If you’ve spent any time looking at a Joe Ryan game log lately, you probably noticed something weird. It’s not just the strikeouts, though those are pretty gaudy. It’s the way he gets them. In an era where every pitcher is trying to throw 100 mph with a slider that breaks three feet, Ryan is basically out there playing a different sport. He’s the guy who throws a "dead zone" fastball that somehow nobody can hit.
Most people look at the box score and see a decent ERA and a win-loss record that doesn't always tell the whole story. But if you actually dig into the starts, you see a pitcher who is constantly tinkering. Honestly, the 2025 season was a massive turning point for him. He finished with a 3.42 ERA and 194 strikeouts over 171 innings. That's borderline elite territory, yet he still feels like the most underrated starter in the American League.
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Breaking Down the Joe Ryan Game Log from 2025
The start of the 2025 season was a heater. Pure and simple. Between April and early May, Ryan was basically untouchable. He went 5-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his first six starts. You look at those games—specifically the April 13th outing at Yankee Stadium—and you see why the Twins think he’s a front-line guy. He went 7.0 innings, allowed basically nothing, and just carved up one of the best lineups in baseball.
But baseball is a grind. A Joe Ryan game log isn't always a straight line up. He hit a rough patch in June, specifically a disaster start in Atlanta where he gave up five home runs in just three innings. Yeah, five. It tied a club record that nobody wants to hold. It’s those moments that make fans nervous, but look at how he responded. He didn't spiral. He went right back to the mound on June 30th against Seattle and punched out 10 guys in under six innings.
That’s the Joe Ryan experience. It’s high-wire pitching. He lives at the top of the strike zone with a fastball that "only" sits around 93-94 mph, but because of his weird arm angle, hitters swear it's coming in at 100. It’s what the nerds call "Invisiball."
The Mid-Season Shift and Pitch Mix Evolution
By mid-2025, the league started to catch on a bit to the "fastball-only" approach. If you look at his game logs from July onwards, you'll see a spike in his splitter and sweeper usage. He had to change. You can’t survive on one pitch forever, even if it's the highest-rated four-seamer in the league by Run Value.
- April/May: Fastball usage near 60%.
- August/September: More reliance on the 87 mph split-finger to keep hitters off balance.
- The Results: A career-high 12 strikeouts against Oakland and his 500th career K against San Francisco in July.
He also started throwing a sinker more frequently, which was a bit of a shocker. Usually, a guy like Ryan wants everything to go up. Throwing a sinker felt like a "break glass in case of emergency" move to get some easy ground balls when the home run bug started biting again. It sort of worked. His WHIP stayed around 1.04, which is phenomenal.
The Injury Scare and the 2026 Outlook
Now, we have to talk about the elephant in the room. If you were following the Joe Ryan game log at the end of 2025, you know things got dicey. On December 9, the Twins had to shut him down with a Grade 2 strain of the teres major. That’s a shoulder muscle that’s absolutely vital for a pitcher’s decelerating motion.
Rocco Baldelli called it a "punch in the gut." It really was. The Twins were in the middle of a postseason push, and losing their most consistent strike-thrower was a disaster. It’s why he didn't pitch in the final weeks of the season, leaving his total at 31 games (30 starts).
As we head into 2026, the big question isn't just his health, but his contract. There’s some drama brewing. Ryan and the Twins failed to agree on a salary for 2026, heading to an arbitration hearing over a $500,000 gap. He wanted $6.35 million; the team offered $5.85 million. It seems like a small amount for a guy who has provided nearly $100 million in "value" since he debuted, but that’s the business side of the sport.
Why the Red Sox and Mets are Watching
Because of this arbitration friction and the fact that he was pulled from the TwinsFest lineup in January 2026, the trade rumors are flying. Boston has been "pursuing" him for what feels like a decade (in internet time).
If you're a fantasy owner or just a die-hard Twins fan, you're looking at his 2026 projection with a mix of excitement and terror. He's projected to be a 4-WAR pitcher again, but that shoulder strain has to be fully healed. He’s been throwing at the Twins' facility, but missing TwinsFest is a weird look. Some say it's because he just had a baby in November. Others think a trade is imminent.
Practical Insights for Tracking Joe Ryan
If you're actually trying to use a Joe Ryan game log for betting or fantasy, you need to look at more than just the ERA. Look at the "Strikeouts per 9" (K/9). Even when he's struggling, he's usually over 10.0.
- Check the Velocity early: If he’s sitting 91 mph instead of 93.5 mph, he’s in trouble. His margin for error is thin because he doesn't have "easy" velocity.
- Home/Road Splits: He traditionally pitches much better at Target Field. The ball doesn't seem to fly out as much as it does in places like Great American Ball Park or Yankee Stadium.
- The Third Time Through: This is his Achilles' heel. If a manager lets him face a lineup for the third time, his ERA jumps significantly. He's a "two-times-through" monster.
What really happened with Joe Ryan over the last year is a classic case of a pitcher outperforming his raw tools through sheer intelligence and a very unique delivery. He isn't the biggest guy, and he doesn't throw the hardest, but he's a top-20 pitcher when that shoulder is right.
The next step is watching his first Spring Training start in 2026. You’ll want to see if the splitter is still his go-to secondary pitch or if he’s brought back the "sweeper" as a primary weapon. If the velocity is back to his 2025 average of 93.7 mph, the Twins (or whoever trades for him) are getting an All-Star. If it’s lagging, it might be a long road back from that shoulder strain. Keep a close eye on the early March box scores to see if the "Invisiball" still has its late-life rise.
To stay ahead, track his specific pitch-by-pitch data on Baseball Savant during the first three weeks of the season. Pay attention to his vertical approach angle (VAA); if that number stays elite, the strikeouts will follow regardless of the radar gun.