Washington loves a deadline. Usually, they "kick the can," a phrase that has become as much a part of the D.C. lexicon as "regular order" or "cloture." But in the autumn of 2025, the can finally hit a brick wall. Senate Majority Leader John Thune found himself at the epicenter of a 43-day federal closure that pushed the American political system to a breaking point we haven't seen in decades. It wasn't just another funding spat; it was a fundamental clash over the future of the American safety net and the power of a new administration.
People often ask if these shutdowns are just theater. Honestly? This one felt like a survival movie. For 43 days, from October 1 until mid-November, the gears of government ground to a halt. National parks closed their gates. Furloughed workers started checking their bank balances with increasing dread. At the heart of it was John Thune, the South Dakotan Republican who had recently taken the gavel, trying to navigate a narrow majority and a high-stakes standoff with Senate Democrats.
The Collision Course: What Really Happened
The math was always the problem. You've got a Republican-led House and a razor-thin Republican majority in the Senate. To pass a funding bill, Thune needed 60 votes to clear the filibuster. He didn't have them. On the other side, Chuck Schumer and the Democrats were digging in their heels over healthcare subsidies. Specifically, they wanted to extend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits that were set to expire.
Thune called it a "ransom." He argued that Democrats were holding the entire federal government hostage for $1.5 trillion in new spending. In his view, a "clean" continuing resolution—basically just keeping the lights on at current levels—was the only responsible path. "We’re not conducting negotiations in a hostage situation," Thune told reporters on day 16 of the shutdown. It was a classic D.C. stalemate, but with much higher stakes because of the "reduction in force" (RIF) memos circulating from the Office of Management and Budget.
Why This Shutdown Was Different
Most shutdowns are short. A weekend, maybe a week. This one lasted over a month. By day 30, the "Schumer Shutdown" (as Thune called it) or the "Thune Shutdown" (as the media often labeled it) was no longer a headline—it was a crisis.
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- Troop Pay at Risk: For the first time in years, there was a very real threat that active-duty military members would miss paychecks. Thune repeatedly used this as a cudgel, pointing out that while the House had passed a bill to pay the troops, Senate Democrats were blocking it.
- The RIF Factor: Russ Vought at the OMB wasn't playing around. He issued guidance that suggested agencies should consider permanent layoffs—not just temporary furloughs—for programs that weren't "consistent with the President’s priorities." This terrified the federal workforce.
- The ACA Cliff: Millions of Americans were looking at their health insurance premiums doubling in 2026 if the subsidies weren't extended. This gave Democrats their leverage.
It was a game of chicken where both drivers thought the other would swerve first. Thune kept insisting that "cooler heads" would prevail, but for six weeks, the heat only went up.
The Breaking Point and the January 30 Deadline
Eventually, the pressure from the states became too much. Governors from both parties were screaming about the loss of SNAP benefits and the halt of infrastructure projects. A small group of "reasonable" Democrats—folks like John Fetterman and Catherine Cortez Masto—started signaling they were willing to break ranks.
The deal that eventually ended the 43-day nightmare was a classic "minibus" compromise. Thune managed to get three full-year appropriations bills signed into law: Agriculture, Military Construction-VA, and the Legislative Branch. Everything else was funded through a temporary patch that expires on January 30, 2026.
We are currently in that "breathing room" period. But it's thin.
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Thune is now pushing hard for "regular order." He wants the Senate to stop doing these massive, 2,000-page "omnibus" bills that nobody reads and instead pass 12 individual spending bills. It’s an old-school approach. Kinda refreshing, if it actually works. He’s already moved a second package through the Senate this January, covering Justice, Energy, and Interior.
The Lingering Impact on Thune’s Leadership
This whole saga has defined John Thune's early tenure as Majority Leader. He proved he wouldn't fold under pressure, but he also learned that a 43-day shutdown carries a massive political cost. Republicans are currently trying to frame the 2025 shutdown as a "Democrat-led" disaster heading into the 2026 midterms.
But the reality is more nuanced. The public generally blames whoever is in charge during a shutdown, regardless of who "started" it. Thune knows this. His current strategy is to show that Republicans can govern by moving these individual bills steadily. He’s trying to avoid another "Halloween-style" disaster where the government opens and closes like a flickering lightbulb.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Funding Fight
A lot of people think a shutdown means everything stops. It doesn't. Social Security checks still go out because they are "mandatory" spending. The post office keeps running because it's self-funded. The real pain is felt in the "discretionary" side:
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- Small business loans (SBA) stop being processed.
- National parks turn into trash heaps or close entirely.
- Food inspections and environmental monitoring slow to a crawl.
- Federal contractors—thousands of small businesses—don't get paid and often can't recover that lost revenue.
When Thune talks about the "cost of the shutdown," he’s usually talking about the $1.5 trillion in spending demands, but the economic cost of the 43-day gap was billions in lost productivity.
Actionable Insights: Preparing for the Next Deadline
With the January 30, 2026, deadline approaching, another John Thune government shutdown isn't off the table. The "truce" is fragile. Here is what you should keep in mind as the next deadline nears:
- Watch the "Minibuses": If Thune can keep passing small groups of 2-3 bills (like the Commerce-Justice-Science package), the risk of a total shutdown drops. It's the "all or nothing" bills that cause the most trouble.
- Monitor the DHS Bill: This is the "poison pill" of 2026. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security is currently the most contentious issue because of border policy. If a shutdown happens on January 30, it will almost certainly start here.
- Federal Employee Strategy: If you are a federal worker, the 2019 Fair Treatment Act guarantees back pay, but it doesn't help with bills due during the shutdown. The 2025 event showed that many credit unions and banks offer "shutdown loans," so it’s worth checking your eligibility now.
- Healthcare Subsidy Deadlines: If you are on an ACA plan, keep a close eye on the February enrollment notices. The political fight over these subsidies is still the underlying "why" behind the budget theater.
John Thune wants to go down in history as the leader who brought "regular order" back to the Senate. To do that, he has to prove that the 43-day shutdown of 2025 was an anomaly, not the new normal. Whether he can keep the gears of government turning through the rest of 2026 will be the ultimate test of his leadership.
The path forward requires a level of bipartisan cooperation that has been in short supply lately. But as Thune often says, there’s always an off-ramp—you just have to be willing to take it before you hit the wall. Focus on the individual appropriations progress over the next two weeks; that’s the real barometer of whether we're headed for another cliff or a smooth landing.
Source References:
- U.S. Senate Press Gallery, "Majority Leader Thune Remarks on Appropriations," January 2026.
- Holland & Knight, "Senate Advances Funding Bill to End Record Shutdown," November 2025.
- NCSL, "Federal Government Shutdown: Impact on States," updated January 2026.
- Associated Press, "Thune rejects Democratic demands on health care," September 2025.