If you’ve been following Conference USA lately, you know the vibe. It’s gritty. It’s unpredictable. And whenever Jax State vs Middle Tenn pops up on the schedule, you can basically toss the record books out the window. People always talk about "rivalries," but this one feels like a backyard scrap between two neighbors who actually know each other’s secrets.
Honestly, the most recent football clash on October 29, 2025, was a perfect example of why this series is a headache for bettors and a dream for fans. Jacksonville State walked into Murfreesboro and escaped with a 24-21 win. It wasn't pretty. It was, in fact, kind of a mess for three quarters. But the Gamecocks have this weird habit of finding a way to win these midweek "CUSAction" games that would make most coaches lose their hair.
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The Football Flip: How Jax State Took Over
For a long time, Middle Tennessee owned this series. If you go back to the mid-20th century, the Blue Raiders were basically the big brothers of the region. But since Rich Rodriguez brought his "Hard Edge" brand of football to Jacksonville, things have shifted. Hard.
Jax State has now ripped off three straight wins against MTSU.
Last October, it was Deondre Johnson who absolutely tore the lid off the Blue Raider defense. He finished with 131 receiving yards and two touchdowns. On the other side, Nicholas Vattiato was doing everything he could to keep Middle Tennessee afloat, throwing for 235 yards, but the Blue Raiders just couldn't finish drives. They out-gained Jax State in passing, but they got bullied in the trenches.
Why the Ground Game Matters
Jax State ran for 143 yards compared to Middle Tennessee’s 84. In this conference, if you can’t stop the run, you’re basically cooked. Cam Cook was the workhorse, grinding out 105 yards on 21 carries. It wasn’t flashy. It was just persistent.
The year before, in 2024, it was even worse for Middle Tennessee. Jax State put up a 42-20 shellacking where Tre Stewart ran for a ridiculous 210 yards. You’ve gotta feel for the Blue Raiders' defensive coordinators over the last two years; they probably see Rich Rod’s zone-read schemes in their nightmares.
Basketball: Where the Tide Turns
Now, if you want to see Middle Tennessee fans get their swagger back, you look at the hardwood. While Jax State is currently dominating the grass, the Blue Raiders have historically been the kings of the court in this matchup.
Specifically, look at the 2024-25 season.
- January 11, 2025: MTSU wins 81-64.
- February 6, 2025: MTSU wins 77-63.
Middle Tennessee’s guard play is usually just a step faster. They play this suffocating style of defense at the Murphy Center that makes opposing point guards want to quit. However, the most recent chapter in March 2025 saw a massive upset. In the Conference USA Tournament semifinals, Jax State shocked everyone with a 70-68 win. Quel'Ron House—remember that name—hit two clutch free throws with 22 seconds left to seal it.
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The Current 2026 Situation
As we sit here in January 2026, the two programs are heading in slightly different directions. Middle Tennessee is currently sitting at 11-7 overall and 5-2 in CUSA play after a wild double-overtime win against Missouri State just yesterday. They’re finding ways to win the "tight ones" as coach Nick McDevitt likes to say.
Meanwhile, Jax State is hovering around .500 (9-9, 4-3 CUSA). They’re scrappy, but they lack the consistent scoring punch that MTSU has developed this year with Kamari Lands and Torey Alston.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Rivalry
Most fans think Jax State is "new" to this level. They think because they only recently moved to FBS and Conference USA, they should be the underdogs.
That’s a mistake.
Jax State has been a powerhouse at the FCS level for decades. They aren't "building" a program; they brought a ready-made winning culture with them. When they play Middle Tennessee, they don't see a "big brother" program. They see a target.
Conversely, people assume Middle Tennessee is in a permanent slump because of their football struggles. But look at the facilities. Look at the recruiting footprint in Nashville. They have the resources to flip the script at any moment. The 24-21 loss in October was a three-point game. One bounce of the ball and the narrative is totally different.
Key Stats That Actually Tell the Story
- Total Football Wins: Middle Tennessee leads the all-time series 14-4-2, but Jax State has won the last 4 in a row.
- The "Glass House" Factor: MTSU is notoriously hard to beat at home in basketball, holding a massive historical advantage over JSU in Murfreesboro.
- Turnover Margin: In the last three football meetings, Jax State has been +5 in turnovers. That is literally the entire difference.
What’s Next for These Two?
Mark your calendars for January 24, 2026.
That’s when the men’s basketball teams meet again. It’s going to be in Jacksonville this time. MTSU is coming in hot, and Jax State is looking to prove that their tournament upset last year wasn't a fluke.
If you're betting on this or just watching for fun, watch the pace. If the game stays in the 60s, it favors Jax State's defensive grind. If it pushes into the 80s, Middle Tennessee’s athletes will likely run away with it.
Actionable Insights for Fans
- Check the Injury Report for Vattiato: If you’re looking ahead to future football matchups, Middle Tennessee’s success is almost entirely tied to Nicholas Vattiato’s health. He’s the engine.
- Watch the First 5 Minutes of Basketball: Jax State tends to start slow. If MTSU jumps out to a 10-2 lead in their upcoming January 24th game, it usually stays that way.
- Recruiting Battles: Keep an eye on the transfer portal in the Birmingham and Nashville areas. These two schools are increasingly fighting over the same 3-star recruits who want to stay close to home.
The "New CUSA" is being defined by games like this. It’s not about the big-name brands of the Power 4; it’s about these regional dogfights where the history goes back to 1927, and the bad blood is very, very real.
Go watch the film from the October football game. Look at the way the lines were firing off the ball. It tells you everything you need to know: this isn't just a game on the schedule. It’s a fight for territory.
To stay ahead of the next matchup, keep a close eye on the Conference USA standings as we approach the conference tournaments in March. The seeding between these two usually comes down to a single game, making every head-to-head meeting a high-stakes affair for postseason positioning.