If you have ever spent a weekend in Jefferson, Texas, you know that the sky here has a bit of a personality disorder. One minute you are sitting on a porch at a bed and breakfast, enjoying a breeze that feels like a gentle hug, and the next, you’re sprinting for cover because a wall of water just fell out of the sky.
Planning around the jefferson texas weather forecast is basically a local sport. It is not just about checking an app; it is about knowing how the humid air from the Gulf of Mexico decides to tangle with the dry winds coming off the plains.
Honestly, it gets complicated.
What is happening right now?
As of mid-January 2026, we are seeing some wild swings. Today, January 14, we’ve got a high of 61°F with some decent sunshine, but don’t let that fool you. By tonight, it is going to bottom out around 31°F. That is a 30-degree drop in about eight hours.
If you are heading out to the Caddo Lake area tomorrow, January 15, expect a crisp, sunny day with a high of 54°F and another freezing night. By the time the weekend hits, we are looking at a bit of a cooling trend on Saturday with a high of 47°F before it bounces back up.
The weird science of East Texas seasons
People think Texas is just hot.
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That is the first mistake. Jefferson is tucked away in the piney woods of East Texas, which means we get a "wet continental" influence that many other parts of the state miss out on.
January is technically our coldest month. You’ll see average highs around 57°F, but the lows hover right near 34°F or 38°F. We don’t get a ton of snow—usually just an inch or so a year—but when we do get it, the whole town basically freezes in time. It's more likely you'll deal with "ice events" rather than a Winter Wonderland.
Wait, what about the rain?
May is actually our wettest month. You are looking at an average of over 4.5 inches of rain then. If you’re coming for a spring boat tour, bring a poncho. Interestingly, the late summer (August and September) tends to be the driest, even though it feels the "heaviest" because of the humidity.
Understanding the Jefferson Texas Weather Forecast Risks
If you are looking at the long-range jefferson texas weather forecast, you have to keep an eye on the "Piney Woods Factor." Because we are surrounded by heavy timber and near big bodies of water like Lake O' the Pines and Caddo Lake, the moisture levels stay high.
This creates a localized microclimate.
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Tornadoes and Severe Storms
We have to talk about the "T" word. Jefferson is in a region often referred to as Dixie Alley. While everyone talks about Tornado Alley in the Midwest, Dixie Alley is where storms can be more dangerous because they often happen at night and are obscured by trees and hills.
Statistically, about 58% of our major storm events involve tornadoes. That sounds scary, but it’s mostly a springtime concern. If you see a forecast mentioning a "dry line" moving in from West Texas, that’s your cue to pay attention. When that dry air hits our humid air, things get spicy.
Flooding: A Real Factor
Jefferson was a river port town. It exists because of the Big Cypress Bayou.
Because of that geography, about 19% of the properties in town have some level of flood risk. When we get those massive 4-inch rainfalls in May or June, the bayou rises fast. The town is protected by several flood risk reduction projects, but if you are staying in a low-lying rental near the water, always check the river stages in the forecast.
Seasonal Cheat Sheet for Travelers
- Spring (March–May): This is the "Goldilocks" zone for temperatures (69°F to 83°F), but it’s also the peak for thunderstorms.
- Summer (June–August): It’s hot. Like, "melt your shoes to the pavement" hot. Highs stay in the 90s, and the humidity makes it feel like 105°F. Plan your outdoor stuff for before 10:00 AM.
- Fall (September–November): October is arguably the best month to visit. The sky is clear about 69% of the time, and the humidity finally breaks.
- Winter (December–February): It’s a gamble. You might get a 75°F day or a 25°F day. Layers are your best friend.
Why do the apps get it wrong?
I’ve noticed that generic weather apps often use data from the Shreveport airport or Longview. While those are close, they don't always capture the specific cooling effect of the forest canopy around Jefferson.
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The wind speeds here are usually lower than the open plains, averaging about 9 to 12 mph, because the trees act as a natural windbreak. However, that also means the heat gets trapped. If the forecast says 95°F, it’s going to feel like 100°F in the shade because there’s no breeze to carry the moisture away from your skin.
Actionable Steps for Your Visit
If you are checking the jefferson texas weather forecast for an upcoming trip, don't just look at the little sun or cloud icon.
First, check the Dew Point. In East Texas, the dew point tells you more than the temperature. If it is over 70, you are going to be sweating the second you walk outside. If it's under 60, it'll be a beautiful day regardless of the heat.
Second, download a radar app like RadarScope or use the National Weather Service (NWS) Shreveport site. Localized "pop-up" storms in the summer won't show up on a 7-day forecast, but they can ruin a boat trip if you aren't watching the cells move in real-time.
Finally, always pack a "transition" kit. Even in the dead of summer, the air conditioning in Jefferson’s historic buildings is usually set to "Arctic Blast." You’ll want a light sweater for the indoors and a moisture-wicking shirt for the outdoors.
Keep an eye on the barometric pressure if you are a fisherman. A falling barometer usually means the fish in Lake O' the Pines are about to go on a feeding frenzy right before a front hits.
To get the most out of your trip, check the river gauges on the Big Cypress Bayou if you plan to be on the water. Sudden upstream releases from the Ferrell’s Bridge Dam can change water levels and currents faster than the local sky conditions might suggest. Reach out to local outfitters for the most accurate "on-the-ground" conditions before you head out.