If you’ve spent any time reading the financial news, you know Jim Rickards isn't exactly a ray of sunshine. He’s the guy who predicted the 2008 crash and Trump’s 2016 win when the "experts" were busy laughing. Now that we’re looking back at his roadmap for the past year, it's clear he wasn't just guessing. He was looking at the plumbing of the global financial system.
Honestly, his outlook was grim.
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He called for a "perfect storm." We aren't just talking about a little dip in the S&P 500. Rickards warned of a potential 50% collapse in the U.S. stock market. Why? Because the system is more fragile than a glass house in a hailstorm. He’s been banging the drum on Jim Rickards predictions for 2024 since the end of 2023, and most of it centers on three things: political chaos, the death of the dollar, and a new kind of "Money GPT" threat.
The Election Meltdown and the "Lawfare" Factor
Politics and money are basically married now. You can't separate them. Rickards spent much of the year talking about how the 2024 election wouldn't just be an "ugly" event—it would be an economic wrecking ball. He accurately predicted that Joe Biden would not be the Democratic nominee. He saw the "backroom dealings" coming months before the sudden switch to Kamala Harris.
But the real shocker?
He warned that the establishment would use "lawfare" to try and stop Donald Trump. He wasn't just talking about court dates. He was talking about how these legal battles create massive uncertainty in the markets. Markets hate uncertainty. They thrive on knowing what happens next. When you have an indicted former president and a sitting president dropping out of a race, investors start looking for the exits.
Rickards argued that this political instability could lead to civil unrest or even martial law. That sounds like a Hollywood script, right? But to Rickards, it’s just the logical outcome of a society that has lost faith in its institutions. He’s seen it happen in other countries during his time advising the CIA. America isn't immune.
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Gold, Silver, and the BRICS Settlement
If the dollar is dying, where does the money go? Rickards has a very specific answer: Gold.
He’s been shouting from the rooftops that the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and their new members) are building a system to bypass the U.S. dollar entirely. He calls it "de-dollarization." It’s not just a buzzword. It’s a reality triggered by the U.S. freezing $300 billion in Russian reserves.
"The BRICS currency already exists. It’s called gold."
That’s a direct quote from his recent briefings. He believes central banks are loading up on gold because it’s the only asset with no "counterparty risk." It doesn't belong to a government that can flip a switch and freeze it.
His price targets? They’re eye-popping.
- Gold to $10,000 by 2026.
- Silver to $200.
You might think that's crazy. But he points to the math. If you want to back the global money supply with gold, $2,500 an ounce doesn't cut it. You need a much higher price to make the math work. He calls the current move in gold "the first act." We haven't even seen the main performance yet.
The Money GPT Threat: Why AI Could Crash the Market
This is where things get really weird. Rickards recently released a book called Money GPT. He isn't worried about AI taking your job; he’s worried about AI taking your life savings.
Basically, he thinks we’ve delegated too much of our financial decision-making to algorithms. These models are all trained on the same data. They all "think" the same way. When a crisis hits, every AI bot is going to try to sell at the exact same millisecond.
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That’s a recipe for a "flash crash" that doesn't stop. He compares it to everyone in a crowded theater rushing for the exit at once. The door isn't big enough. In the market, that means "circuit breakers" trip, the exchange shuts down, and your liquidity vanishes. You can have a million dollars on paper, but if you can't sell, you have zero.
Is the Recession Already Here?
While the government keeps tweaking the numbers to make the economy look "okayish," Rickards is convinced we’ve been in a recession for a while. He looks at things like the "inverted yield curve"—where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term ones. Historically, that’s a 100% accurate warning of a recession.
He also points to the "lag effect."
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates faster than at any time in history. It takes about 18 to 24 months for those hikes to actually hit the "real" economy. We are in that window right now. The "higher for longer" policy is starting to break the backs of small businesses and consumers who are drowning in credit card debt.
Rickards thinks the Fed is playing a dangerous game of "hyper-politics." They want to avoid a recession during an election year, so they might cut rates too late. By then, the damage is already done.
Actionable Steps for the "Rickards" Scenario
So, what are you supposed to do if even half of this comes true? He isn't just a doom-and-gloom guy; he has a playbook. It's not about being a "prepper" in the woods; it's about being a "financial prepper."
- Get Physical: Don't just buy "paper gold" (ETFs). Rickards is big on physical coins and bars. If the digital system goes down or banks close, your "paper" gold is just a digital hallucination.
- Dump the Toxic: He’s identified several high-flying tech stocks as "toxic." If we get a 50% market haircut, the "Magnificent Seven" won't be so magnificent.
- Cash is (Temporarily) King: Having a slice of your portfolio in actual cash gives you "optionality." When everything crashes, cash lets you buy the wreckage at pennies on the dollar.
- Harden Your Perimeter: This is the part people usually ignore. He suggests working with security experts to make your home more secure. If the "social unrest" part of his prediction kicks in, you don't want to be the softest target on the block.
The reality is that Jim Rickards predictions for 2024 are a wake-up call. Whether you believe in $10,000 gold or not, the fragility of our system is hard to ignore. We've seen the supply chain breaks. We've seen the inflation. We've seen the political circus.
Rickards isn't necessarily hoping for a crash. He’s just looking at the math and the history. And usually, the math doesn't lie.
What to watch next
If you're following the Rickards thesis, keep a close eye on the BRICS summit announcements and the "unit" currency developments. These geopolitical shifts often move much faster than the mainstream media reports. You should also monitor the Treasury market yields; if they continue to signal a deep inversion, the recession "bounce back" the government is promising might be a long way off.
Position your portfolio for volatility now, rather than waiting for the "all-clear" signal that rarely comes until the bottom is already in.