Wall Street has a short memory, but people still talk about John Paulson like he’s some kind of wizard. You know the story. He’s the guy who basically manifested the 2008 subprime mortgage collapse into a personal bank account, netting billions while the rest of the world was looking for the exit. But lately, the chatter isn't about housing. It’s about the John Paulson Google investment—or, more accurately, his firm’s tactical dance with Alphabet Inc.
Honestly, it’s a weird move if you look at his history. Paulson is a "merger arbitrage" and "distressed debt" guy. He likes things that are broken, messy, or about to be bought. Google? Google is a titan. It’s the furthest thing from a distressed asset. So why did he suddenly decide to start picking up shares of the search giant in 2025?
The Surprise Q2 Entry
In the second quarter of 2025, Paulson & Co. did something that caught a lot of 13F-filing junkies off guard. After years of focusing almost exclusively on gold miners and pharmaceutical plays like Madrigal Pharmaceuticals ($MDGL) and Bausch Health ($BHC), Paulson opened a new position in Alphabet.
It wasn't a massive, "bet the farm" kind of move. We’re talking about roughly 9,000 shares of Class C stock ($GOOG).
Now, for a billionaire, 9,000 shares is pocket change. It’s barely a blip on a portfolio worth nearly $3 billion. But in the world of high-finance signaling, it was a "hmmm" moment. Why now? Why Alphabet? You've gotta remember that 2024 and early 2025 were rough for Google. They were getting hammered by antitrust lawsuits. The Department of Justice was breathing down their neck about Chrome and their advertising dominance. To a guy like Paulson, that smells like "event-driven" opportunity.
Is Alphabet a "Distressed" Tech Play?
Most people see Google as a safe bet. Paulson sees it as a mispriced asset under regulatory fire. This is where his "expert" lens differs from your average retail trader.
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When the news hit that the DOJ was considering a breakup of Google’s business, the stock took some hits. Sentiment shifted. Analysts started worrying about "AI search" killing the golden goose. Paulson, ever the contrarian, likely saw this as a classic overreaction.
- Regulatory Overhang: He’s spent decades betting on how courts and regulators affect stock prices.
- The AI Pivot: While the public was scared of ChatGPT, the "smart money" (including folks like Bill Ackman and Bridgewater) started loading up on Alphabet when it was trading at a compressed price-to-earnings ratio.
- Valuation: At several points in late 2024, Alphabet was actually the "cheapest" of the Mag 7 stocks.
By the time Paulson entered in mid-2025, the stock was already starting to rebound. He wasn't the first to the party—Bridgewater had already boosted their stake by over 80%—but his entry signaled that the risk-reward profile for Google had shifted from "risky tech" to "value play."
The "Exit" That Wasn't Really an Exit
Here is where it gets kind of confusing for people tracking the John Paulson Google investment. If you look at the Q3 2025 filings, some platforms reported that he "exited" the position.
Wait, what? He bought in Q2 and left in Q3?
Not exactly. High-frequency changes in these portfolios often reflect tactical shuffling rather than a loss of faith. Paulson is known for being incredibly clinical. If he hits a price target or sees a better "event" elsewhere—like his massive $800 million bet on an Alaskan gold mine or his increased stake in Bausch Health—he’ll move the capital.
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His current portfolio is incredibly concentrated. As of late 2025, his top ten holdings represent about 95% of his total assets. When you run a ship that tight, a small 9,000-share position in Alphabet is often just a placeholder or a short-term trade on a specific news cycle. It’s not a "buy and hold for 20 years" Warren Buffett move.
Why This Matters to You
You’re probably wondering if you should follow him into (or out of) big tech.
The reality is that Paulson isn't playing the same game as us. He’s looking for "asymmetric returns." He wants to risk $1 to make $10. With Google, the upside is capped by its massive size, but the downside was limited by its incredible cash flow.
If you're looking at the John Paulson Google investment as a roadmap, the lesson isn't "buy Google." The lesson is "buy quality when everyone else is freaking out about headlines."
Breaking Down the Portfolio Strategy
To understand why Google fits (or doesn't fit) in Paulson's world, you have to look at what else he’s holding. It’s a wild mix.
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- The Gold Obsession: He’s still huge on gold. Perpetua Resources ($PPTA) and Novagold ($NG) are massive chunks of his wealth. He thinks the dollar is going to get devalued by central bank printing.
- The Pharma Gamble: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is his biggest bet. This is a classic Paulson move: a company with a specific catalyst (FDA approval for NASH treatment).
- The Tech "Sliver": Alphabet and Juniper Networks were his recent tech forays. Juniper was a merger play (HPE acquisition), which is Paulson’s bread and butter.
Actionable Insights for Investors
So, what do we actually do with this info?
First, stop treating 13F filings like real-time advice. By the time you read that Paulson bought Google, he might have already sold it three weeks ago. These filings are a "look back," not a "look forward."
Second, notice the valuation gap. Paulson enters stocks when they are unloved. If you want to invest like him, you don't buy Google when it’s at an all-time high and everyone is cheering. You buy it when the headlines say "Google is over" or "The DOJ is breaking them up."
Third, diversification is for people who want to stay rich; concentration is for people who want to get rich. Paulson’s 10-stock portfolio is terrifyingly risky for a normal person. Don't copy his concentration unless you have his billions (and his stomach for volatility).
If you're tracking the John Paulson Google investment, keep an eye on the next round of filings. If he scales back into Alphabet, it usually means he sees a specific legal or corporate "event" on the horizon. If he stays out, it means he’s found a better place to park his cash where the "arbitrage" is juicier.
Essentially, Paulson treated Google like a trade, not a marriage. And in 2026, with the market as volatile as it is, maybe that's the smartest way to look at big tech.
To stay ahead of these moves, your next steps should be monitoring the quarterly 13F filings directly via the SEC’s EDGAR database rather than relying on secondary news sites. Pay close attention to the "change in shares" column; a small decrease might just be profit-taking, but a 100% exit usually signals that the "event" Paulson was betting on has concluded. Use tools like WhaleWisdom or Dataroma to compare Paulson’s moves against other "smart money" managers like David Tepper or Seth Klarman to see if there is a broader institutional trend forming around Alphabet.