Winning Melbourne isn't what it used to be. For a solid decade, we basically just waited for Novak Djokovic to lift the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup, but the 2024 season snapped that reality in half. Jannik Sinner didn't just win; he re-engineered how a winner tennis Australian Open champion actually looks in the modern era. He’s tall. Skinny. Quiet. And he hits the ball with a terrifying amount of violence that makes you wonder how his strings don't just snap on every single point.
The shift was tectonic. If you watched that final against Daniil Medvedev, you saw a kid staring down a two-set deficit against a guy who plays like a backboard made of brick. Most players fold there. Honestly, most players did fold there for years. But Sinner stayed. He adjusted his court positioning, stopped trying to blow the ball through Medvedev’s chest, and started working the angles until the Russian’s legs finally gave out after nearly 24 hours of total tournament match time.
Why the 2024 Final Changed Everything for the ATP
People love to talk about the "Next Gen," but that term has been stale for years. It felt like a marketing gimmick while the Big Three kept winning everything. Then Sinner happened. By taking down Djokovic in the semifinals—breaking a winning streak at Rod Laver Arena that stretched back to 2018—he proved that the aura was gone. It wasn't a fluke. It was a demolition.
Djokovic himself admitted he was shocked by his own level, but that takes credit away from Jannik’s return game. Sinner’s ability to take the ball on the rise is arguably the best we've seen since Andre Agassi. He robs you of time. When you're playing a winner tennis Australian Open contender, time is the only currency that matters. If you can't breathe between shots, you suffocate. Medvedev suffocated. Even with a two-set lead, he looked like a man trying to outrun a wildfire in flip-flops by the end of the fourth set.
The Physics of the Sinner Forehand
The sound is different. If you’ve ever been courtside at Melbourne Park, you know the "pop" of a clean hit. Sinner’s hit sounds like a gunshot. Data from the 2024 tournament showed his average forehand speed was hovering around 80 mph, which is absurd when you realize he’s hitting it with that much topspin. It’s heavy. It’s deep. It forces opponents to play from the back fence, and at that point, you’ve already lost the point.
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What Most People Get Wrong About Winning in Melbourne
There’s this myth that the Australian Open is the "Happy Slam" where everyone is relaxed because it’s the start of the year. That’s total nonsense. It’s the "Cramp Slam." The heat on a Tuesday afternoon in January can hit 40°C, and the court surface—GreenSet—starts acting like a frying pan.
To be an Australian Open winner, your cardio has to be world-class, but your heat tolerance has to be superhuman. We saw it with Aryna Sabalenka on the women’s side too. She defended her title in 2024 by basically refusing to let any rally last longer than five seconds. She hit through everyone. It was brutalist tennis. If you can't handle the physical tax of the Plexicushion (or the modern GreenSet equivalent), you aren't making it to the second week. Period.
The Mental Burden of the First Major
Coming into Melbourne as a favorite is a nightmare. You’ve had a short off-season. You might have played a warm-up in Adelaide or Brisbane, but you aren't "match tough" yet. Sinner handled this by skipping the official warm-up tournaments entirely and just playing exhibitions. It was a gamble. It worked.
- Preparation: High-altitude training in the off-season.
- Tactics: Moving from a "basement" defender to an aggressive "inside-in" hitter.
- Nutrition: The famous "carrot" memes aren't just for show; the guy is obsessive about his fuel.
The Statistical Reality of the 2024 Breakthrough
Look at the numbers. They don't lie. Sinner saved nearly 80% of the break points he faced during the fortnight. That is the hallmark of a champion. When the pressure is highest, the greats find their first serve. In the final, after being broken early and looking completely out of sorts, Sinner’s first-serve percentage climbed every set.
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By the fifth, he was winning 89% of his first-serve points. Medvedev, meanwhile, was falling apart. The Russian had spent a record-breaking amount of time on court—over 24 hours across seven matches. You can be the fittest guy on tour, but the Australian Open winner is usually the guy who manages his "energy budget" the best. Sinner was efficient. He spent fewer hours on court leading up to the final, and that "freshness gap" was the literal difference between a trophy and a runner-up plate.
What It Takes to Win in 2025 and Beyond
If you're looking at who the next winner tennis Australian Open might be, you have to look at the surface speed. Lately, Melbourne has been playing faster. This favors the big servers and the flat hitters. Gone are the days when you could just grind for six hours like the 2012 Djokovic-Nadal final. The balls (Dunlop) tend to fluff up quickly in the heat, becoming heavy and harder to put away.
This creates a weird paradox. You need to hit hard to get the ball through the court, but if you hit too hard, you risk unforced errors because the ball is "big" in the air. Carlos Alcaraz found this out the hard way. He’s got all the shots, but his shot selection in the Melbourne humidity has occasionally let him down. Sinner, by contrast, simplified his game. He stopped trying to hit "winners" and started hitting "unreturnables."
The Djokovic Factor: Is the Reign Over?
You can't talk about Melbourne winners without the guy who won it ten times. 2024 was the first time Novak looked... human. Not bad, just human. He was dealing with a viral thing, sure, but the movement wasn't as elastic. The young guys aren't scared anymore. That’s the biggest shift. For a decade, players lost to Novak in the locker room. Now, they see Sinner and Alcaraz taking him to deep water and winning, and the collective belief of the locker room has skyrocketed.
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Actionable Insights for Tennis Fans and Players
If you're following the tour or trying to improve your own game based on what the pros do in Melbourne, here is the reality of modern hard-court tennis.
Focus on the Second Serve Return
Sinner won the Australian Open because he punished second serves. He stood inside the baseline and took the ball early. If you play club tennis, stop dinking the return back. Step in. Cut the angle. Even if you miss a few, the pressure you put on the server is a mental weight they eventually can't carry.
Hydration is a 48-Hour Process
The winners in Melbourne start hydrating two days before a match. If you wait until you're thirsty on the court, you've already lost 10% of your cognitive function. Use electrolytes, not just water. The pros are on a strict regimen of sodium and magnesium to prevent the catastrophic cramping we see in the Melbourne sun.
Manage Your Lateral Movement
Notice how Sinner slides on hard courts? It’s not just for show. It’s the most efficient way to change direction. If you aren't training your ankles and hips for that lateral load, you’re leaving court coverage on the table. However, don't try the "hard court slide" unless you have the right shoes and the core strength to pull it off, or you'll be heading to the physio instead of the trophy presentation.
Watch the "Big" Points
The next time you watch a Major, ignore the score. Watch the body language of the player who just blew a 40-0 lead. That’s where the match is won or lost. Sinner’s "poker face" in 2024 was his greatest weapon. He didn't yell, he didn't smash rackets, he just went to the towel and reset.
The era of the "Big Three" dominant winners is transitioning into an era of "Big Power." Whether it's Sinner, Alcaraz, or a resurgent veteran, the winner of the Australian Open will always be the player who can find a way to make the world's most grueling environment feel like a Sunday stroll. It takes more than just a good backhand. It takes a specific kind of mental callousness that only the Melbourne sun can forge.