If you’ve been watching the ticker for Deere & Company (DE) lately, you know it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster. Honestly, it’s enough to make even a seasoned investor a little dizzy. As of mid-January 2026, john deere stock prices are hovering around the $514 mark. That’s a decent recovery from the $460s we saw just a few weeks ago, but we aren't out of the woods quite yet.
The big question everyone is asking at the kitchen table—or the boardroom table—is whether this is a dead-cat bounce or the start of something real. John May, Deere’s CEO, basically called his shot back in November. He told the world that 2026 would likely be the "bottom" of the large agriculture cycle.
That’s a bold claim.
It’s also a risky one. If he’s right, buying now is like catching lightning in a bottle. If he’s wrong, well, there’s a lot of room for those green and yellow shares to slide.
The Reality of the "Trough" Year
Most people look at the revenue and freak out. And yeah, the numbers look kinda rough on paper. For fiscal year 2026, Deere is projecting net income to land between $4.0 billion and $4.75 billion. Compare that to the $5.03 billion they cleared in 2025 or the monster $7.1 billion from 2024.
It feels like a retreat.
But here is the thing: the market usually prices in the bad news way before the actual bottom hits. Analysts like Chris Ciolino from Bloomberg Intelligence have pointed out that while the guidance was "underwhelming," it provided the one thing investors crave: clarity. We finally have a floor.
Why are farmers keeping their wallets shut?
It isn't just one thing. It's a messy cocktail of high interest rates, low commodity prices, and some serious "wait-and-see" energy regarding trade deals.
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- Corn and Soybean prices: They aren't exactly making anyone rich right now.
- Equipment costs: A new X9 combine isn't exactly a budget purchase.
- Tariff shadows: There’s a $1.2 billion pre-tax tariff hit looming over the 2026 books. That’s roughly $300 million a quarter just... gone.
Basically, the big guys—the ones running thousands of acres in Iowa or Illinois—are squeezing every last hour out of their current fleets. They aren't rushing to the dealership. Deere expects large ag sales in the U.S. and Canada to be down another 15% to 20% this year. That is a massive hole to dig out of.
The Secret Bright Spots: Construction and Small Turf
If you only looked at the corn belt, you’d think the company was in a tailspin. But Deere is a big ship. While the "Production and Precision Ag" side is hurting, the Construction & Forestry segment is actually doing some heavy lifting.
Sales there jumped 27% in the final quarter of 2025.
That’s huge. It’s helping offset the bleeding in the farm sector. Plus, the "Small Ag & Turf" side—think the tractors used by landscapers or people with big "hobby" farms—is expected to grow by about 10% in 2026.
It turns out, even if a commercial farmer is stalling on a million-dollar purchase, the guy with five acres and a dream still wants his zero-turn mower.
Precision Ag: The Long-Term Play
You can't talk about john deere stock prices without talking about tech. Deere isn't just a "tractor company" anymore; they are basically a software company that sells steel.
For the 2026 model year, they’ve rolled out stuff that sounds like science fiction.
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- See & Spray Select: AI-powered cameras that detect weeds in real-time. It only sprays the weed, not the crop. This can cut chemical use by up to 90%.
- Predictive Ground Speed Automation: The combine literally "sees" the crop ahead and adjusts its speed before it even hits the stalks.
- Satellite Connectivity: They’re putting JD Link Boost modules in machines to make sure farmers stay connected even in the "dead zones" of rural Montana.
Why does this matter for the stock? Because this tech moves Deere away from one-time sales and toward subscription revenue. If a farmer pays a yearly fee for autonomy or data analytics, that’s "sticky" money. It makes the stock less of a slave to the boom-and-bust cycle of corn prices.
What the Analysts Are Saying (And What They’re Missing)
Wall Street is split. On one hand, you have the "show me" crowd. They see the $1.2 billion tariff burden and the 15% interest rates in Brazil as a bridge too far. They think the stock is stuck in neutral.
On the other hand, firms like Jefferies and Barchart are looking at the "price-cost" realization. Deere has been aggressive about raising prices to cover those tariffs. If they can make the pricing stick, the margins might actually surprise people by the second half of 2026.
"2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle." — John May, CEO
That quote is basically the North Star for DE investors right now. If he's right, the recovery in 2027 could be explosive.
The "Caterpillar" Comparison
A lot of people like to compare DE to CAT. It’s natural. But they’re different beasts. Caterpillar has been riding a massive wave of energy and infrastructure spending. Their 17.3% operating margin is currently beating Deere’s 12.6%.
Deere is more exposed to the raw, cyclical nature of the earth. When the dirt is profitable, Deere wins. When the dirt is expensive to work, Deere feels it.
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Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
So, what do you actually do with this?
First, stop looking at the daily swings. John deere stock prices in early 2026 are for the long-term players. If you're trying to day-trade this, the volatility from trade news or USDA crop reports will eat you alive.
Watch the Q2 Earnings: This will be the real test. Q1 is usually lean for Deere. Q2 is when the spring planting orders actually show up on the balance sheet. If the margins hold above 14% in the second quarter, the "bottom" theory is likely correct.
The Dividend Factor: Don't forget that Deere is still a cash cow. Even in a "down" year, they’re projecting $4 billion to $5 billion in operating cash flow. They’ve been consistent with dividends and share buybacks. It's a "sleep at night" stock for people who believe people will always need to eat.
Monitor the Trade Framework: Keep a close eye on the CUSMA (Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement) reviews starting in July 2026. Any progress there—or a softening of the trade war with China—could be a massive tailwind for the stock that isn't currently priced in.
If you’re looking for a entry point, the $480-$500 range has shown some solid support. But honestly, the real value here is in the "precision" pivot. If Deere successfully transitions into an AI-first equipment company over the next two years, the current price might look like a bargain by the time 2028 rolls around.
The cycle is turning. It’s just turning slowly. Be patient.