He was the "draft darling" that nobody saw coming until everyone did. If you followed the 2023 lead-up, you remember how Jonathan Mingo went from a solid SEC starter to a guy whose name was being whispered in the same breath as D.K. Metcalf.
The Carolina Panthers ultimately bit. Hard. They took him 39th overall, hoping he’d be the physical X-receiver to grow alongside Bryce Young. Looking back, that draft slot feels like a lifetime ago. Honestly, the Jonathan Mingo NFL draft story is a masterclass in how "traits" can sometimes blind even the best scouts to the actual production on the field.
The Workout That Changed Everything
Mingo didn't just walk into the NFL Combine; he tore it down. At 6'2" and 220 pounds, he was built like a middle linebacker but moved like a track star. He clocked a 4.46-second 40-yard dash. That’s fast for anyone, but for a guy with his mass? It’s terrifying.
His 39.5-inch vertical and 10'9" broad jump put him in the elite of the elite. We’re talking about a 9.97 Relative Athletic Score (RAS). Out of nearly 3,000 wide receivers tested since 1987, he ranked 9th. Ever. When you see numbers like that, you start to ignore the fact that he never actually had a 1,000-yard season in college.
Scouts saw the frame and the "alpha" playstyle. They saw a guy who could bench press 22 reps and bully cornerbacks at the line of scrimmage. The Panthers' staff, specifically then-head coach Frank Reich and WR coach Shawn Jefferson, fell in love with the person too. He was "mature," a "fast processor," and a "self-starter." On paper, he was the perfect prospect.
The Ole Miss Context: Production vs. Potential
One thing people often get wrong about Mingo's college career is that he was "buried" on the depth chart. That’s only half true. Yes, he played with Elijah Moore, but he also struggled with a broken foot in 2021 that sidelined him for seven games.
When he finally got healthy in 2022, he was... good. Not legendary, just good. He caught 51 passes for 861 yards and 5 touchdowns.
The highlight of that season was a massive 247-yard explosion against Vanderbilt. He broke the school record for single-game receiving yards, surpassing the marks set by guys like A.J. Brown and Metcalf. But that one game accounted for nearly 30% of his entire season's production.
If you take out the Vandy game, his senior year looks a lot more pedestrian. That was the red flag. He was a "splash play" receiver who struggled to create consistent separation on a snap-to-snap basis. In the SEC, you can out-muscle people. In the NFL, everyone is a freak athlete.
Why the Panthers Reached at Pick 39
The Panthers were in a corner. They had just traded away D.J. Moore to get the #1 overall pick. They needed a big-bodied receiver to help Bryce Young.
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The draft board at 39 was a bit of a crossroads. Other receivers like Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, and Tank Dell were still available. But those guys were smaller. Carolina wanted the "Power Forward" archetype. They saw Mingo as a guy who could play the "big slot" role—a position Frank Reich used effectively with players like Michael Pittman Jr. in Indianapolis.
There’s also the Shawn Jefferson connection. Jefferson’s son, Van Jefferson, played at Ole Miss. The coaching staff felt they had a direct line into who Mingo was as a worker. They bet on the character and the Combine numbers over the refined route-running of a guy like Josh Downs.
The Fallout and the Trade to Dallas
Fast forward to late 2024. The Mingo era in Carolina ended not with a bang, but with a mid-season trade to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2025 fourth-round pick.
It’s rare to see a second-round pick traded after just a year and a half, but the numbers were grim. Mingo struggled to find the end zone—literally. He finished his Panthers tenure with zero touchdowns.
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- Rookie Season (2023): 43 catches, 418 yards, 0 TDs.
- 2024 (with Carolina): 12 catches, 121 yards, 0 TDs.
The biggest issue wasn't the effort; it was the "fit." He looked lost in the route tree. He couldn't get off press coverage as easily as he did in college, and his hands, which were a concern in his scouting reports, proved to be inconsistent. When the Panthers changed coaching staffs and brought in Dave Canales, Mingo didn't fit the new "separation" based offense.
The Cowboys took a flyer on him because they had a third-round grade on him during the draft. They’re basically hoping a change of scenery can unlock that 9.97 RAS.
Lessons from the Mingo Evaluation
The Jonathan Mingo NFL draft saga is a reminder that the Combine isn't the game. Being a "weight room warrior" is great, but the ability to "sink your hips" and create space at the top of a route is what keeps you in the league.
Mingo's lack of a "breakout age" (he didn't produce until his fourth year) and his low "dominator rating" in college were signs that the analytics community warned about.
If you're a draft enthusiast, the Mingo story tells you to watch the feet, not just the 40 time. He had a simple route tree at Ole Miss—mostly hitches, goes, and crosses. When he was asked to run a full NFL tree, the processing speed couldn't match the physical speed.
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How to Scout "Traits" Prospects Moving Forward
If you're looking at future draft classes and see a guy like Mingo—big, fast, but low production—here is how you should evaluate them to avoid the "bust" label:
- Check the Separation Metrics: Look at how much space they actually create on film. If every catch is a "contested catch," they’re going to struggle in the pros.
- Examine the Route Tree: Did they run more than three types of routes? If they only ran screens and go-routes, the learning curve will be massive.
- Production vs. Teammates: Was he the #1 option? Mingo was often the #2 or #3 option behind guys like Malik Heath or Dontario Drummond.
- Injury History: Sometimes the lack of production is just bad luck. In Mingo's case, the 2021 foot injury was a real factor, but even when healthy, the consistency wasn't there.
The Mingo trade to Dallas gives him a second chance, but for Carolina, pick 39 will always be a "what if" moment in a draft where they desperately needed to hit a home run for their young quarterback.
To better understand how these physical traits translate to the field, start by comparing Mingo's 2022 Ole Miss film against his 2023 rookie highlights; look specifically at his footwork at the line of scrimmage versus NFL press coverage.