has that "home run" speed, and he's becoming more of a big-play-dependent back rather than a "four-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust" grinder.
Strategy: Where Should You Actually Draft Him?
Right now, Taylor’s Average Draft Position (ADP) is hovering around the late second round. He's usually the RB8 or RB9 off the board.
Is that fair?
Probably. You’re getting a guy who can win you a week single-handedly—just look at his Week 10 performance against Atlanta in 2025 where he dropped 244 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those are "league-winner" numbers. But you’re also getting a guy who might disappear for a month if his ankle tweaks.
If you take Taylor, you almost have to grab a high-floor "boring" RB in the next round. You can't pair Taylor with another high-risk guy like Kyren Williams or an aging veteran. You need balance.
Actionable Insights for Your Draft
- PPR vs. Standard: In standard non-PPR leagues, Taylor is a top-5 asset. In full PPR, he’s more like a mid-tier RB1 because he just doesn't catch enough balls anymore.
- The "Handcuff" Rule: If you draft Taylor, do not leave your draft without his backup. Whether it's D.J. Giddens or a veteran like Khalil Herbert, you need that insurance policy. The Colts' offense is designed to funnel touches to one guy; make sure you own that volume regardless of who is healthy.
- Watch the QB Battle: If Daniel Jones starts over a healthy Richardson, Taylor’s catch total will likely go up. Jones loves a dump-off. If Richardson is the guy, expect more rushing variance but perhaps fewer total goal-line looks.
- Schedule Check: Look at the Colts' fantasy playoff schedule. Taylor traditionally performs better in cold weather and late-season "grind" games when the Colts lean on the run.
Taylor isn't a "safe" pick, but he's a "ceiling" pick. If you want to play it safe, draft a wide receiver. If you want to chase a trophy, Taylor is your man. He still has the best vision in the league, and as long as that ankle holds up, he's a threat to finish as the RB1 overall any given year.
To get the most out of Taylor this season, you should prioritize building a "Zero-RB" style bench behind him. Since he occupies such a high percentage of the team's touches, his absence creates a massive vacuum. Stashing high-upside backups from other teams will allow you to pivot quickly if Taylor misses time, ensuring your roster doesn't collapse if the injury bug bites the Indianapolis backfield again.