Honestly, looking at the ticker 9618 in Hong Kong right now feels a bit like watching a masterclass in market psychology. You’ve got this massive, sprawling tech giant that essentially runs the "Amazon of China," yet the stock has been stuck in a weird kind of limbo. People see the "China" label and immediately think of regulatory crackdowns or the slowing economy. But if you actually dig into the numbers for jd com stock hk, the story is way more nuanced than the headlines suggest.
The 2026 Reality: Why Price and Value are Social Distancing
As of mid-January 2026, JD.com is trading around HK$114. That’s a far cry from the highs we saw a few years back. It’s kinda wild when you realize that JD’s quarterly revenue is often higher than its entire market capitalization. Think about that for a second. The market is basically saying the future growth and existing assets of the company are worth less than the cash it brings in over three months.
Why is there such a massive disconnect?
Basically, it’s a "double discount" problem. First, you have the geopolitical tension—the "China risk" that makes Western institutional investors sweat. Second, there’s the domestic price war. For the last couple of years, JD, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo have been in a brutal, margin-crushing fight for the "value-conscious" consumer. Pinduoduo (PDD) really shook things up with their ultra-low prices, forcing JD to spend big on subsidies just to keep their 700 million active users happy.
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But here’s the thing: that "involution" (or neijuan as they call it in China)—the self-defeating competition—is finally starting to cool off. In late 2025, the Chinese government shifted its tone. Instead of just busting monopolies, they started looking at preventing "malicious low-price competition." This is a huge win for JD. They don't want to be the cheapest; they want to be the best.
What the Financials Actually Say
If you look at the Q3 2025 results, the core business is actually doing great. JD Retail saw its operating margin climb to 5.9%. That’s a jump from 5.2% the year before. They are getting more efficient at moving goods. They’ve spent twenty years building a logistics network that owns the "last mile," and that moat is finally paying off in a stable way.
- Net Revenue: RMB 299.1 billion in Q3 2025 (up nearly 15% year-over-year).
- Share Buybacks: This is the big one. In 2025, they bought back US$3.0 billion worth of shares. That’s roughly 6.3% of the entire company.
- Cash Position: They are sitting on over RMB 210 billion in cash and short-term investments.
The "ugly" part of the balance sheet comes from "New Businesses." JD is currently pouring money into food delivery and international expansion. In Q3 2025 alone, the operating margin for these new ventures was -100.9%. Ouch. But that’s a choice. They are using the fat profits from their electronics and home appliance dominance to fund a seat at the table for the next decade’s growth.
The Dividend Secret
A lot of people forget that jd com stock hk isn't just a growth play anymore; it’s turning into a total return story. They paid a US$1.00 dividend per ADS in 2025, which puts the yield at a very respectable 5.4% at current prices. For a tech company that is still growing double digits, that’s almost unheard of. It's essentially a "value stock" trapped in a "tech stock" body.
The 9618 vs. 89618 Confusion
If you're looking at the Hong Kong exchange, you might see two different tickers for JD. Don't let it trip you up.
- 9618.HK is the standard counter traded in Hong Kong Dollars (HKD).
- 89618.HK is the RMB counter.
It’s the same company, same shares. The dual-counter model was introduced to let investors trade in Chinese Yuan directly, which helps with liquidity and reduces currency conversion headaches for mainland investors using the Southbound Stock Connect. Most retail traders stick with 9618.
The Logistics Moat: JD's Secret Weapon
Unlike Alibaba, which mostly acts as a platform for other sellers, JD owns the warehouses. They own the trucks. They own the delivery guys in the red uniforms.
In late 2025, JD Logistics expanded its "JoyExpress" brand into Saudi Arabia. They are taking that high-speed delivery model global. While PDD’s Temu is winning on price, JD is betting that as global consumers get richer, they will care more about getting their package in 24 hours than saving two dollars.
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Also, keep an eye on the spin-offs. JD Industrials is gearing up for its own IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise around US$420 million. These spin-offs are a classic JD move—unlocking value from subsidiaries so the parent company's balance sheet looks leaner.
Common Misconceptions About JD Stock
I hear this all the time: "JD is losing to Pinduoduo."
Sorta, but not really. Pinduoduo is where you go for a $3 phone case. JD is where you go for a $1,000 refrigerator. JD’s dominance in electronics and home appliances is nearly impossible to break because people want the warranty and the white-glove delivery that JD provides. In 2025, the government’s "trade-in" subsidy program for appliances gave JD a massive tailwind that PDD simply couldn't capture as effectively.
Another one: "The Chinese consumer is broke."
Consumer sentiment is definitely more cautious than it was in 2019, but JD's user base actually hit a new milestone of 700 million active customers in October 2025. People are still spending; they’re just being more selective. JD’s focus on "quality" aligns perfectly with a consumer who doesn't want to waste money on junk.
Strategic Next Steps for Investors
If you're looking at jd com stock hk as a potential addition to your portfolio, you need a plan that accounts for the volatility of the Hang Seng.
- Watch the Buyback Pace: JD still has about US$2.0 billion left in its current buyback authorization through 2027. If the stock stays below HK$120, expect them to keep canceling shares aggressively, which naturally boosts the earnings per share (EPS).
- Monitor the "New Business" Losses: The market will start rewarding JD once the losses in food delivery start narrowing. Right now, it's a drag. If that -100% margin improves to -50% in the next two quarters, the stock will likely re-rate higher.
- Hedge Your Currency: Since 9618 is tied to the HKD (which is pegged to the USD), you have some protection, but the underlying business earns in RMB. Pay attention to the CNY/USD exchange rate.
- The 2026 Store Opening: JD is opening its first physical "JD MALL" in Wan Chai, Hong Kong, in 2026. This isn't just a store; it's a branding play to show they are a premium, one-stop shop for digital products. It’s a litmus test for their physical retail strategy outside of the mainland.
Basically, JD is a company with the valuation of a dying retailer but the growth and infrastructure of a tech powerhouse. It’s not a "get rich quick" play—the macro headwinds are too strong for that. But for anyone who believes that the Chinese middle class isn't going anywhere, the current entry point for 9618 offers a margin of safety that is hard to find elsewhere in the global tech sector.