If you still think of Wiley as that old-school textbook company your dad used in college, you’re missing the entire story. Honestly, the market seems to be making the same mistake. While everyone is chasing the next flashy AI penny stock, this 200-year-old giant has quietly turned itself into a data powerhouse that’s basically feeding the very algorithms we’re all obsessed with.
John Wiley & Sons stock (NYSE: WLY) is currently a tale of two very different businesses. On one hand, you’ve got the legacy learning segment that’s feeling the pinch of a changing education landscape. On the other, there’s a high-margin research engine that is literally licensing its archives to tech giants to train Large Language Models (LLMs). It’s a weird, transitional spot to be in. But for investors who can look past a messy quarterly report, the math starts to look pretty interesting.
The AI Revenue Nobody Saw Coming
Most people don't realize that AI models are only as good as the data they eat. Generic web-scraped text is fine for a chatbot to tell you a joke, but it’s useless for drug discovery or high-level physics. That’s where Wiley comes in. They own the "good stuff"—peer-reviewed, authoritative scientific research.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Wiley realized $6 million from an AI content licensing project. That brings their year-to-date total to $35 million. Think about that for a second. This is essentially found money. They already own the content; they’re just selling a "digital key" to it. CEO Matt Kissner has been pretty blunt about this: the company is a "clear beneficiary" of AI development. It’s not just a buzzword here; it’s actual cash hitting the ledger.
The company has even appointed a Chief AI and Data Services Officer, Armughan Rafat, to squeeze more juice out of this orange. They aren't just selling books anymore. They're selling "knowledge feeds."
Why the Stock Price Looks Like a Bargain (Or a Trap)
Right now, the stock is trading around $31. Some analysts, like those over at Simply Wall St, have tossed around a fair value estimate of $60. That’s a massive gap. So, why isn’t the price moving up?
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Well, the "Learning" segment is the anchor. In the latest quarter, revenue in that area dropped 11%. Print books are dying a slow death, and corporate spending on professional training has been soft. It’s the classic "old business vs. new business" struggle. The market hates uncertainty, and watching a core segment shrink is enough to make any algorithmic trader hit the sell button.
But here's the nuance most people miss: Wiley is aggressively pruning the garden. They’ve finished most of their major divestitures, like selling off Wiley Edge. They are becoming leaner. The adjusted operating margin actually expanded to 18.8% recently, even with the revenue misses. They are getting better at making money with less.
The Dividend King Factor
If you like getting paid to wait, Wiley is kind of a legend. They’ve raised their dividend for 32 consecutive years.
- Current Yield: Roughly 4.5% to 4.8% depending on the daily swing.
- Annualized Payout: $1.42 per share.
- Payout Ratio: Around 75%, which is high but manageable given their cash flow.
They aren't just giving money back via dividends, either. Management recently boosted their share repurchase allocation for fiscal 2026 to $100 million. They clearly think the stock is cheap. When a company with a 200-year history starts aggressively buying back its own shares while the yield is near 5%, it's usually a signal that they see a floor the market hasn't recognized yet.
The Open Access Shift: Risk or Reward?
The biggest structural shift in academic publishing is the move to "Open Access" (OA). Instead of libraries paying for subscriptions, authors (or their institutions) pay to publish.
Critics argue this "enshittification" of publishing prioritizes volume over quality. Maybe. But for John Wiley & Sons stock, the volume is definitely there. Article submissions were up 28% in the last quarter. That is a massive pipeline. Wiley is moving toward "Transformative Agreements" where entire countries—like India and Brazil—sign huge, recurring revenue deals.
It’s a move from a "unit-sold" model to a "SaaS-like" recurring model. About half of their revenue is now recurring. That’s the kind of stability that should, in theory, command a higher price-to-earnings multiple than a traditional publisher.
What to Watch in 2026
The road ahead isn't all sunshine. The debt-to-equity ratio sits around 1.16 to 1.3, which isn't terrifying but means they have to keep an eye on interest rates. If the Learning segment doesn't stabilize in the second half of 2026 as management predicts, the stock could stay stuck in this $30–$40 range for a long time.
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Keep an eye on the $200 million free cash flow target for the full year. That’s the "north star" for this management team. If they hit that, they have plenty of ammo to keep the dividend streak alive and continue the buybacks.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at John Wiley & Sons stock, don't treat it like a high-growth tech play. It's a "total return" story.
- Check the Learning Segment: In the next earnings report (expected March 2026), look specifically at whether the decline in the Learning segment is "moderating" as promised. If it drops double digits again, the transition is taking longer than expected.
- Monitor AI Licensing: Is the AI revenue recurring or one-off? The company is trying to move toward "knowledge feeds," which would be much more valuable to the stock's valuation than one-time licensing checks.
- The $40 Resistance: The stock has struggled to break and hold $40. A clean break above that with volume would suggest the market is finally pricing in the margin expansion.
- Income Strategy: For income investors, the current 4.5%+ yield is historically high for Wiley. Using a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) here could be a powerful way to build a position while the market remains skeptical of the turnaround.
The reality is that Wiley is no longer just a "book" company. It’s a specialized data provider for the AI era, disguised as a sleepy academic publisher. Whether the market catches on in 2026 or 2027 is the only real question.
Next Steps: Review the upcoming March 2026 earnings preview to see if analysts have adjusted the $0.86 EPS consensus, as this will be the first real test of the Learning segment's recovery.